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April 2nd - April 5th Severe Weather


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21Z still showing highest instability across the Quincy to Decatur, Kansas City, and Lafeyette, IN areas. With the Quincy area with the highest instability values. Overall surface CAPE's holding around 2200(j/kg), 0-3KM shear running around 60 kts, with Decatur hitting a max of 68knots of shear at 0-3km points. 0-1KM EHI's still around 2-3, and 0-3KM SRH holding around 440 m/s. 21Z Analysis uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0449 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA...NWRN IL

AND FAR SW WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032149Z - 032245Z

TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 22-23Z AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE

POSSIBLE. WW IS LIKELY...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT CHANCE.

CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEEPENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN

IA AND EXTREME NCNTRL MO WITHIN A WEAKENING CAP ALONG NOSE OF STEEP

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. APPROACH OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...NOW

OVER ERN NEB...WILL LIKELY BOOST OVERALL ASCENT AND AID IN TSTM

INITIATION ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN IA BY 23Z...SIMILAR TO LATEST RAPID

REFRESH AND RUC SOLUTIONS. ONCE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...

MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE APPROACH COLD FRONT LATER THIS

EVENING INTO NCNTRL MO...THOUGH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CAP RENDERS

MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THIS AREA.

..RACY.. 04/03/2011

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