TheWeatherPimp Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 While I rarely start threads, particularly this far in advanced, the potential looks above normal for a widespread severe weather event early next week. All of the models, particularly the GFS and EURO are implying what could be a significant severe weather threat beginning on Saturday, April 2nd and continuing through Tuesday, April 5th. While the event is a week away (there really isn't much to talk about severe weather wise before then) the model consistency for the extended has really been pretty remarkable. While there are still timing issues, the threat appears to be on the table with all of the model guidance. Moisture does not appear to be a problem with an abundant return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I would add the 2nd as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This is definitely one to watch in the coming days. Moisture return doesn't look too bad for this time of year and there is evidence on the current model runs of a rather robust EML advecting eastward into the Ohio Valley and possibly Great Lakes. Cap could be a concern, especially farther south and west toward the Plains, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 I would add the 2nd as well. Done - I have some doubts about Saturday - but the possibility is there. Plenty to work out, but at least there is something to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z Euro made some slight adjustments from the 00z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I have a feeling, looking at the three days in question, capping issues will be huge in Texas and probably Oklahoma, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 18z GFS continues to hint at next saturday but the instability/moisture aren't that great but still days away. There are some beautiful wind profiles being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 18z GFS continues to hint at next saturday but the instability/moisture aren't that great but still days away. There are some beautiful wind profiles being shown. Awesome... now we just have to wait for the NAM to suddenly show the warm front 500 mi. farther south as soon as it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If the 12z GFS were to verify, I'd definitely be chasing in west-central Illinois next Sunday. Bulk shear values of almost 60knts below H5. Nice clockwise turning hodos. Strong wind fields just off the surface. Late Sunday the GFS pools 65+ dewpoints in western Illinois as well. Too bad it's a week away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If the 12z GFS were to verify, I'd definitely be chasing in west-central Illinois next Sunday. Bulk shear values of almost 60knts below H5. Nice clockwise turning hodos. Strong wind fields just off the surface. Late Sunday the GFS pools 65+ dewpoints in western Illinois as well. Too bad it's a week away lol. over 50ts at H7...storms would be hauling, I would gamble in KS/OK the day before with a strong cap but it's still days away so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Awesome... now we just have to wait for the NAM to suddenly show the warm front 500 mi. farther south as soon as it gets in range. Ya with the way setups have played out this far with the models struggling in handling them and not having the moisture, I'm not getting my hopes up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 over 50ts at H7...storms would be hauling, I would gamble in KS/OK the day before with a strong cap but it's still days away so we'll see what happens. Seems like storms are almost always hauling in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Seems like storms are almost always hauling in this part of the country. If it wasn't for 45mph storm motions on 6/5 last year I could of got right of next to the Yates City/Elmwood tornado lol. I believe the tornadic supercell on 6/7/08 in northern IL was moving at a decent speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it wasn't for 45mph storm motions on 6/5 last year I could of got right of next to the Yates City/Elmwood tornado lol. I believe the tornadic supercell on 6/7/08 in northern IL was moving at a decent speed. Yeah storm motion in this region tends to make chasing a lot harder. I know all the chases I have been on have had speeds of at least 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ya with the way setups have played out this far with the models struggling in handling them and not having the moisture, I'm not getting my hopes up yet. I'm not going to take any setup seriously until we lose the perpetual eastern troughing. Saturday looks abysmal in that regard on the GFS, with a huge H5 vortex along the New England coastline and 540 dm heights down to Baltimore. This tends to keep surface ridging locked in place over the eastern part of the CONUS, and the end result is cool/dry air hanging around a lot longer and farther south than the medium-range global models indicate. I really feel like we need a fundamental pattern change/reload, likely starting with a period of ridging east of the Rockies, before anything too big will happen this Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'll believe it when I see it unfold. The H5 setup is actually extremely complex with possible interactions between the main energy and a trough off the coast of SoCal. Various model runs have shown everything from a full-blown outbreak to a sheared out trough. Not to mention that ugly trough offshore E Coast, cirrus shields from a subtropical UL moisture tap, deadly caps, and WSW H85's... just a short list of things that can go wrong even if the synoptic setup produces a good-looking system. (And in fact, the 12Z GFS shows just that. And yes I know not to take 180h progs literally.) I really feel like we need a fundamental pattern change/reload, likely starting with a period of ridging east of the Rockies, before anything too big will happen this Spring. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it wasn't for 45mph storm motions on 6/5 last year I could of got right of next to the Yates City/Elmwood tornado lol. I believe the tornadic supercell on 6/7/08 in northern IL was moving at a decent speed. There was a photogenic landspout southwest of here in 2006...I think it was moving at like 10 mph but of course I wasn't around to chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it wasn't for 45mph storm motions on 6/5 last year I could of got right of next to the Yates City/Elmwood tornado lol. I believe the tornadic supercell on 6/7/08 in northern IL was moving at a decent speed. Went back and looked at that '08 event...storm motion was only 25-30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Seems like storms are almost always hauling in this part of the country. Yeah, especially in March and April. Sometimes you only get one shot at something. It's worth a shot though if the setup is good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah, especially in March and April. Sometimes you only get one shot at something. It's worth a shot though if the setup is good IMO. ofcourse, If anyone was watching the IA event last tuesday it was interesting to see the supercells slow done once they got bigger and closer to the warm front. They went from moving at 50mph to 35mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Its more than region, its time of year, I heard Vortex 2 waited until later because of generally slower storm motions and easier chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z guidance looking pretty favorable - SPC mentioned the threat briefly in their Day 4-8 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z guidance looking pretty favorable - SPC mentioned the threat briefly in their Day 4-8 outlook 00z Euro went nuts with a 976 mb low in Wisconsin at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z Euro went nuts with a 976 mb low in Wisconsin at 192 hours. It brings 55 dew points up to the south side of Chicago. Still lots of time for things to change but not liking my chances for a sat/sun chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It brings 55 dew points up to the south side of Chicago. Still lots of time for things to change but not liking my chances for a sat/sun chase. The individual solutions are flip flopping but the overall theme remains the same. It would be nice to lose that eastern troughing beforehand but that looks unlikely. Moisture return could still be decent but not ideal unless we see some wholesale change in the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 12z GFS with a 989 mb low near Waukegan, Illinois at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z Euro went nuts with a 976 mb low in Wisconsin at 192 hours. Apri-bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If it wasn't for 45mph storm motions on 6/5 last year I could of got right of next to the Yates City/Elmwood tornado lol. I believe the tornadic supercell on 6/7/08 in northern IL was moving at a decent speed. Yeah, no kidding, great road network there, but that storm was hauling pretty fast. I got within 300 yards or so of it, as it was paralleling the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah, no kidding, great road network there, but that storm was hauling pretty fast. I got within 300 yards or so of it, as it was paralleling the road. Ya we screwed up a bit about 20 mins before the first tornado came down and ended up never getting back ahead of it and viewing all tornadoes from the west and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z GFS is showing H7 temps across all of IL on sunday of >8 degrees and near 10 in southern IL....eek. But thanks to a 120kt H5 jet, it still pops some stuff in the area. Storms would be moving so fast they would need their own I-PASS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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