stormtracker Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 SREFS still wet, if not a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 SREFS still wet, if not a little wetter. for the rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think JB has been doing too much of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 for the rain event? That's the only one that I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The saddest part of all is I looked at this map saw the .5 inches of snow for my area and got excited for what might be the 3rd- biggest storm of the season here. Then I realized that 1) we're talking about a forecast of .5 inches of snow!!, and 2) if we'd gotten HALF the forecasted snow this year I'd be sitting at climo for the year instead of at 40%. I seem to recall a forecast of 2 inches only 2 days ago that ended up 48 degrees and sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the 18z nam is still frisky with the qpf for the first storm: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp24048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the 18z nam is still frisky with the qpf for the first storm: http://raleighwx.ame...8znamp24048.gif looks like rain within 20 miles of I95, if not further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 There have been 6 storms at DC since 1888 in the 3-6" range (well, none have made it to 6") Mar 30 or later. 4 happened in April. The most recent was 1964, the rest were all pre 1925. That's an odd stat. What you're basically saying is that there have been two snow storms on the last two days of March in DC in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That's an odd stat. What you're basically saying is that there have been two snow storms on the last two days of March in DC in recorded history. 2 storms greater than 3".. looks like 2 others of less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 looks like rain within 20 miles of I95, if not further west I would think so, yes, since that seems to be a prolonged qpf event, meaning it is falling lightly I would guess. This run of the NAM is holding that first storm off the coast a looonnnng time, which I would guess will keep it from modeling anything decent with the second system. Which will make the SNE folks grumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What in the wold is going on here? Why am I reading 3-12 for DC through NY based on a model run that is chock full o' rain? Me thinks not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What in the wold is going on here? Why am I reading 3-12 for DC through NY based on a model run that is chock full o' rain? Me thinks not. better issue some suicide watches for the NYC metro kiddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I would think so, yes, since that seems to be a prolonged qpf event, meaning it is falling lightly I would guess. This run of the NAM is holding that first storm off the coast a looonnnng time, which I would guess will keep it from modeling anything decent with the second system. Which will make the SNE folks grumpy. radar sim looks ok se of dc but the storm is coming in at basically the worst time for boundary layer hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is the 18z nam which is notorious for doing this kind of nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 radar sim looks ok se of dc but the storm is coming in at basically the worst time for boundary layer hopes Stop being so optimistic, JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The latest discussion from LWX has an implied shoutout to Ian: GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND TIME OFTHE YEAR AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...EVEN THOSE AREAS WHERE IT SNOWS MAY HAVE TROUBLE ACHIEVING ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY PRIMARILY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE HIGHLANDS...AND SINCE THAT STARTS LATE TONIGHT WILL PUT OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY HAVE A CONCERN FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST OF THIS ADVISORY AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THE 12Z NAM IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the 18z nam is still frisky with the qpf for the first storm: http://raleighwx.ame...8znamp24048.gif NAM almost always exaggerates precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM almost always exaggerates precip amounts. But it almost always has a couple crap runs that go against everything else out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 The latest discussion from LWX has an implied shoutout to Ian: Oh God. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Oh God. Please. i sure get a lot of grief for how right i am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 For fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 For fun: Not really seeing the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Not really seeing the fun Watching snow weenies complain about not getting snow when our average high is in the lower 60s makes me just want to drive the point home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Watching snow weenies complain about not getting snow when our average high is in the lower 60s makes me just want to drive the point home. Don't forecast with climo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That this is an "April Fool's Day" potential should say everything you need to know! (I know, I know, we did get a couple tenths of an inch the first weekend of April in 2007 so anything is possible and all that!). In keeping with April Fool's then... <Ji>We got more snow after Feb. 10 this year compared to last, and this winter was the fourth worst ever for me...so that means last winter really sucked! Especially if it weren't for Dec. 18-19, Jan. 30, Feb. 5-6 and Feb. 9-10!</Ji> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gfs disaster..but it's 18z. 00z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gfs disaster..but it's 18z. 00z will be telling Wide left for DC and NYC as BOS gets in some just barely... (EDIT: corrected BOS) I wonder when JB's going to back-track on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wide left for DC, NYC and BOS (just barely)... I wonder when JB's going to back-track on this one. You're joking on that one, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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