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April 2nd - April 5th Severe Weather


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Dewpoints still in the mid-upper 50's across much of Illinois at this hour. I would expect them to increase somewhat with nightfall and continued low level moisture transport.

Lets hope so or else the tornado chances will be limited at best.

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Lets hope so or else the tornado chances will be limited at best.

Yeah...the 65+ degree dewpoints seem far fetched at this point. Don't want to speak too soon but it seems like things just may not come together this time. We should know in the next hour or two.

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Interesting volume scan near Tipton, Iowa.

Velocity, while weak, was enhanced at this time, and the reflectivity structure could be indicative of an anticyclonic appendage due to an RFD wrapping around.

Edit: This was from 00:34Z

We were on this storm as this time just northwest of Tipton and it tried to do something for awhile. It developed a nice base with a decent wall cloud for awhile but couldn't get any tight rotation. I will have pics later tonight or tomorrow.

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New RUC is noticeably less aggressive with dewpoints.

Maybe it's catching on to reality after being noticeably high in earlier runs today. This should be an impressive hail and straight line wind event. I still think that adequate low level moisture is the sine qua non for most tornadic events, even though I know that sig tors have occurred with 50ish dews at times. Gorgeous mammatus photos.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

855 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

WEST CENTRAL CHARITON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

EAST CENTRAL RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARDIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF

LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

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WFUS53 KEAX 040155

TOREAX

MOC033-041-177-195-040230-

/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0001.110404T0155Z-110404T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

855 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

WEST CENTRAL CHARITON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

EAST CENTRAL RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARDIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF

LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CARROLLTON...NORBORNE...BOSWORTH...BRUNSWICK...STET...BOGARD...

WAKENDA...MIAMI...DE WITT AND TRIPLETT.

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This moisture mixing out thing is getting old. I mean, it was expected, but still... and it looks to be an issue for the next couple of systems as well.

It will most certainly take a pattern reloading to develop a legitimate threat with legitimate moisture... that process may take a month.

post-22-0-60815400-1301882544.jpg

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