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April 2nd - April 5th Severe Weather


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THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN IOWA

WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI

FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT

OVER IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN IL.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE

WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI.

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516

WWUS20 KWNS 032256

SEL2

SPC WW 032256

IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-WIZ000-040500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

600 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN IOWA

WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI

FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

OTTUMWA IOWA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IOWA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT

OVER IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN IL.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE

WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL OR PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN WI.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.

...HART

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Wow, over 2 inch hail marker popping up already, almost 50,000 foot tops. Took only 3 scans.

The only reason it probably isn't already producing hail that large is that they just haven't had enough time to recycle through the updraft (probably water coated hail right now). But it should shortly...

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Incredible knuckles on the back sheared anvil!! Holy ****!

I don't even work there anymore, but pictures would be great for spotter training at DVN. ;)

I can imagine it's quite the site, that updraft went up like a rocket so the reverse convection must be equally intense.

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I was not expecting any storms around here. The NWS suggested anything good would be well south. That northern cell is something I have to watch. It may nail be or move across the south side of CR.

Agree. I wasn't expecting any around here in North Liberty either. Was expecting farther south. Well, I'm getting a new roof in 2 weeks anyways, although the northern storm may go north of town.

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109

WWUS20 KWNS 032320

SEL3

SPC WW 032320

KSZ000-MOZ000-040500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

620 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS

NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF MANHATTAN KANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE

MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG AND

NORTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST KS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED

TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE

WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH VERY

LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME

MORE OF A THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SURGE

SOUTHEASTWARD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...HART

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23Z Severe Weather Analysis. The Quincy, IL-Decatur,IL-Burlington, IA-Columia, MO is showing the highest instability, with still Quincy, IL holding the greatest threat of severe weather. 23Z indices show surface based CAPE around 2200(j/kg), 0-3KM Shear a tad bit lower but still around 55 knots. EHI's a bit higher at 3.4, and the 0-3KM SRH been holding right around 430 m/s. Values supporting F2/F3 isolated tornado, wind gusts 70 knots and hail around 2" across this area. 23Z analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf

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