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SUN 12z NAM showing Rn/Sn mix as far south as Charlotte for 3/28

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kclt.dat

and accumulating snowfall at KHKY:

http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_khky.dat

sounding for CLT:

Date: 24 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 28 MAR 11
Station: KCLT
Latitude:   35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   159                                                                 
SFC  995   203   1.3   0.6  95  0.8   1.0 352   5 274.9 275.6 274.5 285.8  4.01
 2  950   570   0.1  -0.1  99  0.2  -0.0  39   8 277.3 277.9 275.7 288.2  3.98
 3  900  1002  -0.8  -0.9  99  0.1  -0.8  74   7 280.7 281.4 277.6 291.8  3.99
 4  850  1460  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.0  -0.1 214   3 286.1 286.9 280.8 298.8  4.47
 5  800  1946   0.5   0.4 100  0.1   0.5 258  18 291.7 292.6 283.8 306.0  4.94
 6  750  2464  -0.6  -0.6 100  0.0  -0.6 253  30 295.9 296.8 285.4 310.3  4.88
 7  700  3014  -2.0  -2.2  99  0.1  -2.1 248  45 300.2 301.1 286.8 314.2  4.66
 8  650  3602  -4.3  -4.5  98  0.3  -4.4 246  58 304.1 304.9 287.8 317.0  4.20
 9  600  4229  -7.0  -7.4  97  0.4  -7.1 246  69 308.1 308.7 288.6 319.5  3.66
10  550  4903 -11.0 -11.2  99  0.2 -11.1 250  74 311.0 311.6 288.9 320.5  2.96
11  500  5629 -15.7 -17.7  85  2.0 -16.3 255  75 313.9 314.3 288.8 320.2  1.91
12  450  6414 -21.7 -26.7  64  5.0 -22.8 262  79 315.9 316.1 288.5 319.2  0.96
13  400  7269 -28.4 -36.3  47  7.9 -29.5 264  87 318.1 318.2 288.6 319.6  0.43
14  350  8211 -35.5 -48.4  26 12.9 -36.4 265  93 320.9 320.9 289.2 321.4  0.14
15  300  9263 -43.9 -55.6  26 11.7 -44.4 265  99 323.5 323.5 289.9 323.7  0.07
16  250 10463 -52.4 -61.1  34  8.8 -52.6 260  98 328.2 328.2 291.3 328.4  0.04
17  200 11889 -55.0 -66.5  23 11.5 -55.2 260 111 345.7 345.7 295.7 345.8  0.02
18  150 13724 -56.2 -70.6  15 14.4 -56.5 262  87 373.2 373.2 301.1 373.3  0.02
19  100 16272 -61.3 -77.0  11 15.7 -61.5 258  64 409.3 409.3 306.5 409.4  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0

Sounding for HKY:

Date: 24 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 28 MAR 11
Station: KHKY
Latitude:   35.73
Longitude: -81.38
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   163                                                                 
SFC  977   353   0.9   0.6  98  0.3   0.8 339   3 275.9 276.6 275.1 287.0  4.09
 2  950   574   0.6   0.6  99  0.1   0.6  19   5 277.8 278.5 276.3 289.3  4.19
 3  900  1007  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9  47   5 280.6 281.3 277.5 291.7  3.98
 4  850  1463  -1.3  -1.3 100  0.0  -1.3 334   4 284.8 285.5 279.7 296.4  4.08
 5  800  1946  -1.3  -1.4 100  0.1  -1.3 290  14 289.7 290.5 282.3 302.2  4.32
 6  750  2460  -2.5  -2.6 100  0.1  -2.5 270  23 293.9 294.6 283.9 306.3  4.22
 7  700  3007  -3.9  -4.0  99  0.1  -3.9 255  36 298.2 299.0 285.5 310.4  4.07
 8  650  3590  -5.6  -5.7  99  0.2  -5.7 250  51 302.7 303.4 286.9 314.4  3.83
 9  600  4215  -8.0  -8.2  98  0.2  -8.1 251  65 306.9 307.5 287.9 317.6  3.43
10  550  4887 -11.8 -12.1  97  0.3 -11.9 251  73 310.1 310.6 288.4 318.9  2.75
11  500  5611 -16.4 -18.1  87  1.7 -16.9 252  76 313.1 313.4 288.5 319.1  1.85
12  450  6394 -22.3 -27.1  65  4.8 -23.3 256  80 315.2 315.4 288.2 318.4  0.92
13  400  7246 -29.0 -35.9  52  6.9 -29.9 258  87 317.3 317.4 288.3 318.9  0.45
14  350  8187 -36.1 -47.5  30 11.4 -36.9 261  94 320.0 320.1 288.9 320.6  0.15
15  300  9237 -44.4 -55.6  28 11.2 -44.9 263 102 322.8 322.8 289.7 323.0  0.07
16  250 10436 -52.3 -61.3  33  8.9 -52.5 260 101 328.3 328.3 291.3 328.4  0.04
17  200 11860 -55.3 -66.4  24 11.1 -55.5 260 108 345.1 345.1 295.6 345.2  0.03
18  150 13698 -55.4 -70.8  13 15.4 -55.7 262  85 374.6 374.6 301.4 374.7  0.02
19  100 16254 -60.6 -77.3   9 16.6 -60.9 258  61 410.6 410.6 306.6 410.6  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

