WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I try to be respectful of the opinions of others, and try to never lash out at someone just because they think something different. Add that to the fact that most here know a heck of lot more than I do about weather forecasting and it means basically that I might post an observation about a model, etc. but that's about it. But this time, I have to say something. Yes, most of us really love snow. Yes, most of us felt disappointed in the winter. That's probably the two biggest reasons we've paid attention to the models the past 10 days or so. We'd like to see snow, but it isn't the same as watching, waiting, hoping, whatever, during the middle of the winter. We realize that even if it did snow, it probably couldn't survive the daylight hours. So, really, this has just been an exercise in harmless fun. But some seem determined to undermine any fun that might be had. So, what I wanted to say is.....to those patting yourselves on the back for "forecasting" that it wouldn't snow on March 30 ... congrats, you nailed it. Forecasting that it won't snow on March 30 takes neither guts nor expertise. Sorry. The deck was already stacked in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 there's no way this thread would have more than 40 replies if everyone realized it was a rainstorm immediately ... so i think the answer is yes. Thanks for recognizing the benefits of hype, JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z GFS has some juice and some cold for those out west. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 how many of those snowfalls in the first 10 days of April were big of recent? i should look I suppose. in d.c. there have been no 1"+ daily snowfalls in April since 1924. I do not have daily data for Baltimore, but you are right most of the April snowfall records are from Pre 1924. Actually I do have monthly data and I found this.... From 1883 to 1944 Baltimore recorded more than 1" of snowfall in April 10 out of 61 years. From 1945 to 2010 Baltimore has not recorded more then 1" of snowfall in 65 years. So there is no denying there has been a shift away from late season snowfall here. This pattern is evident in March also, just about all the snowfall records for the second half of March are pre 1950. HOWEVER, since there are poeple on this board that do not live in the cities themselves, there have been 8 measurable snowfalls in April since 1944 that were under 1" but several of those were fairly significant in the NW suburbs. Most recently in April 2003 there was a storm that dropped 2-4" ammounts N and NW of Baltimore. So for Mitchnicks location specifically it might take a "miracle" at this point, but for some other places in this region maybe not. The other problem is while I would weight more recent data more heavily, there are long term patterns that change over time and its never apparent when that change will happen until after it takes place. The fact that it has snowed in Baltimore many times, even if it was almost 100 years ago, means it is possible and can not be dismissed without reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I try to be respectful of the opinions of others, and try to never lash out at someone just because they think something different. Add that to the fact that most here know a heck of lot more than I do about weather forecasting and it means basically that I might post an observation about a model, etc. but that's about it. But this time, I have to say something. Yes, most of us really love snow. Yes, most of us felt disappointed in the winter. That's probably the two biggest reasons we've paid attention to the models the past 10 days or so. We'd like to see snow, but it isn't the same as watching, waiting, hoping, whatever, during the middle of the winter. We realize that even if it did snow, it probably couldn't survive the daylight hours. So, really, this has just been an exercise in harmless fun. But some seem determined to undermine any fun that might be had. So, what I wanted to say is.....to those patting yourselves on the back for "forecasting" that it wouldn't snow on March 30 ... congrats, you nailed it. Forecasting that it won't snow on March 30 takes neither guts nor expertise. Sorry. The deck was already stacked in your favor. Well it is March 30 here IMBY of the MA and it is snowing light fluffy snow flakes as I type this. Pretty strange to be snow flakes like this while the air temp is 39. So far and now casting based on current radar this event has been a big time bust. Ready for some nice 70's and the brown to green to get on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well it is March 30 here IMBY of the MA and it is snowing light fluffy snow flakes as I type this. Pretty strange to be snow flakes like this while the air temp is 39. So far and now casting based on current radar this event has been a big time bust. Ready for some nice 70's and the brown to green to get on with it. Yea, it looks to me like th energy is "splitting". The upper level dynamics are back over Ohio and heading into PA. The precip associated with the surface features and the WAA is going to stay to the south. This has actually been a common problem for this area when the upper level support goes to our NW. Models ALWAYS overdo precip in the DC area in these scenarios. This is why I have never thought much of the 1st wave. I never really thought we had much chance with the second either but I thought that might at least become a more dnamic event and those can be interesting even if they do not end up producing snow. I like dynamic storms, not just snowstorms. I still think something will end up bombing along the coast once the uper level energy catches up to the surface, but it will probably be too far northeast for our area to get anything significant, rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 sorry, but you clearly are the one that should reconsider, seriously reality is reality so don't get angry with me I'm all for a real threat, but this? not even a long shot there was never a legit chance except on computer models that have been incredibly flawed all season, fed by the hypemaster JB I'm happy w/whatever we get but want warmth at this point the fact that I understood that it wouldn't be snow and others didn't is your/their decision You wouldn't be posting here if deep down you didn't think there was a shot.. I think that goes for everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You wouldn't be posting here if deep down you didn't think there was a shot.. I think that goes for everyone.. There is a nice dynamic storm to track...we post on a wx forum... I could care less if I see snow or not, this year has a consistant stick up the ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You wouldn't be posting here if deep down you didn't think there was a