psuhoffman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 True, true, and true. What's your gut telling you about this week, hoff? MDstorm This first system is going to be washing out not amplifying and those have not been big producers lately but it will have more support then the last system. Probably not going to be a major storm but it could give some accumulating snow west of the cities and this late in the season that is significant I guess. The system for Friday I think is going to be a major amplification event. I am not sure if the amplification will focus on the second system like the GFS/GGEM or on the 3rd wave like the NAM but the end result will likely be a major phased event on the east coast. As for precip type, its gonna be hard to get snow this late in the season. NOt impossible but very difficult so of course I would lean wet versus white but its fun to be tracking something this late. I think my elevation might make things more interesting up here this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This first system is going to be washing out not amplifying and those have not been big producers lately but it will have more support then the last system. Probably not going to be a major storm but it could give some accumulating snow west of the cities and this late in the season that is significant I guess. The system for Friday I think is going to be a major amplification event. I am not sure if the amplification will focus on the second system like the GFS/GGEM or on the 3rd wave like the NAM but the end result will likely be a major phased event on the east coast. As for precip type, its gonna be hard to get snow this late in the season. NOt impossible but very difficult so of course I would lean wet versus white but its fun to be tracking something this late. I think my elevation might make things more interesting up here this weekend. Thanks for your input. Make it snow and this could be psuhoffman storm #2. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JI, your beloved EC has given up on the 3/30 storm for you... only 0.09" QPF at IAD thru 12Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nam dumps around .5'' for the first storm.. looks good but surface temps look like mid 30s so IDK about accumulation totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 6z NAM looks decent for the N and W burbs for Wed into Thurs. 850's look cold enough, just what about surface temps. US 15 west should do decent , and decent for March 30-31 6z NAM QPF thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyone know about the timing of the storm Friday? If it's snow it will give me an excuse to move my flight to dc up. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyone who posts the DGEX should be immediately five-posted. For shame people, posting about a model on the weather forums. PhineasC, thought you would be interested in what the 06Z DGEX was showing. The 3rd wave shown on the NAM is suppressed when it gets extended to the DGEX. Looks like surface temps would be an issue except for maybe the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 06Z GFS is wetter with the first event with over .5 for central MD over to the eastern shore. Surface temps would be border line though with mid to upper 30's showing. Looks like the precip might be heavy enough to over come that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Shame this is an off run of the GFS but the 06Z is showing a heavy wet snow storm for central and western areas of the region for the second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Shame this is an off run of the GFS but the 06Z is showing a heavy wet snow storm for central and western areas of the region for the second event. And this is despite SFC temps in the mid 30s from the GFS through most of MD including DC and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 And this is despite SFC temps in the mid 30s from the GFS through most of MD including DC and BWI. Did you see the clown map of total snow fall? Looked nice but I think I would argue to cut the totals by a 1/3 to a half with the extent of the snow being to far east on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Did you see the clown map of total snow fall? Looked nice but I think I would argue to cut the totals by a 1/3 to a half with the extent of the snow being to far east on it. I don't ever look at the clown maps unless someone posts one on here. The GFS snowfall map the my company produces has DC and BWI getting fringed on the 2-4" as 4-8" falls over MoCo and a small area of 8-12" tries to work into NoMD/SoPA. WV panhandle with 8-12"+ as well. NYC 8-12", SNE 12"+ I lol'd, but I'm still watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yup just remember guys what the snow maps where showing ric with this past weekends storm. Well guess what we got a dusting at best... Remember its going to be april i see nobody getting any snow south of bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 And this is despite SFC temps in the mid 30s from the GFS through most of MD including DC and BWI. I've seen plenty of wet snow storm with temps of 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yup just remember guys what the snow maps where showing ric with this past weekends storm. Well guess what we got a dusting at best... Remember its going to be april i see nobody getting any snow south of bwi Only this is a completely different system so you can't really compare the two snowfall forecasts. I've seen plenty of wet snow storm with temps of 35 Not saying that it can't, but it would make it rather difficult to squeeze out 6"+ especially when the mid 30s would only be the low for the day (with highs in the 50s?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even with the timing off by about 6 hours, and the precip amounts not quite as great, it's interesting to see the NAM returning to its solution of Sunday morning wrt tomorrow morning. Also, with the huge differences between the NAM and the GFS for the 72 hour or so time frame, any thoughts on which is more likely correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Also, with the huge differences between the NAM and the GFS for the 72 hour or so time frame, any thoughts on which is more likely correct? Euro's much closer to the GFS, so I'd put more money on a GFS-like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JB says heaviest snow could be close to DC Wed-Sat period will see snow into the big cities with the threat of heaviest amounts very close by from DC to Boston ( though I think northwest) And like some of the other storms this winter… its a 2 system event! I guess its a fitting way to end the coldest last week of March since at least 2001 ( I will look to see when all the stats are in if its even further back) http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Only this is a completely different system so you can't really compare the two snowfall forecasts. Not saying that it can't, but it would make it rather difficult to squeeze out 6"+ especially when the mid 30s would only be the low for the day (with highs in the 50s?). will see who is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JB says heaviest snow could be close to DC Wed-Sat period will see snow into the big cities with the threat of heaviest amounts very close by from DC to Boston ( though I think northwest) And like some of the other storms this winter… its a 2 system event! I guess its a fitting way to end the coldest last week of March since at least 2001 ( I will look to see when all the stats are in if its even further back) http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even with the timing off by about 6 hours, and the precip amounts not quite as great, it's interesting to see the NAM returning to its solution of Sunday morning wrt tomorrow morning. Also, with the huge differences between the NAM and the GFS for the 72 hour or so time frame, any thoughts on which is more likely correct? I am going with the NAM... it has been pretty much right all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like I'm going to visit the sister in HGR this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I am going with the NAM... it has been pretty much right all year. No reason not to side with the globals on the second event at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like I'm going to visit the sister in HGR this weekend. have her pray for snow down this way too, will ya'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I am going with the NAM... it has been pretty much right all year. correct, everything decent has been to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM? It did a horrible job this past weekend down here in RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 is it me, or are the SREFs pretty wet for tomorrow night at or above .5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 is it me, or are the SREFs pretty wet for tomorrow night at or above .5"? You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 have her pray for snow down this way too, will ya'? And the amount of snow we'll get? Nun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You are correct. if it was a month earlier, those 850's would do the trick now, probably not funny how this "winter" just keeps finding new ways to tease and then screw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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