April

[Lookout]

glad i didnt plant anything yet! was 31.2 when i took the dog out this morning. a decent frost as well - still visible in the shady areas at 9 am

31.7 here this morning with a light frost. Donalds sc across the river reported 29 so low lying areas were probably colder. Hopefully this is the last one. But it was absolutely gorgoues today..the bright blue sky, bright sun, the best looking green grass I've seen in a while, and the new leaves on the trees made for a spectacular looking day. Does not get any prettier than it was today.

Yep looks like nothing but boredom for awhile. No chance to make up for the severe fail anytime soon .

I hate these long boring periods. Imagine months on end of it though. I don't know how people out in the southwest stand it. I know they might have some interesting and fun weather some times of the year but the long stretches of no weather to speak of except heat would make me go nuts.

[blueheronNC]

I hate these long boring periods. Imagine months on end of it though. I don't know how people out in the southwest stand it.

Hi. Welcome to my life. Since I moved away to the San Francisco Bay Area from Durham in November 2009, I haven't made more than literally a handful of weather-related posts (<---- see post count compared to the thousands I had on easternus) . It really sucks to have a hobby killed like that.

Will be visiting the Triangle for the next few days, though. Just in time to have back-door coldfront issues and the entire realm of excitement being strictly a temperature/cloudcover forecast.

[downeastnc]

Hi. Welcome to my life. Since I moved away to the San Francisco Bay Area from Durham in November 2009, I haven't made more than literally a handful of weather-related posts (<---- see post count compared to the thousands I had on easternus) . It really sucks to have a hobby killed like that.

Will be visiting the Triangle for the next few days, though. Just in time to have back-door coldfront issues and the entire realm of excitement being strictly a temperature/cloudcover forecast.

Sucks not having you in the SE anymore........going to go to Bum's and have a plate in your honor........

[Isopycnic]

Hi. Welcome to my life. Since I moved away to the San Francisco Bay Area from Durham in November 2009, I haven't made more than literally a handful of weather-related posts (<---- see post count compared to the thousands I had on easternus) . It really sucks to have a hobby killed like that.

Will be visiting the Triangle for the next few days, though. Just in time to have back-door coldfront issues and the entire realm of excitement being strictly a temperature/cloudcover forecast.

Hey, long time no see! how's things?

[buckeyefan1]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0229 AM CDT THU APR 07 2011

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE

CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH

VALLEY SEWD TO ERN GA...SC AND WRN/SRN NC...

...ERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW

DAYS SHOWING THE WRN TROUGH BECOMING PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY AND

REACHING THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

FROM THE SWRN STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MO RIVER

VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS

IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER NEB /LIKELY ATTENDANT TO A LEAD

IMPULSE/ MOVES INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW

LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE

NWD...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER

MS VALLEY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESIDE E OF A DRY LINE

EXTENDING FROM THE NEB LOW SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX.

A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ATOP THE

MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH

GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM

MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE IN NRN OK TO THE MID MO

VALLEY. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD

NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS AND

STRENGTHENS TO 60 KT WITH A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TO

SEVERE STORMS.

...LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD TO ERN GA/CAROLINAS...

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON

FRIDAY SHOULD TRACK SEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN 40-50 KT NWLY

FLOW ALOFT REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING

OFFSHORE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MO ESEWD INTO KY

AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 2 CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS

OF THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR NEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY. LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON DAY 2 /FRI/ INTO THESE REGIONS WILL

CONTINUE ON DAY 3 /SAT/ WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S ACROSS

THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND

7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE

INSTABILITY /UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND

50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE

DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR... HIGHER PROBABILITIES

MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN PRIMARY FOCUS

AREAS PRECLUDES THIS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 04/07/2011

[Gastonwxman]

It looks like the backdoor front that's expected to drop in for the weekend will aid in some thunderstorm development across NC and SC. Before, it didn't seem like it would do much but now given the setup aloft suggested by some of the modeling (the 0z NAM in particular), including the increased moisture level, some good lifting, and tapping into daytime heating, we could actually get in on some decent convection. We will need to watch how the short wave back west behaves as it departs from the Plains and heads eastward. A correct timing on its part can really assist with producing more storms in a widespread fashion. If what SPC says about our instability and bulk shear verifies, some severe weather is possible during the late afternoon/evening period. It will all depend on the timing and strength of the cold front but this has now got my interest.

