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SUN 12z NAM showing Rn/Sn mix as far south as Charlotte for 3/28

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

WRAL is going full speed ahead with their forecast. Oh my!

I don't think I've ever known WRAL to have the guts to put out a forecast like this considering the time of year we're in. The southward extension of their snow area reaches all the way down to the northern portions of Cleveland, Gaston, and Mecklenburg counties which I think is too far south, as I40 would be the more ideal area to go along with.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Too ballsy IMO, they're going to be humiliated, even if they change it last minute tonight. Never have I seen such a forecast this far into March. Raleigh NWS (Vincent) is right, a rain to mix situation is much more likely for our area, now out W and NW of Raleigh that's another story, maybe. :thumbsup:

This snuck up on me as probably a few of you too, so lets get this thread going! Model time :scooter:

I agree. I could easily foresee this as a situation where we get a few hours of heavy snow, but get minimal accumulations (and no accumulations on the roads) due to the soil temps being so warm. Plus, temperatures themselves look like they could be around or above 32 degrees throughout the event, so it's not like we're going to be seeing powdery snow with temps in the 20s with this one.

The GFS makes me nervous, too, since it really isn't even close to showing snow.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

314 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS AND BLUE RIDGE...

.A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY

MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS

THE LOW APPROACHES. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO

SNOW...WITH A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED RIGHT

AROUND SUNRISE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY MID-

MORNING ON MONDAY.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-280315-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.110328T0600Z-110328T1600Z/

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE

314 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM

TO NOON EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE

BLUE RIDGE OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT

RIDGE TOPS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADS.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Channel 17 in Raleigh isn't as bullish as WRAL

Jeremy's Forecast: Cloudy tonight with a low of 32. Rain moves in Monday morning, which could mix with a bit of sleet and freezing rain in some of our northern VA border counties. Showers will taper off after noon, with a high of 46. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the Triangle northward Monday night, with lows dropping back into the lower 30s.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

A little surprised I don't see as many people where excited about such a late season threat. I guess most have already checked out for the winter considering how warm it has been the last 2 weeks. Once again I want to highlight the current convection occurring all over Arkansas. The fact that even the RUC has this activity largely absent should make forecasters upstream rather uneasy... I'd be more inclined to believe the wetter models like the NAM over the GFS at this point.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

the GFS can be discarded completely now. Its too light on qpf already out west, and the 850 initiliazation is off...its too warm. The RUC and NAM init. much better and closer to reality. Speaking of RUC, it is still bullish on the cold sagging slightly ever southward tomorrow morning through the event, so northern NC is def. in the ball game for this one. The timing couldn't be better...throw in a weak 850 circulation , good damming and the axis of moisture, if its placed properly (still uncertain), then the flakes could come down hard and very large fluffy flakes at that, outside the mountains. A snow chase might be in order tomorrow morning between HKY Taylorsville to Greensboro initially that might carry on toward RDU as well. A fun system to watch unfold.

RUC forecast between 12z and 15z..during the heart of this short event.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

A little surprised I don't see as many people where excited about such a late season threat. I guess most have already checked out for the winter considering how warm it has been the last 2 weeks. Once again I want to highlight the current convection occurring all over Arkansas. The fact that even the RUC has this activity largely absent should make forecasters upstream rather uneasy... I'd be more inclined to believe the wetter models like the NAM over the GFS at this point.

yeah that is the big question...where does the best axis of precip lie in the morning and midday? I personally think its another good precip event. The GFS doesnt' think so. Already its looking good, this time the cold is already in place and sagging slowly south..so this is going to catcha lot of folks in the public off guard..kinda like the viewers who were expecting upper 50's and low 60s this weekend around Charlotte and the Upstate were. Its such a quick moving system it may just be a novelty, but snow in the piedmont in March is noteworthy even if just falling and not accumulating. If somehow, the moisture can overperform, it could be a nice little white surprise in the morning for the northwest piedmont, but it would probably melt about on impact outside the mountains unless it really comes down hard.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

All right! So, Robert and Phil both think I'm sitting pretty. This is pretty cool to be chasing snow possibilities this late. Is it ever really too late to appreciate snow!? :thumbsup: Nope!! I'd enjoy it in July if I could get it!

well its still no guarantee where you are, but thats my favorite spot for this chance. Somewhere between Boone Lenoir Taylorsville Wilkesboro Mt Airy to Greensboro and the Triad. If the rates aren't good, it would probably be slop or rain, but if rates can get very good, like the RUC and NAM have , then it could flip to snow in a flash. As usual, it will come down to the wire on this.

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

well its still no guarantee where you are, but thats my favorite spot for this chance. Somewhere between Boone Lenoir Taylorsville Wilkesboro Mt Airy to Greensboro and the Triad. If the rates aren't good, it would probably be slop or rain, but if rates can get very good, like the RUC and NAM have , then it could flip to snow in a flash. As usual, it will come down to the wire on this.

At least the precip isn't going to chase the cold air, or vise versa. :snowman:

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

yeah that is the big question...where does the best axis of precip lie in the morning and midday? I personally think its another good precip event. The GFS doesnt' think so. Already its looking good, this time the cold is already in place and sagging slowly south..so this is going to catcha lot of folks in the public off guard..kinda like the viewers who were expecting upper 50's and low 60s this weekend around Charlotte and the Upstate were. Its such a quick moving system it may just be a novelty, but snow in the piedmont in March is noteworthy even if just falling and not accumulating. If somehow, the moisture can overperform, it could be a nice little white surprise in the morning for the northwest piedmont, but it would probably melt about on impact outside the mountains unless it really comes down hard.

While the NAM and RUC are initializing better in regards to temperature, the fact they aren't really seeing much of the precipitation occurring over Arkansas currently leaves me a little concerned....

I really like your placement of the heaviest snow boundary... my thinking is that KHKY actually looks better for some accumulating snowfall as opposed to KAVL, which is along a very strong 925mb temperature gradient. The key thing to watch is if this precipitation can move in early enough. The precipitation already in Arkansas indicates to me that it should make it here with some night to spare even for areas further east. Areas further into the wedge, in the piedmont of NC should be able to switch over quickly to snow if the rates are heavy enough, although things will likely change back over to rain as the rates decrease once again and the sun warms up the boundary layer. Areas like Asheville though, will have to rely on adiabatic flow up the mountains, a configuration where we need southeasterly winds at the surface to be most effective. I'm not sure the flow will be strong enough in this case, as this is quite a bit different from the other marginal events back on December 12th, where the French Broad picked up a good 2-4" of snow thanks to strong adiabatic flow that helped the region wetbulb down to freezing. We are at 44.8 degrees now with a dewpoint of 39.6 degrees so we have a long way to go!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

one of the most amazing things about this system in the morning is how quickly its over. Its overwith in about a 3 or 4 hour window, at any one location, so its not going to linger thats for sure. As Phil mentioned, the convection may enhance rates if it survives the trip, the moisture is blossoming quickly now, ahead of schedule, but we'll have to monitor the progress of it tonight. Any convection, like what happened here last night, with the proper temps and the snow would come down extremely hard .

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

35.7 with a dewpoint of just 35. Temps dropping VERY slowly. Need to get it on down there or I might end up with a cold rain at best.:(

The cold will get dragged down with good rates, assuming theres good rates. This could be a case of snow and 33 or 34 in many spots where theres a threat. Looks like the cold aloft is situated right about over you, and is slowly seeping south a little. If the convection can survive east of the Apps, the snow would fall pretty heavy I think in those areas.

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