janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 12z RUC looks like it tries to develop stuff before 00z now over S IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 LaCrosse takes the honor for the first svr report of the day...for hail I would say so, the KDVN 88D can see 50 dBZ over 30kft up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hmm. We were thinking about the Galesburg/Monmouth areas too, but the more I look at the RUC I think we're gonna go into southeast Iowa. The RUC is considerably more bullish with low-level shear there compared to the NAM. That area also has much better instability than further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Also, just playing around with some numbers from the RUC forecast for this afternoon before the forecast crunch time hits up here in Maine. With the expected wind fields, and afternoon temps of 75/60 near Galesburg I come up with wind gusts around 50 knots and the potential for tornadic winds well into EF3 range (thanks in large part to large values of 0-1km shear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Overdone, but wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM no longer has anything before 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Hmm. We were thinking about the Galesburg/Monmouth areas too, but the more I look at the RUC I think we're gonna go into southeast Iowa. The RUC is considerably more bullish with low-level shear there compared to the NAM. That area also has much better instability than further east. Maybe Burlington IA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 We're thinking about Fairfield Iowa now. RUC forecasts 1km SRH near 250m2/s2 under 4000j/kg of cape. Nice dryline punching east towards that area too. Good luck to anyone chasing out there today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Kansas City has gone from a dewpoint of 42 to 62 in 6 hours. 60 Tds look like a real possibility now over the target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM no longer has anything before 00z Gets going right after 00z though since this is 3 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM more unstable over N IL at 06z then 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Gets going right after 00z though since this is 3 hours later Holy S**t! I've never seen such high reflectivity values off the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM more unstable over N IL at 06z Yeah the NAM is moving towards the GFS with respect to instability in the Northern risk areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM also looks loike it has dewpoints 60+ more east at 12z Monday and slighly slower too(60 dews slightly more west)..waiting on 18z data... update: 18z with 60+ dews into OHIO more unstable then 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Here's an idea of the MU CAPE already advecting northward, I don't know of any model having 3000+ J/Kg MU CAPE already in MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM would have an MCS developing across NE KS this evening, moving across N MO into central Illinois overnight and ending up near Detroit and NW OH, NE IN by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM would have an MCS developing across NE KS this evening, moving across N MO into central Illinois overnight and ending up near Detroit and NW OH, NE IN by morning. I'll take it, will make for a quick shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 12z HRRR ignites what looks like supercells near Ottumwa at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Tomorrow evening. The line is going before this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Kirksville's dewpoint up 7 degrees to 49 in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM playing catch up on moisture return over the deep south into TN..12z much more moist then 00z and it still looks behind some as of 14z This will have an impact further north tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm pretty sure last year around this time was when SEMI got its first severe storm...I pretty good hailer that moved through Oakland county. Actually a pretty simmilar situation...snowstorm here in Colorado where I'm at on vacation, and severe storms in MI... I'll wait till something actually fires up over my house before I get too upset though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM playing catch up on moisture return over the deep south into TN..12z much more moist then 00z and it still looks behind some as of 14z You can really see the deeper moisture return on IR, over central Arkansas especially. Since the moist airmass will be cooler (remember evaporation is a cooling process) it will show up "brigther" on the IR images. So you can see the brighter airmass quickly surging towards Missouri. A quick distance/time on that leading edge would have it over central Illinois in about 10 hours (or 00z). Edit: That and now that we have visible you can see it with the stratocu along the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 tamer now(also 30 over N MS tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Here's an idea of the MU CAPE already advecting northward, I don't know of any model having 3000+ J/Kg MU CAPE already in MO IIRC, the SREF was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 My fav set of data - did well last year in my area (did well in the winter, as well) http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ New run comes out in a few hours Glad SPC moved the highest probs to the east and south for tomorrow - looks better now on their outlook. Figure we end up with a moderate somewhere from south central KY down into MS/AL. See how it goes. WINDY here today - gusts already over 40 mph. I am expecting gusts over 50 here at my place. This one combines both the NMM and ARW on the same page. I'm going thru withdraw now that Ryan's simulated NMM/ARW radar page was taken down from FSU's website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 More elevated showers forming on the edge of the EML/greatest moisture transport. Almost right on top of DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I guess the severe weather in SE Wisconsin is already commencing. Just northwest of Milwaukee are a couple decent storms with golf ball size hail; looking pretty dark off to the north/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm at the western edge of the action...praying that I get something before the real show starts 50 miles to the east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Thanks - I will need to bookmark that one No problem Beau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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