Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 83/63 KC downtown....broad swath of 80 temps just primed as a powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just crossed into Iowa at Burlington. Gonna head west towards Mt. Pleasant or Fairfield. My home computer took a crap on me this morning, so I don't know if I'll be able to get on later tonight when I get back. Looks like I'll be buying a new one tomorrow. Anyway, a little worried about the cap holding. Some of the RUC runs keep it just strong enough to hold off initiation until after sunset. The other parameters are so good we couldn't pass this up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Were at Wendys in Muscatine, IA (same thing as June 5th) you know my superstitious problem lol but going to be heading north and east from here closer to the warm front/triple point where the more favorable low-level flow will be. Dont like down near BRL and into MO due to the veered sfc winds and think things will go linear quickly. Any shot at a tornadic supercell I think is going to be northeast IA into northwest IL *if* the moisture can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Ummm, heavy snow here???!??! wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 ACCAS streaming northward on satellite in western IL, eastern IA, and ne MO. 990 surface low near Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I think N Il is the area to watch for tornadoes 7-11pm..S IA may bust CAP..time will tell It just looks "cappy" on Sat. now over MO into s IA but some CU may be going up over eastern IA now under the cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 We are targetting the Macomb area - mainly because it has a nice road network and shoot North/South and East/West from there. Should be there within an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Pretty thick cirrus here in southeast Iowa is pretty frustrating LOL. I still like this area with the better instability and increasing LLJ early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Sitting in Sterling/Rockfalls, IL. I'll probably head towards DVN on I-88 and then figure out where to go from there. Looks like most are going with the southern target in the Burlington/Galesburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I think N Il is the area to watch for tornadoes 7-11pm..S IA may bust CAP..time will tell It just looks "cappy" on Sat. now over MO into s IA but some CU may be going up over eastern IA now under the cirrus We agree. Some serious low-level shear juxtaposed with more than decent instability in extreme eastern IA north of I-80 into northwest IL at 0z. If a discrete supercell goes up before dark its going to have to produce, will have southerly to even slightly backed sfc winds in that area. The latest RUC has the sfc low pretty far south at 0z in eastern IA, centered close to IOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 sveral 90 degree readings in eastern kanas..wow 90/58 LAWRENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 sveral 90 degree readings in eastern kanas..wow 90/58 LAWRENCE Can you say "well-mixed boundary layer?" Dew points look to be running 3-5 F below model consensus throughout most of the warm sector. Lots of mid-upper 90s behind the dryline. DDC has already smashed their record by several degrees. CDS sitting at a cool 100 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 a 988mb sfc low just north of DSM as of 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 19Z update, my model starting to now catch up to the changes, with more surface data history now available. Highest threat spreading in a line from Kansas City to Quincy, IL to Decatur, IL to just north of St. Louis. Quincy, IL area has the greatest threat of Tornadoes, as of 19Z,seeing 0-3Km Shear around 61kts, 0-1KM EHI are 3.4, and 0-3KM SRH around 353 with overall CAPE's around 2000 (J/kg). I think area from Decatur to Quincy will be the most action. As for further south into E. KS and OK into N. TX, again capping is the main issue, but trying to show hints of possible Isolated convection in that area. 19Z City Specific Severe analysis is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 No 18Z soundings? I don't see any yet at SPC, and I would have expected EAX and vicinity to have launched a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Quincy has 1500-1700 LCL's at present in that area...would want to see that lower....KC has around 1250 as does the area in northern IL near the WI line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Could be some fun for LAF (& OKK) later... Ref: http://www.kokomo-weather.com/RUC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 107 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011 ..UPDATED PUBLIC/CLIMATE/AVIATION DISCUSSIONS DISCUSSION ..MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 12Z KTOP SOUNDING NOT SURPRISING IN THE LEAST WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. 60-70 KNOT LLJ OVERNIGHT DELIVERED AS EXPECTED...