eyewall Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Good luck with your chase. Maybe with a little luck the front will stay a little north and your area will also get in on the action. Thank you I hope that can happen. Backdoors are tricky to be sure. The boundary will be key to where the best TOR chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 There is a boundary dropping south through Raleigh as of 6:30pm. Looks like some showers are trying to fire in response. They are fast movers for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Check out the difference between the GFS and NAM MOS for tomorrow's high at KGSO. Frontal placement means everything, I guess. GFS MOS (MAV) KGSO GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/08/2011 1200 UTC DT /APR 8/APR 9 /APR 10 /APR 11 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 56 76 58 83 63 TMP 67 70 65 62 61 58 58 66 72 73 69 63 60 59 60 71 79 81 77 70 67 DPT 47 49 50 53 55 54 53 54 55 55 54 55 57 57 59 61 61 61 61 61 60 CLD BK OV OV BK CL CL OV OV BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV SC OV OV SC OV WDR 23 24 24 27 27 32 02 06 06 11 11 12 15 17 18 19 20 20 18 20 21 WSP 07 07 03 03 04 04 03 06 06 07 07 05 05 03 04 06 08 11 08 09 08 P06 41 29 8 10 34 28 13 0 1 2 5 P12 29 34 31 1 7 Q06 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 29/33 22/14 1/ 6 3/ 8 34/30 36/12 8/ 8 7/10 5/24 1/ 5 T12 32/35 3/ 9 55/30 13/10 10/30 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 0 CIG 7 7 7 8 8 8 3 4 6 7 7 4 3 3 3 4 8 8 8 4 5 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N HZ N N N N N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N NAM MOS (MET) KGSO NAM MOS GUIDANCE 4/08/2011 1200 UTC DT /APR 8/APR 9 /APR 10 /APR 11 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 55 57 50 78 63 TMP 70 71 68 64 61 58 56 55 53 53 52 52 52 51 54 65 74 78 74 67 66 DPT 54 56 57 56 54 52 49 48 48 49 48 46 46 47 50 53 58 60 61 62 61 CLD BK OV BK FW OV SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC BK BK WDR 25 28 28 23 26 04 04 05 04 05 05 23 22 20 22 21 22 19 17 21 21 WSP 06 08 04 10 03 04 08 08 06 06 04 06 04 03 03 06 07 09 08 11 08 P06 52 3 4 3 35 30 23 0 6 2 7 P12 5 37 36 15 7 Q06 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 15/22 10/10 11/ 6 6/10 11/15 8/ 5 9/ 3 5/ 5 15/17 4/ 4 T12 20/22 16/10 22/15 15/ 7 25/17 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 8 6 8 8 7 8 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 2 2 4 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 4 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N BR N BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N One of these models will look really bad tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 If that one cell in particular holds that's currently crossing Floyd county in VA, Eden and Reidsville NC could be next in line. On another note, if we can get conditions to set up right (which I will go ahead and assume they will at this point), we could get some bowing segments to develop thanks to the strong westerly dominant winds aloft. A nice kick to the atmosphere from an approaching disturbance should aid the stationary front for convective action to occur once we get into the later hours of the afternoon. Should make for a fun period tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 interesting cell north of Stoneville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 getting ready for that cell just north and west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Splitsville here in h'boro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 If that one cell in particular holds that's currently crossing Floyd county in VA, Eden and Reidsville NC could be next in line. I taught in Floyd VA for 5 years back in the 70s. Great place if you like outdoor activities. Only 1 red light in the entire county even today. All streams flow out of the county and it is the only county in VA without a RR track. Real interesting weather too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 There's some more convection firing up in WV/KY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion now out for cluster heading towards Triangle: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 090110Z - 090215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SEWD INTO N CNTRL NC...AND MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED COVERAGE...A WW MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY. WEDGE FRONT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NERN NC WWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL NC. A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WV SWD THROUGH NRN AL HAS ALLOWED A SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERITY OF CONVECTION N OF THE WEDGE FRONT...DESPITE THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. 00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH MAY IMPEDE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG WLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AN EML TO SPREAD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL IN ANY ELEVATED STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEDGE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion now out for cluster heading towards Triangle: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 090110Z - 090215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SEWD INTO N CNTRL NC...AND MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED COVERAGE...A WW MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY. WEDGE FRONT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NERN NC WWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL NC. A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WV SWD THROUGH NRN AL HAS ALLOWED A SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERITY OF CONVECTION N OF THE WEDGE FRONT...DESPITE THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. 00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH MAY IMPEDE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG WLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AN EML TO SPREAD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL IN ANY ELEVATED STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEDGE FRONT. Still dry here in Splitville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Still dry here in Splitville... I just clicked your location and the obs said thunderstorm Haze. The radar filled in right after dodging you to the east, but maybe the line just exiting GSO and DAN will hold together long enough, without splitting Also, chances are good through the night and again tomorrow, but it probably shifts toward my area tomorrow...atleast it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Just saw/heard my first lightning/thunder since February 2010. Small victories, small victories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I just clicked your location and the obs said thunderstorm Haze. The radar filled in right after dodging you to the east, but maybe the line just exiting GSO and DAN will hold together long enough, without splitting Also, chances are good through the night and again tomorrow, but it probably shifts toward my area tomorrow...atleast it better. Storms are just to my SW... drizzle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warning up in southern Rockingham County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is up for the northeastern two-thirds of Guilford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 tornado warning surry county and northeastern alleghany... going to pass just west of Mount Airy proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 0.16" of rain. nothing severe as we got split by all 3 lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 .65" overnight. What a change from yesterday. Cloudy and clammy this morning, with a wind chill of 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 87 here at 5 pm. No wind, no clouds. That is more than enough summer for me already...and such a long way to fall. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Looks like I total 1.02 inches from today's rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 1.02" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 what does it look like for monday afternoon? I have heard another severe line coming and i have heard nothing at all for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 1.02" for the event. 0.99" for the month so far, 0.62" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 0.65 from yesterday's severe weather... and 1.33 so far for the month of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Had 1.43" total rain for the storms yesterday. I was fortunate to miss out on the largest hail and now have 2.10" for April. A very good start to what is usually the driest month of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 1.28" from last nights' storms. April is being kind... 2.77" for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 From FFC for next weekend... MAIN IMPACTS ON GEORGIA WEATHER WILL BE CHC FOR STORMS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TOO SOON TO JUMP ON THESE SOLUTIONS SO HAVE TEMPERED GUIDANCE TEMPS WHICH HAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EVEN HAD TO DUST OFF MY WINTER WEATHER AWIPS PROCEDURES TO MAKE SURE THE MODELS DIDNT HAVE ANY SNOW PROGGED NEAR US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Hopefully tomorrow night want be as big a wind threat like we had with front from earlier this week. Possible 45+ gust according to RAH HWO; .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS The wedge finally gave in after lunch today and we made it into the 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Had 1.43" total rain for the storms yesterday. I was fortunate to miss out on the largest hail and now have 2.10" for April. A very good start to what is usually the driest month of the year. I was thinking the same thing. I'm interested to see if this is the month that switches, like it usually does for my area. In most of the last few years, pretty much going back to around 1999, we'd go really dry until August atleast, sometimes September. The good news is the pattern still looks just as active as can be. System after system is slated for 2 more weeks yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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