jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 15Z numbers are already getting there. Now...about the CINH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 15Z numbers are already getting there. Now...about the CINH. you want to use MLCAPE or SBCAPE for surface based storms and tornadoes not MUCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The moisture highway has opened for traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 you want to use MLCAPE or SBCAPE for surface based storms and tornadoes not MUCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 My fav set of data - did well last year in my area (did well in the winter, as well) http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ New run comes out in a few hours Glad SPC moved the highest probs to the east and south for tomorrow - looks better now on their outlook. Figure we end up with a moderate somewhere from south central KY down into MS/AL. See how it goes. WINDY here today - gusts already over 40 mph. I am expecting gusts over 50 here at my place. It's windy, for sure. The Bradford Pear trees are flowering, and the wind is blowing the flowers off. It looks like snow in my neighbor's yard! Farmington, MO dewpoint from 38 to 54 in less than 2 hours. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Since this is now out of region for me, the AWIPS satellite resolution is pretty poor. So I usually default to College of DuPage's analysis page, and I'm just noticing all the work they have done on it. Great stuff, and you can now perform a basic mesoanalysis overlays on satellite images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 15z RUC breaks out quite a bit of precip before 00z now LLJ " weakens"(still 45 kts) over that area at 21z but picks up again at 00z per RUC I see no reason why Chicago wont be under the gun later around midnight with a threat of tornadoes also extreme S WI seems a tad more north now, they get in the warm sector just ahead of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Since this is now out of region for me, the AWIPS satellite resolution is pretty poor. So I usually default to College of DuPage's analysis page, and I'm just noticing all the work they have done on it. Great stuff, and you can now perform a basic mesoanalysis overlays on satellite images. Ya they guys here at COD did a great job with it and I can't wait to use the overlays later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 One of the more ominous non-severe cells I have seen bearing down on MKE. The size of the cell is pretty large, but apparently pea sized hail is the extent of the severe parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 RUC seems about 5 degrees too high with dews...they seem to be mixing out now 62-63 looks likley over IL/IA versus the 65+ it is showing later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 14z HRRR has monster supercell going up near KC around 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 15z RUC breaks out quite a bit of precip before 00z now LLJ " weakens"(still 45 kts) over that area at 21z but picks up again at 00z per RUC I see no reason why Chicago wont be under the gun later around midnight with a threat of tornadoes also extreme S WI seems a tad more north now, they get in the warm sector just ahead of the low The RUC forecast soundings in northern Illinois are rather ominous later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 16:30z out no change..smaller 10% TOR maybe DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN APR 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING FROM NE KS INTO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS/OK NEWD TO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA... ..SYNOPSIS AN INITIAL CYCLONE ALONG THE NW IA/SW MN BORDER WILL MOVE EWD TO SRN WI THIS EVENING AND LOWER MI OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SECONDARY LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE KS/CO BORDER...AND THIS CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN KS THIS EVENING. S OF THE TRIPLE POINT...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL EXPAND NEWD TODAY ACROSS MO/SE IA/IL AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE MOVES EWD. ..SRN LAKE MI AREA TODAY /NE OF THE WARM FRONT/ ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER E CENTRAL/SE WI IN A ZONE OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ESEWD OVER SRN LAKE MI...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO WELL NE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A RESULT OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ..SE IA/NW IL/NRN MO/ERN KS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM KS/OK TO MO/SE IA/WRN IL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S INTO NW IL/SE IA AND WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS ERN KS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONG CAP ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT /ALONG THE COLD FRONT/ WILL BE NECESSARY FOR STORM INITIATION BY THIS EVENING FROM E/NE KS ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD SE IA/NW IL. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE PROBABLE IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH A MORE LINEAR MODE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONT-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME THE MORE COMMON THREATS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO/IL. ..ERN OK/WRN AR/N AND NE TX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT JUST E OF THE DRYLINE IN OK AND N TX. STILL...THE VERY STRONG CAP IS UNLIKELY TO BE BREACHED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 One of the more ominous non-severe cells I have seen bearing down on MKE. The size of the cell is pretty large, but apparently pea sized hail is the extent of the severe parameters. That is pretty sweet.. heard some thunder while letting the dog out but didn't think much of it with temps in the 30's.. Glad I seen your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Talk about enhanced RUC parameters for northern IL this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 RUC seems about 5 degrees too high with dews...they seem to be mixing out now 62-63 looks likley over IL/IA versus the 65+ it is showing later Agreed. It's ridiculously overdone in the Southern Plains right now. Have a sneaking suspicion this will become a trend in 2011. The 65 F isodrosotherm is supposed to be encompassing the majority of the warm sector right now (TX/OK/AR/MO) according to the 15z run, but I can't find a single ASOS site or Mesonet station showing those values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 pea size hail pouring down! First time in yrs I've seen legit stuff.. just getting a glancing blow here of course.. looks worse to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 RUC forecast sounding for Aurora, Illinois at 3z Some of these parameters are reminiscent of 6/5/10. Main differences are that it's cooler with less moisture (it is 2 months earlier after all) and in this case we have more of a southerly flow at the surface veering to wsw aloft. 