[eyewall]

Wow nice to see the slight risk come up for Saturday This makes me happy. I have an obligation so I dont know how much chasing I can do but I will see what I can do outside of that.

[superjames1992]

The SREF and NAM are on board for a light precip event Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS shows nothing but dry weather as the system slides off to the north.

[POWERSTROKE]

The SREF and NAM are on board for a light precip event Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS shows nothing but dry weather as the system slides off to the north.

fox 8 says 50% chance tomorrow. I thought rain was gone!!! Man we need a break so we can get some work done

[MountainMarvel]

no frost but 32 here this morning. I think most of us outside the mountains are now done with frost until next October or November. No cold air showing up in any model runs, but atleast we get 2 more weak fronts next week each with a little bit of rain. Also, there's no huge outrageous heatwaves yet, ie, 588dm ridges in the Southeast. I'm going to enjoy the warmer, sunny weather.

I've had ice on the cars four of the first seven mornings of April. Low was 29 yesterday, 33 this morning. Last year, my last morning with ice was May 10th. That means four more weeks before the coast is clear..... Being from Miami, I don't mind a bit. Here are two pics from Lake Lure on Sunday, and one from this frosty morning. Heaven on Earth.

[eyewall]

Looks like I will be chasing on Saturday afternoon toward SC if storms fire up.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Looks like I will be chasing on Saturday afternoon toward SC if storms fire up.

Looks like that will be your best bet. I'm wondering how much instability will materialize in NC?. The NAM has been hinting at a lot of cloudiness Saturday with even a very shallow wedge showing up and handing around most of the day with northeast winds in the lowest layers. I believe the NAM pushes the backdoor front further south than the other models, but these fronts can often make it further south than predicted. Good luck and good chasing!

[eyewall]

Looks like that will be your best bet. I'm wondering how much instability will materialize in NC?. The NAM has been hinting at a lot of cloudiness Saturday with even a very shallow wedge showing up and handing around most of the day with northeast winds in the lowest layers. I believe the NAM pushes the backdoor front further south than the other models, but these fronts can often make it further south than predicted. Good luck and good chasing!

Thank you and yes the wedge boundary will have to be watched. We will have to see if any storms can fire and cross the front which always enhances the TOR risk.

[Gastonwxman]

Could be some super cell development if everything comes together correctly for a few folks. The deep layer and directional shear looks impressive and high lapse rates look sufficient to cause some of the severe cells that do develop to cause some nasty wind damage to occur. Don't know if it would be on par with the past event but it bears watching.

[eyewall]

Could be some super cell development if everything comes together correctly for a few folks. The deep layer and directional shear looks impressive and high lapse rates look sufficient to cause some of the severe cells that do develop to cause some nasty wind damage to occur. Don't know if it would be on par with the past event but it bears watching.

Yeah definitely looks solid on the shear end of things. The previous event was a QLCS. I would much rather have a few discrete supercells to chase

[eyewall]

Looks like the day 1 slight was extended a bit east as well

[buckeyefan1]

Looks like the day 1 slight was extended a bit east as well

Beat me to it

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1111 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK/KS INTO PORTIONS OF THE

MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE

WRN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CA TODAY...WHILE

WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT...RATHER STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW

AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SEVERAL AREAS TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN NC EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS

APPALACHIANS THRU WRN WV AND THEN WWD TO N OF OH RIVER...THEN WSWWD

ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SWRN KS/OK BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES THE

LARGE WARM SECTOR TO THE S WHICH IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION FROM

BOTH THE PRESENCE OF AN EML AND ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE...AND A

COOLER AIR MASS TO THE N.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO WRN CAROLINAS...

