Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol There been some other forecasters and informed weenies talking about a major snowfall of getting into NYC and even into Philly but I really do not agree with that scenario/ forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 looks like we're in dt's all rain area for the second storm http://www.wxrisk.co...w-englnd-storm/ So that means we will get blizzard conditions, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Anyone who thinks we are getting more than a dusting from any of this garbage is crazy. We will get drizzle and love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So that means we will get blizzard conditions, right? well lc thinks it's going to snow here so that's a pretty strong counterweight. dt's reasoning seems pretty sound. i think he tried on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So that means we will get blizzard conditions, right? I have never seen a DT first guess verify--- that's why it's a guess. There are usually large adjustments made until he gets to the final bust, I mean call. So, in other words, get ready for some snow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 well lc thinks it's going to snow here so that's a pretty strong counterweight. dt's reasoning seems pretty sound. i think he tried on this one. not to rag on Dave, but I think one must be near total inebriation to forecast anything other than rain and maybe a few passing wet snow flakes for DCA/BWI this time of the year I also think the big storm won't work out up north; the models just plain suck this year, but that's just my gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I have never seen a DT first guess verify--- that's why it's a guess. There are usually large adjustments made until he gets to the final bust, I mean call. So, in other words, get ready for some snow. MDstorm What will likely happen is the storm will look crappier and crappier unless you are in far NNE. It doesn't snow 18 inches across a wide area in April very often. I wouldn't want to be anywhere south or east of western MA for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 not to rag on Dave, but I think one must be near total inebriation to forecast anything other than rain and maybe a few passing wet snow flakes for DCA/BWI this time of the year I also think the big storm won't work out up north; the models just plain suck this year, but that's just my gut Temps look mighty tenuous outside the high spots of CNE on the 18Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 not to rag on Dave, but I think one must be near total inebriation to forecast anything other than rain and maybe a few passing wet snow flakes for DCA/BWI this time of the year I also think the big storm won't work out up north; the models just plain suck this year, but that's just my gut i wouldnt be shocked if it didnt work out up there either. he talks about the kicker.. the flow remains active as it was most of the yr. but they still eked out a few of course. even up there you need to get into big time rates this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DTs map looks awful. He needs a topo map to superimpose, and the western most region D will likely get the most snow becuase of it's elevation. And NYC gould get hammerd if the H5 low closes off in the right spot during nightime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 i wouldnt be shocked if it didnt work out up there either. he talks about the kicker.. the flow remains active as it was most of the yr. but they still eked out a few of course. even up there you need to get into big time rates this time of year. The surface temp maps on the 18Z GFS are hilarious. They basically show a small lobe of below freezing temps following the core of the heaviest precip up through New England with everyone on the edges well above freezing. I would not be lubing my shovel quite yet unless I had inland elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DTs map looks awful. He needs a topo map to superimpose, and the western most region D will likely get the most snow becuase of it's elevation. And NYC gould get hammerd if the H5 low closes off in the right spot during nightime. Another problem with the map is it goes from A where there's a 60% chance of 12+ to E all rain without a middle area in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, if the April system is going to bust, we might as well track the snow slop that is coming tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, if the April system is going to bust, we might as well track the snow slop that is coming tommorow. East of I-81 it's really just going to be less than 1" probably. It will be close though, temperatures are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 East of I-81 it's really just going to be less than 1" probably. It will be close though, temperatures are very marginal. Indeed indeed, I am disappointed by the lack of cooling even in areas with no wind because dews are in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I will be riding the blizzard out at 850 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This has got to be the most horrible early spring forecast I have ever seen. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then rain. High near 39. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Night: Rain and snow before midnight, then a chance of snow. Low around 31. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a chance of rain between 9am and noon, then areas of drizzle after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night: Rain likely before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just what I was thinking. NAO just barely neutral to slightly positive for next ten days. Forget about the sun. Boy I hope all those forecasts get canned. Pleeeeeeez. Then we have the event this week which should have happened in Feb. Hope you all enjoy a passing flake with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpeedyWX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 (Most of) You guys slay me... you really do. You sit here on this decaying board virtually all day long and jibber jabber with wishcasts and slams at other people... And then DT posts a lengthy thoughtful piece analyzing the upcoming weather from several different angles, explaining this and that from a number of different models. And he even goes so far as to discuss what could go wrong. Oh, and when he busts, he brings it with full responsibility. And yet when he makes his posts on FB and wxrisk, you have nothing but derision. I just don't get it. I can't recall more than a small handful of long-timers on this board (or it's previous lives; you know what I mean) saying they busted. Or giving as detailed analyses, time and time and time again. Sheesh. I mean -- seriously -- you treat DT with virtually the same disgust and ridicule as JB. That's insane. DT provides detailed analysis and is FAR more likely to explain why we WON'T get the wished-for snowfall. SpeedyWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 (Most of) You guys slay me... you really do. You sit here on this decaying board virtually all day long and jibber jabber with wishcasts and slams at other people... And then DT posts a lengthy thoughtful piece analyzing the upcoming weather from several different angles, explaining this and that from a number of different models. And he even goes so far as to discuss what could go wrong. Oh, and when he busts, he brings it with full responsibility. And yet when he makes his posts on FB and wxrisk, you have nothing but derision. I just don't get it. I can't recall more than a small handful of long-timers on this board (or it's previous lives; you know what I mean) saying they busted. Or giving as detailed analyses, time and time and time again. Sheesh. I mean -- seriously -- you treat DT with virtually the same disgust and ridicule as JB. That's insane. DT provides detailed analysis and is FAR more likely to explain why we WON'T get the wished-for snowfall. SpeedyWX Cool story Tl;dr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cool story Tl;dr i shouldn't laugh, but i did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpeedyWX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 i shouldn't laugh, but i did Why would you laugh? SpeedyWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nam coming around to GFS solution...strengthening to our north...if the GFS and EURO continue to show it bombing north tonight, given it's almost april...bring on the warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nam coming around to GFS solution...strengthening to our north...if the GFS and EURO continue to show it bombing north tonight, given it's almost april...bring on the warmth! I wouldnt call it the GFS solution... since it only started to show that at 18z but starting with the 12Z euro everything has been moving in that direction for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Why would you laugh? SpeedyWX dt feeds off what he gets.. as do the others like him. i dont think taking a stand here is going to change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Why would you laugh? SpeedyWX Hey Dave. "Decaying" weather board.....'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM still hinted that storm 2 would develop further south at 18z. We will know soon if the RGEM has jumped ship towards the 18z GFS/Euro camp of a late developing second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nam says snow for me system 1. Surface at 32 and 850 is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM still hinted that storm 2 would develop further south at 18z. We will know soon if the RGEM has jumped ship towards the 18z GFS/Euro camp of a late developing second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nam says snow for me system 1. Surface at 32 and 850 is safe there's a lot of air between 850 and the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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