Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Normally, you tend to overdue "climo", but this late in the season it's probably appropriate...but I do like this threat even down here. especially in the heads of people who want more snow. i mean bethesdawx was *almost* right that this last storm would produce the same as a january storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 As of now if the nam/GFS came true, I would say IAD N &W would get mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 especially in the heads of people who want more snow. i mean bethesdawx was *almost* right that this last storm would produce the same as a january storm. Eh, I want more snow, but I'm not stupid like bethesdawx and completely unrealistic. I thought we would barely see a dusting and didn't even stay up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Don't know if it means anything, but the new SREFS just took the biggest jump (not good) I think I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 To piss in everyone's cheerios...9z SREFs are almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Don't know if it means anything, but the new SREFS just took the biggest jump (not good) I think I have ever seen. Thanks for the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Eh, I want more snow, but I'm not stupid like bethesdawx and completely unrealistic. I thought we would barely see a dusting and didn't even stay up for it. climo is probably one of the most important overall things to understand around here. i dont use it to forecast a storm really. still, if you get an anomalous event it bears watching. for now the upper levels are a bit lacking here which would make me assume we'll still get the short end of the stick but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone know what the NOGAPS, CRAS, and FIM are saying about this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 How'd the SREFS do with the past storms? Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone know what the NOGAPS, CRAS, and FIM are saying about this storm? I'm more interested in the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone know what the NOGAPS, CRAS, and FIM are saying about this storm? The NOAGPS misses everyone north of the VA/NC border way OTS. Would give VA and parts of MD some very light QPF around hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 To piss in everyone's cheerios...9z SREFs are almost all rain. Why is that? 850's appear to be below 0 unless some other layer is warm. Over .25" of QPF also falls across the area and looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm more interested in the JMA. And the KMA and BOM too, I bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Why is that? 850's appear to be below 0 unless some other layer is warm. Over .25" of QPF also falls across the area and looks to be all snow. surface temps are very warm, especially over the MA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 And the KMA and BOM too, I bet! Now you're just blurting out random acronyms I honestly don't know how people even FIND some of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone know what the NOGAPS, CRAS, and FIM are saying about this storm? 00z NOGAPS is suppressed. Light snow. 00z CRAS is wound-up. Rain. 00z FIM is borderline, but I just don't see snow in late March with a 850 track over top. Not impressive QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 surface temps are very warm, especially over the MA region. I just don't know if there wouldn't be any dynamic cooling involved....I also never used the SREF for surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 How'd the SREFS do with the past storms? Ok For BWI...pretty decently with this last "event". Was keeping the precip south of BWI unlike the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Is this a thread for discussion about the event on Wednesday, or a tryout for d*ckhead of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 And the 12z NAM is a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 or a tryout for d*ckhead of the year? All threads are this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Surface temperatures at the onset of the precipitation on the 09z SREF. Looks like a setup for wet, non-accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Is this a thread for discussion about the event on Wednesday, or a tryout for d*ckhead of the year? Probably 60% dckhead, 40% threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 And the 12z NAM is a whiff. Which is exactly what the SREFS hinted that it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 And the 12z NAM is a whiff. Pattern is on repeat mode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Probably 60% dckhead, 40% threat I like your proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Probably 60% dckhead, 40% threat For me, it was more 50/50 Because bringing up the track record of a model is surely ******** behavior. I'm sending you 5 more poems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Which is exactly what the SREFS hinted that it would be. At least the SREFS showed some QPF getting into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Pattern is on repeat mode! Cutbacks at NCEP. Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I like your proportions. most men do For me, it was more 50/50 Because bringing up the track record of a model is surely ******** behavior. The percentages change depending on how "real" the threat is, or who is posting a bunch of crap because they are morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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