mdsnowlover Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You guys are great... At this rate, some of you will be trying to track winter storms in July from 480 hours out. if that's all they have to do, the answer is probably yes!! Only problem is when joe d'aleo is on board for something its hard to ignore. And he is saying the chance for snow into interior of md, dc included. That's hared to ignore.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 there's no major cold source .. i dunno if 0c 850s will do it True, but you don't think the Euro looks a bit too "amped"? That thing cuts in pretty good. The Ridge in the West doesn't look very amped, it just seems like the look should me more of a Flat Rider off Hatteras rather than Cutting up the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 For the mid week event, the SREFS are noticeably wetter and a tad colder at the upper levels by Wed. morning. Surface is about the same as last run, but, again, much wetter. Don't know if that amounts to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Didnt Ian say +NAO on our doorstep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 18z NAM gets toasty, transfer is going to be too late if NAM hints at the inand low running up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This is a joke, right? I think I have more chance of becoming the next President of Libya than this happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Didnt Ian say +NAO on our doorstep? i said it looked that way.. it's maybe a bit more muddled now whether it goes positive or goes back negative. im just peddling the ensembles anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Is this post a joke? I sure hope so. Sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro is 32-33 at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 i said it looked that way.. it's maybe a bit more muddled now whether it goes positive or goes back negative. im just peddling the ensembles anyway. I am just gonna go with the positive. I remember April 82 in NYC seeing this snowstorm from the 58th floor coming over mid-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nam is still very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nam is still very interesting. very.....clown map crazy for Central and NE VA....Late March and early April should be the time we all catch up on some sleep before hurricane season south of Mason Dixon line........then it shows weekend storm loading up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just for the he!! of it, 06Z DGEX seems to like the idea of a nice storm. 850's are good but surface temps would be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 850mb temps below 0c, surface temps like 33-35f and Heavy QPF, I think that would be heavy wet snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ACTIVE WX PATTERN XPCD BGNG MID-WK. SFC HIPRES IN CNTRL CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH STAGNANT UPR RDG WILL MAINTAIN COOL AIR WEDGED AGAINST MTNS. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL CROSS S-CNTRL CONUS THRU THE WK. CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALL-SCALE DETAILS OF THE FIRST WAVE IS VERY LOW OWING TO DISCREPANCIES IN STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM-RNG MODELS. WHAT CAN BE AGREED UPON IS THAT PCPN IS XPCD TO SPREAD NEWD LATE TUE NGT AND ENCOMPASS THE FCST AREA WED. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL. UPR WAVE IS IN MUCH BETTER POSITION THAN SUN MRNG WAVE TO BRING MORE SGFNT PCPN AMTS TO FCST AREA. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY LIES IN INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR NEAR SFC. SFC LOPRES DVLPG IN COASTAL CAROLINAS OUGHT TO HELP MAINTAIN COOL WEDGE AT SFC DURG THIS EVENT. ATTM...THE PSBLTY HAS INCRD FOR A SGFNT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. WARM AIR NEAR THE SFC LKLY TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...SO IT SEEMS LKLY THAT PCPN WILL CHG TO SNOW IN MOST LOCALES EVENTUALLY DURG THE EVENT. ALL MODELS SHOW SNOW DURG THIS PD...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN AMT AND DURATION. SREF MEMBERS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING SNOW IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ON WED FOR MOST COUNTIES W OF BLUE RDG. HALF OF THE SREF MEMBERS ALSO SHOW PSBLTY OF SNOW IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ON WED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINTER HAS NOT QUITE RETIRED YET.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That sounds very bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wow... probabilistic forecasts have northern MD/extreme NVA/WVA panhandle in 80%+ for 1". Baltimore is 70% for 1" and DC is >60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone who posts the DGEX should be immediately five-posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That sounds very bullish. Agreed. I wasn't taking this threat very seriously, perhaps I need to start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 JB all amped up at weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 JB all amped up at weatherbell. so nothing's changed then, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Agreed. I wasn't taking this threat very seriously, perhaps I need to start paying attention. I don't know - is LWX being bullish really a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Agreed. I wasn't taking this threat very seriously, perhaps I need to start paying attention. Both NAM and GFS look decent, but the GFS at least is very warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Snap to it people..it aint over till its over. We have two potentials here....are they likely to pan out? lolololol, of course not. BUT we have a chance to all gather round the pot bellied stove one, two more times to track in futility. Let's go out with a bang Mid Atlantic'ers. Suit up and get ready for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wow... probabilistic forecasts have northern MD/extreme NVA/WVA panhandle in 80%+ for 1". Baltimore is 70% for 1" and DC is >60%. I think this has more going for it but how did their probabilities do around here this weekend? Maybe Yeoman remembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think this has more going for it but how did their probabilities do around here this weekend? Maybe Yeoman remembers. Learned a valuable lesson.. definitely going to Ji for my forecasts going forward. I hope Congress cuts NWS funding to $0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I don't know - is LWX being bullish really a good thing? No probably not - but HPC is bullish too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 most of the models have a good track and plenty of moisture. hard to dismiss totally other than the date. i would have to favor elevation north and west but even the cities seem in the game for a wet snow thump for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think this has more going for it but how did their probabilities do around here this weekend? Maybe Yeoman remembers. Didn't look at them. But the standard rule-of-thumb for the LWX experimental forecast worked brilliantly...take your "forecasted amount" on that page, divide by 10, and you're golden. I got somewhere between 0.01-0.03", depending if the flakes were standing on end or lying flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 most of the models have a good track and plenty of moisture. hard to dismiss totally other than the date. i would have to favor elevation north and west but even the cities seem in the game for a wet snow thump for now. Normally, you tend to overdue "climo", but this late in the season it's probably appropriate...but I do like this threat even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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