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S WITH NOONTIME TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS WILL SURELY BE BROKEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SHIFTING FOCUS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND LOW 60F DEWPOINTS WILL ALONE BE INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE INCREDIBLE 22C 850MB TEMPERATURE PRESENT ON THE KTOP 12Z SOUNDING. IN FACT CANT EVER RECALL SEEING A CAP THIS STRONG THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS ALSO EXTREMELY DRY AND THUS HAS AMPLE ROOM TO COOL IF LIFT IS APPLIED. BOTTOM LINE...WHEN MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS THE CAP IS BREAKABLE WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING THIS OCCURRING ALONG A ST. JOSEPH TO LAMONI IOWA LINE SOMEWHERE IN THE 23 TO 00Z WINDOW. VERY STEEP /NEAR DRY ADIABATIC/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY APPROACHING 2500 J/KG...MOST OF WHICH IS LOADED IN THE PREFERRED HAIL GROWTH REGION. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE. THE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR REMAINS AN ISSUE...AS THE HODOGRAPH REMAINS LARGELY BUNCHED ABOVE 2KM WITH WINDS UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE WSW AT 40-45 KNOTS. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AT INITIATION...STRONG FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT A LINEAR MODE MAY BE QUICKLY ATTAINED. IN ADDITION...INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE SHORT LIFE SPANS AS STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE SOUTHEAST SURGING COLD FRONT. THE LAST NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE WITH THE STRONG VEERED SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE LACK OF PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF TWO FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE CYCLONES ACROSS IOWA AND SW KS. ALL IN ALL...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD BECOME THE ONLY THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST STORMS ARE UNDERCUT AT THE SURFACE. A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES OR AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE...BUT AGAIN THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 We're at a state park southwest of Washington Iowa. Looks like these high clouds will be clearing out of here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Current OBS from LSX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO LAKE MI VICINITY... ..SE IA/N IL AND MO/E KS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A GENERAL SW-NE NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM AROUND THE KC METRO TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE MO/QUINCY IL...TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHWEST IL INCLUDING NEAR/EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP SUGGESTS THIS COULD OCCUR BY AROUND 23Z-00Z...WITH A SIMILAR/BUT A FEW HOUR DELAYED SOLUTION AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z WRF-NMM. INITIALLY...FAST EASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS /40-45 KT/ ARE PROBABLE...INCLUDING ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...BEFORE A QUASI-LINEAR MODE /INCLUDING BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ BECOMES DOMINANT BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEE PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW AND ANY SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 DVN downplaying tornadoes TONIGHT...LOCAL CALCULATIONS COMBINED WITH MET-WATCH TOOLS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL IOWA. CHALLENGE IS LIMITED FORCING ALOFT WITH BEST CONVECTION SUGGESTED TO OCCUR IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. COOL DRY AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOCAL SUB-CLOUD SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES ATTM UNLESS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOLF BALL TO POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IN THE VERY STRONGEST STORM UPDRAFTS... ALONG WITH 60 TO 70+ MPH WINDS DUE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOTS OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF LOW LEVEL JET. THESE ARE BASED ON SBCAPE OF 1200-1600 J/KG DERIVED FROM T/TD VALUES OF ~77/60 DEGREES. CONCEPTUAL TRENDS AND FORCING SUGGEST THE SOUTH 1/3 SECTIONS ARE MOST AT RISK AS THESE STORMS TO COALESCE INTO A LINE BY MID EVENING. BEST TOOLS AT 2 PM...SUGGEST NORTH MISSOURI MAY BE AT RISK FOR THE LARGEST HAIL AND STRONGEST WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Surface low passing near Des Moines for sure. Slater profiler showing 925 mb winds out of the southeast now (as opposed to the west southwest they were last hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 We have left Muscatine heading to Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Mid-level lapse rates between 8-9 C/km over the entire area with LL lapse rates on the rise with instability slowly getting better just head of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I currently have thundersleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 EML going to promote some large hail this evening. Already approaching 500 J/kg in the hail growth zone and steep mid level lapse rates. Pretty impressive for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 69 at MDW....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 73/57 at MXO which is just southwest of DBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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