WxUSAF Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z NAM advertising wet snow late Wednesday with some marginal temps. Clown maps go nutso around CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z NAM advertising wet snow late Wednesday with some marginal temps. Clown maps go nutso around CHO. They sure do. Central to northern VA made out swell on that run with the tomorrow into thursday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even if you don't trust it, you gotta love the NAM. It's fighting hard for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even if you don't trust it, you gotta love the NAM. It's fighting hard for us. Agreed. NAM Snowfall map gives me 3 inches by 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM is definitely cold enough for all snow at IAD. Surface temps don't go above 33 and 850 temps are safely below zero. havent seen the other layers yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z NAM advertising wet snow late Wednesday with some marginal temps. Clown maps go nutso around CHO. Over the last two winters, the NAM clown maps have given CHO 1,000 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even if you don't trust it, you gotta love the NAM. It's fighting hard for us. this place is so weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Over the last two winters, the NAM clown maps have given CHO 1,000 inches of snow. Sounds like the right order of magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM is not going to have the Noreaster apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I know 850's are okay for central md...but based on the 12z nam what are the chances the balt/annapolis/dc area see's snow tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 As far as I see, the NAM soundings during the heaviest precip look like snow. I know 850's are okay for central md...but based on the 12z nam what are the chances the balt/annapolis/dc area see's snow tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how can the NAM and GFS look so different for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I don't recall seeing the NAM look so identical to the SREF run immediately preceding it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how can the NAM and GFS look so different for storm 2 My strictly weenie guess is because it is keying on storm 1 which leaves storm 2 short of energy. But I don't know what I am talking about, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Tomorrow's storm might be worth making a snowfall map for... I could see 1-2" for northernmost MD into SoPA. Watching the UL vort. and thicknesses because for most of MD/NoVA it looks like a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how can the NAM and GFS look so different for storm 2 wait for the 12Z run of the GFS, it may convert actually, I sort of like the look of the 12Z NAM with the broad 5H trough and energy coming down the back side (thru 72) looks prime for a potential cut off somewhere off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 wait for the 12Z run of the GFS, it may convert actually, I sort of like the look of the 12Z NAM with the broad 5H trough and energy coming down the back side (thru 72) looks prime for a potential cut off somewhere off the coast This. Not sure what the mythical hour 90 panel would hold, but hour 84 is advertising a piece of energy making the jump. If I were to project (Ian's favorite game), I would be guessing "congrats somewhere north of our area" for development and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how can the NAM and GFS look so different for storm 2 So I know for the future... Storm 1 = Wednesday into Thursday Storm 2 = Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 If that question is based on the NAM, katie, storm 2 would be Saturday, to the extent it is a storm for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the nam could be right on storm 2 but it seems like an outlier at the moment. it's probably now wrong with storm 1 and storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 this place is so weird.. Yeah, so what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 If that question is based on the NAM, katie, storm 2 would be Saturday, to the extent it is a storm for our area. Storm 2 would be Friday into Saturday you mean? I guess I'm confused on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Storm 2 would be Friday into Saturday you mean? I guess I'm confused on timing So are the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Storm 2 would be Friday into Saturday you mean? I guess I'm confused on timing "late week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So are the models Exactly! GFS is clearly showing a Wednesday/Thursday and then late Thursday/Friday/Saturday NAM only has the first, second misses wide right I think hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Exactly! GFS is clearly showing a Wednesday/Thursday and then late Thursday/Friday/Saturday NAM only has the first, second misses wide right I think hahaha for both storms..im going for a total accumulation of 2-15 inches for Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 did anyone see the 00z cras last night ian? http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/fp0_084.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Storm 2 would be Friday into Saturday you mean? I guess I'm confused on timing To echo others, so is the NAM. If it is a NAM based question, Saturday (not so much Friday) into Sunday. But I am guessing that if the NAM is right, it really is not much of anything with the weekend event. I am guessing the NAM is not right. I expect light nothing mid-week and rain on the weekend while snow happens north of us. That is based on my soon-to-be-patented ZEN model. Which is basically green blotches thrown at a map in my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 did anyone see the 00z cras last night ian? http://cimss.ssec.wi...00/fp0_084.html even the cras thinks the nam sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think it's going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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