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE EWD ACROSS KY/TN TO S OF

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S. STRONG

HEATING IS OCCURRING THIS AM OVER LOWER OH VALLEY AND WILL LEAD TO A

MDTLY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG COUPLED WITH BRN SHEAR OF 50-60KT WILL

PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT PARTICULARLY FOR

LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STORMS SHOULD INITIATE VICINITY/S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR OH RIVER

BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINE

SEGMENTS/BOWS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD

BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL GIVEN THE EXPECTED

ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED BOTH

WIND/HAIL PROBS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A HIGHER RISK OF WIND IF

STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ADDITIONALLY HAVE SPREAD

THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS IT NOW APPEARS

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED

THREAT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF SHEAR.

...OK/KS INTO MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING...

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER EASTWARD

INTO MO/IL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST

KS DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING

MOISTURE WILL HELP TO REDUCE CAP AND AID IN INITIATION. WITH

MLCAPES RISING TO 3000 J/KG SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO

THE MID MS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY AFTER

MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH

LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN BE

SUSTAINED IT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY

LARGE HAIL. EXPECTED COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE INCREASING LOWER RISK

COVERAGE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...GULF COAST STATES...

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE GULF COAST REGION THIS

MORNING WITH MID/UPR 60 DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS TN.

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE RETARDING THE HEATING THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER...CINH WILL DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED

WITH TRAILING ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TN AND MAY

RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGE

CAPE/MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

[Cheeznado]

A bit surprised that SPC is not including GA and AL in the slight risk- lots of CAPE, the HRRR breaks out storms by 21Z or so.

[superjames1992]

A bit surprised that SPC is not including GA and AL in the slight risk- lots of CAPE, the HRRR breaks out storms by 21Z or so.

HRRR also gives a decent pop to central/eastern NC tonight.

[superjames1992]

You can kind of see a little line starting to get organized in northern NC/southern VA and moving towards the southeast.

EDIT: Well, as of 4:21 PM, the "line" I was talking about died out.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE....

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AS A

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE

TO INCREASE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP TOWARDS

ONE INCH ON CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS LI VALUES APPROACH -5C

BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION

THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND LINGER

THEM INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARMER

AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF

THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND STALL. THIS WILL

PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AS A

SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE

WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI VALUES IN THE -5 TO -7 RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE

LOWER 60S. WILL PUT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 RANGE. ISOLATED SEVERE

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE

MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT

OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. :gun_bandana: LITTLE COOL AIR FOLLOWS THIS

FRONTAL SYSTEM AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA

AND GEORGIA AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE

ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.. THE

RECORD HIGH FOR SUNDAY AT COLUMBIA METROPOLITAN AIRPORT IS 91

DEGREES AND THE RECORD HIGH FOR SUNDAY AT AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD IS 90

DEGREES.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AS A STORM

SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE

APPROACHING FRONT WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INDICATE WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS HAVE

THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE.

MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THE NAM

IS WEAKER AND SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT THAN THE GFS...LEANED

TOWARD FASTER GFS.

COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER

THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND REMAIN IN

THAT RANGE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY

THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.

HPC GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PAST MONDAY...WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE FOLLOWED

FOR THE EARLIER PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --

[buckeyefan1]

A bit surprised that SPC is not including GA and AL in the slight risk- lots of CAPE, the HRRR breaks out storms by 21Z or so.

Maybe you will get lucky with some storms later today

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0231 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL AL INTO CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081931Z - 082130Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...AND IT STILL APPEARS

UNLIKELY THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND

DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL

ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF

ENHANCED MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOES APPEAR TO

BE SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS

OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION

BENEATH THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLAINS.

IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LIFT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME

REMAINING INHIBITION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

IF THIS OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR

ALONG A 30-50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET WILL BE

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS... AND PERHAPS UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH

INTO SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD

BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/08/2011

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...

[superjames1992]

Check out the difference between the GFS and NAM MOS for tomorrow's high at KGSO. Frontal placement means everything, I guess.

