BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 gfs supports general bust down here Supports major bust up north on snow, places like NE PA, Albany etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Numerous Winter Storm Warning cancellations for up north if you beleive the NAM and GFS "De-hoisting" Winter Storm Warnings is painful. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 i feel like we went through this once or twice during the winter and the lesser solution ended up happening. the euro and nam look pretty similar. i'd lean underperformer around here. Looking at the 12z gfs, good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looking at the 12z gfs, good call Heh, doesn't even drop .25". Score one for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Supports major bust up north on snow, places like NE PA, Albany etc no worries.. sne is also throwing out the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 no worries.. sne is also throwing out the gfs Its is pretty entertaining to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Its is pretty entertaining to read. if ct blizz lived in our region he'd be mercilessly ripped to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 no worries.. sne is also throwing out the gfs Im ready for beach weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And then this happened: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And then this happened: Thanks for the token flakes in the green zone. I have something to look forward to, now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks for the token flakes in the green zone. I have something to look forward to, now. MDstorm I had to add it so folks could get an idea of where SOME accumulation is possible/expected on the tail-end of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I had to add it so folks could get an idea of where SOME accumulation is possible/expected on the tail-end of this thing. the whole "storm" has been a tail-end for us, and probably further north save a few lucky areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 the whole "storm" has been a tail-end for us, and probably further north save a few lucky areas True... I was i the mindset of my map's area, but for what's relevant to this subforum it will indeed all be tail-end, with maybe the exception of the highest elevations in the WV/MD Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 what a waste of a week. I didnt see one flake from either storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And then this happened: I'll say this much.....I've been impressed with your snowfall maps this winter. Even the late Feb storm, when I was convinced that you were wrong for my area, you nailed it. Be interesting to see how this one works out, but good job with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll say this much.....I've been impressed with your snowfall maps this winter. Even the late Feb storm, when I was convinced that you were wrong for my area, you nailed it. Be interesting to see how this one works out, but good job with these. i noticed there was no verification on the weekend event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 euro is a little slower and colder aloft.. 0c never makes it as far west as dca/bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 pretty dry tho.. .25 over most of area but some holes of drier looks like sne might have to throw the euro out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 sne meltdown cometh dt's final call is super lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 sne meltdown cometh dt's final call is super lol The whole SNE forum is on suicide watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll say this much.....I've been impressed with your snowfall maps this winter. Even the late Feb storm, when I was convinced that you were wrong for my area, you nailed it. Be interesting to see how this one works out, but good job with these. Just trying my best... some hits, some misses. i noticed there was no verification on the weekend event... Been too busy! I have the snow total maps, though, so it'll be up soon enough (just on the blog) along with yesterday's stuff up north and for today/tomorrow's event as well. And then it's on to severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 if ct blizz lived in our region he'd be mercilessly ripped to shreds You are such a trouble maker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 sne meltdown cometh dt's final call is super lol His re-submitted final call is pretty good, IMO (as far as totals). I'm not sure why he didn't think the southern Apps. were worth contouring... The wording gets me a bit... even in April 3-6" isn't that big of a deal for the Catskills, some of the Berkshires and Hudson Valley (not that significant, anyway). The models finally caught up to the fact that the convection to the south was going to prevent the flow of moisture into the Mid-Atlantic states, and that the coastal would develop later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm not sure how Ryan deals with Ct Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Epic model fail, they cant even get a storm right within 24 hours anymore...I really dont care much about Mets who work at NCEP, models have been terrible this year, bottom line. I know this winter has been based on difficult patterns and phasing storms and all but jeez we should have a little better consistency than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 sne meltdown cometh dt's final call is super lol They threw out the GFS, NAM and EURO so now they are hugging the NOGAPS and RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ? it was always going to be rainstorm, and it's going to be a rainstorm. just because your wishcast didn't come true doesn't mean the models are wrong. You weren't saying that last night when you were posting about the snow falling in Martinsburg. If the original precip projections for yesterdays event had verified, we'd have had a couple of inches of snow last night. But whether it's rain or snow, these things have been dancing around like crazy with regard to where the precip is, how much it is, what type it is. He's right. There's zero consistency in these things right now, and they really haven't been too good this winter. It's been one swing after another, first one solution, next run, different, many times completely. If a model predicts 2,3,4 inches of snow in an area, or .25, .5, or .75 inches of rainfall, and it doesn't happen, then it was wrong. If it predicts high temps in the teens, and they verify in the 30's, then it was wrong. If you believe the model solution, say, wrt snow, now that may be wishful thinking, but the model doesn't get a pass when what it predicts doesn't happen. Should we be very skeptical of model solutions that show snow? After this winter, I'd say heck yes. But, again, if a model predicts it, be it rain, snow, or sunshine, and it doesn't happen, then it was wrong. About 24 hours is the limit lately with these things. Sometimes, even that has been too much lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ? it was always going to be rainstorm, and it's going to be a rainstorm. just because your wishcast didn't come true doesn't mean the models are wrong. you're good at manipulating arguments when did he say anything about snow? Its more of model flips in general, problems involving QPF/temp/phasing/etc, not wishcasting. Its been a winter of Model Crapola, was the point, not singling out one storm in april 1st. Take it easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 They threw out the GFS, NAM and EURO so now they are hugging the NOGAPS and RUC. models sucked everyone in one last time for a good screwing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ^^^^^^^^^^^^ you're good at manipulating arguments Its more of model flips in general, problems involving QPF/temp/phasing/etc, not wishcasting. Its been a winter of Model Crapola, was the point, not singling out one storm in april 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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