:snowman:

At this time of year, it would be hard for me to believe it but certainly not impossible to get snow, let alone accumulation, since it has done so in April before and therefore I say we have potential to get that much if it all comes together. :whistle: Very interesting of the data you've provided. We'll see what the outcome is but just wow.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The WRF simulated is a sight for NC...has solid heavy snow from the mountains at 12z around AVL to near Forest City Hickory Lincolnton just above Charlotte, and all points north into NC. That spreads across the state in the day, its very similar to the NAM. So far, I think the models are a little too cold by a fraction this far south, but for the mountains and nw Piedmont I'd say theres a definite shot at snow falling atleast. Check out the water vapor and how much pushing the upper features are doing.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110327&endTime=-1&duration=8

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

GSP just included that wintry chance for my area:

Monday: Rain, snow, and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain. High near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I just read GSP's AFD and they are interested in this. RAH hasn't updated since 10:40 so Im going to be interested in what they think. They are probably going to down play any possibility, and then be right...like normal.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Wow... I've been watching the potential, but never really thought we had a shot. However, with the increasing amounts projected for precipitation, it will likely create an isothermal layer down to 2000ft, very similar to the the early march storm... although this time, we have colder soundings. If this event mainly occurs at night like its projected, it should be able to aid higher snowfall totals. I'll post a more full update later today!

Folks in the piedmont are in this one too because of the hybrid damming setup. This might be one of those rare cases where some of the far NW mountains of NC will remain rain, while the dammed regions further east get in on the heavy wet snow.

nqzscx.gif

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Soundings wise... the GFS and NAM are night and day.

GFS is easily all rain, and not even close

2z89hfn.png

The NAM meanwhile is isothermal with heavy snow occurring at 9z

2ikrvcz.png

From the looks of it, it is likely going to depend on precipitation rates since we will need diabatic cooling with melting of precipitation aloft to bring down the snow levels to the valley floor. It should become obvious if the NAM projected precipitation output will exist as convection blossoms over Arkansas and Tennessee in the next 3-6 hours. The resolution of the GFS is likely not enough to resolve the freezing line dropping southward across the French Broad River as heavy precipitation moves in over the cold dome in place over most of NC. Thus, I give a slight advantage to the NAM, although I'm very skeptical about precipitation amounts at this time.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

From Raleigh NWS...

HAVE DECIDED TO FORECAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT *IF* PRECIPITATION RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP FALLING ENTIRELY AS SNOW.

HOWEVER...EVEN IN WINTER...PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PTYPE OF ALL SNOW IS CONTINGENT ON SEVERAL FACTORS (I.E. EVAP COOLING OR MELTING AND PRECIP RATES)...THEN A PTYPE FORECAST OF ALL LIQUID OR A MIX AT BEST WITH NO ACCUMULATION IS TYPICALLY THE BETTER FORECAST. -VINCENT

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triadwx

triadwx

Posted
Posted

From Raleigh NWS...

HAVE DECIDED TO FORECAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT *IF* PRECIPITATION RATES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP FALLING ENTIRELY AS SNOW.

HOWEVER...EVEN IN WINTER...PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PTYPE OF ALL SNOW IS CONTINGENT ON SEVERAL FACTORS (I.E. EVAP COOLING OR MELTING AND PRECIP RATES)...THEN A PTYPE FORECAST OF ALL LIQUID OR A MIX AT BEST WITH NO ACCUMULATION IS TYPICALLY THE BETTER FORECAST. -VINCENT

I called the pessimism. :rolleyes:

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

The fact that we are so close to the event, means its already nearly nowcasting time... just looking upstream, you can already see significant amounts of convection firing in Arkansas where no model had any precipitation occurring by this time.

The nam has little reflection of convection at 21z

30c8xgy.png

Unfortunately even the RUC is handling the firing convection very poorly currently.

w897wj.png

Current Radar:

28vc1o7.gif

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

WRAL is on board.. via Facebook

No April Fools Joke: April 1st is days away but you may think this is an early joke...it is not. We have some light snow in the forecast tomorrow morning as a weak upper level disturbance crosses North Carolina. Tonight we may briefly clear allowing temperatures to bottom out near freezing. Tomorrow mnorning this next system arrives during the morning commute. We are looking at either some light snow or a rain/snow mix from the Triangle northward. Here is a look at potential snowfall accumulations. This is likely only on grassy and elevated surfaces as the roads will be too warm for any significant accumulation. Could Greg go in the fountain?!?!?!

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

WRAL is going full speed ahead with their forecast. Oh my!

Too ballsy IMO, they're going to be humiliated, even if they change it last minute tonight. Never have I seen such a forecast this far into March. Raleigh NWS (Vincent) is right, a rain to mix situation is much more likely for our area, now out W and NW of Raleigh that's another story, maybe. :thumbsup:

This snuck up on me as probably a few of you too, so lets get this thread going! Model time :scooter:

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