Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 10:14 PM, chris87 said: 18z NAM looks a tad slower...not really seeing your surface reflection, there was a slight reflection with a piece of energy ahead of the main impulse, if anything I would say the 18z NAM looks like it would go negative too soon with the main impulse. not sure i agree tho it was sort of an educated guess based off how the euro looked and that the second 'storm' should be forming somewhere around then. it also did have a closed contour on the surface in previous panels but sorta gets washed out at the end.yeah the trough does look a little slower but it might not really effect the surface low which seems to form in the wake of the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 10:21 PM, eurojosh said: For DC, that is an extremely heavy, cold, wet..... rain. Yeah but its pretty close to something special, especially for NW suburbs. Just a jog to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 the surface reflection you see is a weak surface low associated with a weak mid level impulse juxtaposed with an upper level jet entrance region in earlier panels. regardless the main pressure trough associated with the second wave is stronger, so i'm not seeing the relationship between the first weaker surface reflection and the second, stronger wave anyways, i'm sure you could try to make an argument of how antecedent low pressure along the SE coast may affect the evolution, but with a strong trough, the dynamic response, in my opinion, far outweighs the weak surface reflection off the SE coast. remember pressure change is a dynamic response, it is fluid, a low pressure doesn't track, as much as it is constantly redeveloping in response to the atmospheric forcing. just my two cents of analysis On 3/28/2011 at 10:36 PM, Ian said: not sure i agree tho it was sort of an educated guess based off how the euro looked and that the second 'storm' should be forming somewhere around then. it also did have a closed contour on the surface in previous panels but sorta gets washed out at the end.yeah the trough does look a little slower but it might not really effect the surface low which seems to form in the wake of the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:10 PM, chris87 said: the surface reflection you see is a weak surface low associated with a weak mid level impulse juxtaposed with an upper level jet entrance region in earlier panels. regardless the main pressure trough associated with the second wave is stronger, so i'm not seeing the relationship between the first weaker surface reflection and the second, stronger wave anyways, i'm sure you could try to make an argument of how antecedent low pressure along the SE coast may affect the evolution, but with a strong trough, the dynamic response, in my opinion, far outweighs the weak surface reflection off the SE coast. remember pressure change is a dynamic response, it is fluid, a low pressure doesn't track, as much as it is constantly redeveloping in response to the atmospheric forcing. just my two cents of analysis the h5 trough differences between the nam and gfs are moderate but not amazing. every model that i know of (honestly i dont look at a lot of the crappy ones mentioned here all the time) seems to key in on that same moisture area at the surface. it is somewhat detached from the larger trough to the west compared to many, but im not sure that means it cant be the main deal. i guess you are offering up that the NAM would give some solution that is otherwise not currently on the table. i guess that's possible. then again at this point i wonder how much analysis is needed post 84 hr 18z nam. i dont believe we get two storms worth talking about (though honestly the odds of snow of any meaning are very low outside elevation unless we see more changes in the right direction).. one or the other is bound to be larger and diminish 'prospects' for the other.. unless the second one slows down a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 i hear ya...wish i had time to respond with a more formal analysis... this whole winter has seemed to be a convoluted mess. On 3/28/2011 at 11:21 PM, Ian said: the h5 trough differences between the nam and gfs are moderate but not amazing. every model that i know of (honestly i dont look at a lot of the crappy ones mentioned here all the time) seems to key in on that same moisture area at the surface. it is somewhat detached from the larger trough to the west compared to many, but im not sure that means it cant be the main deal. i guess you are offering up that the NAM would give some solution that is otherwise not currently on the table. i guess that's possible. then again at this point i wonder how much analysis is needed post 84 hr 18z nam. i dont believe we get two storms worth talking about (though honestly the odds of snow of any meaning are very low outside elevation unless we see more changes in the right direction).. one or the other is bound to be larger and diminish 'prospects' for the other.. unless the second one slows down a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Don Quixote ain't got sh-t on the Mid-Atlantic subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 12:04 AM, WxUSAF said: Don Quixote ain't got sh-t on the Mid-Atlantic subforum So true!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 12:04 AM, WxUSAF said: Don Quixote ain't got sh-t on the Mid-Atlantic subforum At least Don Quixote never had to deal with reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 0z nam taking everything outta storm 2 and focusing on the main trough. i guess it is kicking out a different scenario than the gfs/euro. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084m.gif' storm 1 is lol. i bet the gfs will suck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 3:17 AM, Ian said: 0z nam taking everything outta storm 2 and focusing on the main trough. i guess it is kicking out a different scenario than the gfs/euro. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084m.gif' storm 1 is lol. i bet the gfs will suck tonight. its got storm 2, and actually when the euro had the bomb for the weekend 3 runs ago it was delayed like the NAM is now. A few runs of other models have keyed on the main trough also. Its just one of several options, models are having major issues but in the end I do think things will consolidate and one system will bomb, just not sure how/when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 gfs look wet for storm 1. over .25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS has 2nd storm...winter over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM and GFS look identical at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 its already April....7 months till we start tracking snowstorms again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 anyone staying up for the EURO? Im putting an all nigter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Boom Destruction 12-18 of heavy wet. This will help us reach normal April snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 atomic quadruple phase at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the only problem with the snow is that its really rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 congrats Trixie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 MRB 12-18 inches of snow Leesburg 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 i spent the past 11 days tracking the return of winter only to see a dusting on sunday and heavy rain Thursday with a place 15 miles of me getting 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 congrats psuhoffman except your not at psu anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS BOMB!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078m.gif someone in the high elevation apps could get pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 4:20 AM, KMUWx91 said: GFS BOMB!!! GFS is bombed or stoned. Can't wait to see what it has in store for it's next run. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS ensemble mean not even close to operational . Ensemble mean is a little further north for storm 1, but is much farther east for storm 2. Congrats, Ji. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 4:55 AM, MDstorm said: GFS ensemble mean not even close to operational . Ensemble mean is a little further north for storm 1, but is much farther east for storm 2. Congrats, Ji. MDstorm ji needs to chill out, models are all over the place and he is going to have a stroke over each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 4:58 AM, psuhoffman said: ji needs to chill out, models are all over the place and he is going to have a stroke over each run True, true, and true. What's your gut telling you about this week, hoff? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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