6/5 was south-southwest/southwest at the surface to wnw aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Meh..The brisk NE wind off of Lake Huron has me concerned about limiting the WAA for my area. At 37-38 degree water temp , it acts as a giant AC machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I can't believe I'm saying this but I think we just had thundersleet lol! What prompted severe thunderstorm warnings northwest of here gave us sleet. Talk about a weatherfail; showers and temperatures in the 40s getting to 50 turning into thundersleet. It would be awesome if we can still get our storms tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 16:30z out no change..smaller 10% TOR maybe DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN APR 03 2011 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING FROM NE KS INTO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS/OK NEWD TO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA... ..SYNOPSIS AN INITIAL CYCLONE ALONG THE NW IA/SW MN BORDER WILL MOVE EWD TO SRN WI THIS EVENING AND LOWER MI OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SECONDARY LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE KS/CO BORDER...AND THIS CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN KS THIS EVENING. S OF THE TRIPLE POINT...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL EXPAND NEWD TODAY ACROSS MO/SE IA/IL AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE MOVES EWD. ..SRN LAKE MI AREA TODAY /NE OF THE WARM FRONT/ ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER E CENTRAL/SE WI IN A ZONE OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ESEWD OVER SRN LAKE MI...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO WELL NE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A RESULT OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ..SE IA/NW IL/NRN MO/ERN KS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM KS/OK TO MO/SE IA/WRN IL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S INTO NW IL/SE IA AND WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS ERN KS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONG CAP ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT /ALONG THE COLD FRONT/ WILL BE NECESSARY FOR STORM INITIATION BY THIS EVENING FROM E/NE KS ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD SE IA/NW IL. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE PROBABLE IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH A MORE LINEAR MODE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONT-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME THE MORE COMMON THREATS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO/IL. ..ERN OK/WRN AR/N AND NE TX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT JUST E OF THE DRYLINE IN OK AND N TX. STILL...THE VERY STRONG CAP IS UNLIKELY TO BE BREACHED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WNW. Moderate risk was extended a 'smidgen' to the NE in Central MO just North of CoMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Scratch that, it might be hail although I'm inside so I can't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just crossed the Illinois/Indiana line - very windy. Also saw several LSR's of 50 mph + wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just crossed the Illinois/Indiana line - very windy. Also saw several LSR's of 50 mph + wind gusts. Yeah, gusts in the low 50's from Springfield over to Champaign. Didn't know you planned to chase this system today. Good luck. Give us some good reports. Hope it makes up for all the sleet and ice you had to endure in your area this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Yeah, gusts in the low 50's from Springfield over to Champaign. Didn't know you planned to chase this system today. Good luck. Give us some good reports. Hope it makes up for all the sleet and ice you had to endure in your area this winter. Yeah me and 2 of my friends who are both met majors at BSU decided to chance it - to nice of a day to pass up a good chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Just looking at my 17Z analysis, showing the highest instability lying across the Kansas City-Topeka-Emporia-Clinton,MO line. Tracking current surface CAPE's around 1800-2000(j/kg), 0-3KM Shear is pretty impressive, showing around 60-65 knots, with the 0-1KM Shear at an impressive 50knots more than enough to help support rotation within these storms. City Specific Severe Weather Analysis uploaded: http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 We are literally laughing out loud watching some of the birds try to fly in this wind - it is quite entertaining as they literally don't move for minutes. Very very windy - in Decatur right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 We are literally laughing out loud watching some of the birds try to fly in this wind - it is quite entertaining as they literally don't move for minutes. Very very windy - in Decatur right now. I just left the Decatur area not too long ago headed towards Rushville...I saw a report from the Decatur airport of a 49 mph wind gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 temps somewhat overperforming here up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 80 degrees here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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