psuhoffman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 way too much going on, added to the season change, and the models are likely to have a hard time getting anything right this week. I would not feel confident in any solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Sorry, what do these numbers mean? I’m guessing: Day, Time, Date, Sfc Temp, 850mb Temp, 700mb RH, 850mb RH, QPF, 1000-500 Thickness, 500mb Height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenny G Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html member n003 shows the storm dropping 8 inches of snow in downtown Washington... wow. And 18 inches in the mountains. That would be some storm for April 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 You know a storm is dead when NinjaWarrior2 starts posting NOGAPS and individual ensemble members... give it up. EDIT: Not to say "give up on the storms, even though they shouldn't amount to much," but rather "unless you have something real to contribute stop posting fantasy maps." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 way too much going on, added to the season change, and the models are likely to have a hard time getting anything right this week. I would not feel confident in any solution right now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 You know a storm is dead when NinjaWarrior2 starts posting NOGAPS and individual ensemble members... give it up. EDIT: Not to say "give up on the storms, even though they shouldn't amount to much," but rather "unless you have something real to contribute stop posting fantasy maps." why dont people gravitate toward the worst looking member for snow? that's most likely to come true 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On top of that, hasn't 003 been a notorious snow slut member this season? If all the snow 003 has tried to give the area had fallen as shown on that rogue member, we are easily over 100 inches of snowfall on the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 why dont people gravitate toward the worst looking member for snow? that's most likely to come true 95% of the time. I don't think anyone is "gravitating" toward the snowier models, more that they're fun to post and fantasize what could be in all unlikelyhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 NAM still looks suppressed. Sigh. Throws a little something back at 54 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Sharp cutoff, but better than 12z Looks like how our last "event" looked a few days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 NAM still looks suppressed. Sigh. Throws a little something back at 54 tho its much wetter than the 12z. is it trending towards the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 look at 12z NAM at 54 and 18z NAM at 48. 18z is much jucier for the storm as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nam says what 2nd storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nam says what 2nd storm? and if that's that case...what do surface temps look like for the first event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nam says what 2nd storm? Gonna have to disagree. H5 maps looks like its about to go crazy post 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 and if that's that case...what do surface temps look like for the first event? basically, the NAM and other models are starting to follow lockstep with the EURO. I believe the mid week event is our best chance for late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Gonna have to disagree. H5 maps looks like its about to go crazy post 84 hours Look at 12z NAM at 78 and 84 and 18z NAM and 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Gonna have to disagree. H5 maps looks like its about to go crazy post 84 hours h5 looks decent but it already has a surface "reflection" off/near the se coast at 84. the trough would send it ots imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 basically, the NAM and other models are starting to follow lockstep with the EURO. I believe the mid week event is our best chance for late season snow. euro and new nam are pretty close to e/o outside the northern edge. wuold probably have to favor the euro for a little longer but if that edge holds tight on the nam it's going to be trouble for whoever is near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I’m guessing: Day, Time, Date, Sfc Temp, 850mb Temp, 700mb RH, 850mb RH, QPF, 1000-500 Thickness, 500mb Height Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I don't think anyone is "gravitating" toward the snowier models, more that they're fun to post and fantasize what could be in all unlikelyhood. Because that's helpful for a weather discussion - lets post all the fantasy maps for weenies to hug and be annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Because that's helpful for a weather discussion - lets post all the fantasy maps for weenies to hug and be annoying. One doesn't have to post fantasy maps to be annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS ensemble members that show a coastal look pretty good with about 40% of them giving DC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 in 2 days when it's cold rain and people ask why we wasted time on it just remember this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Because that's helpful for a weather discussion - lets post all the fantasy maps for weenies to hug and be annoying. Outlying possibilities on both ends aren't part of a discussion? You're only a weenie if you lend support to it and hug it, as you said. No one was doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z NAM looks a tad slower...not really seeing your surface reflection, there was a slight reflection with a piece of energy ahead of the main impulse, if anything I would say the 18z NAM looks like it would go negative too soon with the main impulse. h5 looks decent but it already has a surface "reflection" off/near the se coast at 84. the trough would send it ots imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 - lets post all the fantasy maps for weenies to hug and be annoying. Don't pretend that this place would exist without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 in 2 days when it's cold rain and people ask why we wasted time on it just remember this post You were right about the non-event yesterday, maybe some snow if it fringes but probably a very cold rain or dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 For DC, that is an extremely heavy, cold, wet..... rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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