shot.. I think that goes for everyone.. Not everyone is a pure snow weenie. Lots of heavy wet snow today. Good job NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Every one of your posts since December has been the same thing... going on about how its just not going to snow this year "just because its one of those years" with no scientific or logic based discourse about the meterology involved. Even when we got our one good snow this year all you did was moan about how in another year it would have been 20-30" instead of the 8-12" our area got. Other then JB no one on here has been saying this was going to be a snowstorm. However, if you are going to make the claim that a storm has no shot at all to produce any snowfall when there are numerous examples of measurable snowfall in Baltimore the first 10 days of April then you should back it up with some legitimate synoptic reason why. You have added absolutely no meterological value to the discussion on here since you decided in your infinite wisdom that it just wasnt going to snow this year because "it just wasn't". You are entitled to that feeling but I am sorry in my opinion saying it over and over and over again without adding anything of value to the discussion even when no one is arguing with you is annoying after a while. my original statement that we needed a miracle was spot on as for the season, it ended sufficiently below normal at BWI to justify my complaints and suspicions early on it would be a lousy winter for snow at BWI based on my following winter wx for the last 38 years of my adult life otherwise, I'll say I disagree with the balance your comments and leave it at that since petty arguments get no one anywhere though I have to admit I am trying to think of who doesn't moan on this board no matter what the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 how many of those snowfalls in the first 10 days of April were big of recent? i should look I suppose. in d.c. there have been no 1"+ daily snowfalls in April since 1924. Actually Ian, in southern St. Mary's County (Ridge, MD to be exact) at sea level and surrounded by water on three sides we had just a tad under 6 inches of snow (5.5) on April 8th or 9th, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You wouldn't be posting here if deep down you didn't think there was a shot.. I think that goes for everyone.. so you can't be a wx weenie and just post? or everyone that posts is only posting because of snow nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is preciip staying to south???? We don't even get a lousy raindrop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Actually Ian, in southern St. Mary's County (Ridge, MD to be exact) at sea level and surrounded by water on three sides we had just a tad under 6 inches of snow (5.5) on April 8th or 9th, 2007 april 7.. it snowed in DC too but not much (.4). that was a big time fluke either way so im not sure what it means overall. still, it didnt give DC 1". http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/20070407/snow_20070407.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 so you can't be a wx weenie and just post? or everyone that posts is only posting because of snow nah In a thread dedicated to a snow threat? Safe to assume yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is preciip staying to south???? We don't even get a lousy raindrop? no..euro just significantly increased the precip for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 no..euro just significantly increased the precip for wave 1 And its been money all year, right. It's amazing, and you have referenced this several times this year, how precip seems to "skip" right over northern Virginia. You can look at the radar loop for about the past hour and see this again. Now it may fill in later, but so far here, nadadrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RIght now it seems the moisture inflow is being cut off by the convection to our south. This may or may not change later this evening as some of the energy to our west swings through. I never expected much snow but the chances of at least some dynamic weather for our area seems to be decreasing. Seems wave one is a disorganized mess and wave 2 is going to bomb out to our northeast. I will let someone else complain about how we should have assumed that would happen all along because it is the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 april 7.. it snowed in DC too but not much (.4). that was a big time fluke either way so im not sure what it means overall. still, it didnt give DC 1". http://www.erh.noaa....ow_20070407.png getting snow this time of year is like hitting a hail mary pass... its a long shot in any situation but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 And its been money all year, right. It's amazing, and you have referenced this several times this year, how precip seems to "skip" right over northern Virginia. You can look at the radar loop for about the past hour and see this again. Now it may fill in later, but so far here, nadadrop. I didnt think precip was going to start till this evening anyway. I wasnt expecting any precip today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EURO also shows much more precip for storm 2. 850s are cold enough in JYO but surface warm(34-35) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EURO also shows much more precip for storm 2. 850s are cold enough in JYO but surface warm(34-35) I'm getting confused. What and when are we calling storm 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 euro has a stripe of .5"+ up 95 dc to balt thurs night.. good track if it was winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is it all rain on the euro for i95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is it all rain on the euro for i95? not if it was winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is it all rain on the euro for i95? looks that way on the maps.. dc/balt maybe into the mid-upper 30s with fairly light rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm getting confused. What and when are we calling storm 2? I think people consider the batch of moisture this evening with the lead shortwave storm 1. The moisture with the redevelopment Thursday night when the upper level trough swings through is storm 2. There was a "storm 3" for a while on some models for Saturday when they were hanging more energy on the backside of the trough. EIther way I am confused in general, its a way of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 can we fooking end this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 not if it was winter Zing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 can we fooking end this winter. Tonights 0z will be very telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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