GFS MOS (MAV)
KGSO   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/08/2011  1200 UTC                      
DT /APR   8/APR   9                /APR  10                /APR  11 
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
N/X                    56          76          58          83    63 
TMP  67 70 65 62 61 58 58 66 72 73 69 63 60 59 60 71 79 81 77 70 67 
DPT  47 49 50 53 55 54 53 54 55 55 54 55 57 57 59 61 61 61 61 61 60 
CLD  BK OV OV BK CL CL OV OV BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV SC OV OV SC OV 
WDR  23 24 24 27 27 32 02 06 06 11 11 12 15 17 18 19 20 20 18 20 21 
WSP  07 07 03 03 04 04 03 06 06 07 07 05 05 03 04 06 08 11 08 09 08 
P06        41    29     8    10    34    28    13     0     1  2  5 
P12                    29          34          31           1     7 
Q06         1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
Q12                     0           0           0           0     0 
T06     29/33 22/14  1/ 6  3/ 8 34/30 36/12  8/ 8  7/10  5/24  1/ 5 
T12           32/35        3/ 9       55/30       13/10    10/30    
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
SNW                     0                       0                 0 
CIG   7  7  7  8  8  8  3  4  6  7  7  4  3  3  3  4  8  8  8  4  5 
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  5  5  5  7  7  7  7  7  7 
OBV   N  N  N  N  N HZ  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N 

NAM MOS (MET)
KGSO   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    4/08/2011  1200 UTC                      
DT /APR   8/APR   9                /APR  10                /APR  11 
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
N/X                    55          57          50          78    63 
TMP  70 71 68 64 61 58 56 55 53 53 52 52 52 51 54 65 74 78 74 67 66 
DPT  54 56 57 56 54 52 49 48 48 49 48 46 46 47 50 53 58 60 61 62 61 
CLD  BK OV BK FW OV SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC BK BK 
WDR  25 28 28 23 26 04 04 05 04 05 05 23 22 20 22 21 22 19 17 21 21 
WSP  06 08 04 10 03 04 08 08 06 06 04 06 04 03 03 06 07 09 08 11 08 
P06        52     3     4     3    35    30    23     0     6  2  7 
P12                     5          37          36          15     7 
Q06         1     0     0     0     1     0     0     0     0  0  0 
Q12                     0           0           0           0     0 
T06     15/22 10/10 11/ 6  6/10 11/15  8/ 5  9/ 3  5/ 5 15/17  4/ 4 
T12           20/22       16/10       22/15       15/ 7    25/17    
SNW                     0                       0                 0 
CIG   8  6  8  8  7  8  1  2  2  3  3  3  3  4  2  2  4  8  8  8  8 
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  4  4  3  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR  N BR BR BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 

[eyewall]

HRRR also gives a decent pop to central/eastern NC tonight.

That figures. I have a gig to play tonight. Won't be able to get out there. I am hoping there is still hope tomorrow in SC. That may end up a bit of a linear mode though.

[blueheronNC]

Appears that a convergence boundary is slipping ESE across central NC right now. Seems like subsidence is filling/clearing out instability behind this boundary off the Blue Ridge. Think any convective initiation will be to the S of the Triangle over upstate SC, the Sandhills and coastal plain, perhaps associated with some mid-level energy that seems to be entering upstate SC at the moment:

[ryan1234]

That figures. I have a gig to play tonight. Won't be able to get out there. I am hoping there is still hope tomorrow in SC. That may end up a bit of a linear mode though.

There is also hope in NC also... at least in my neck of the woods. Seems my area into northern SC might have an enhanced tornado risk.

[eyewall]

Appears that a convergence boundary is slipping ESE across central NC right now. Seems like subsidence is filling/clearing out instability behind this boundary off the Blue Ridge. Think any convective initiation will be to the S of the Triangle over upstate SC, the Sandhills and coastal plain, perhaps associated with some mid-level energy that seems to be entering upstate SC at the moment:

Just took a look at the mesoanalysis which matches up reasonably well with where you place the convergence zone.

[eyewall]

There is also hope in NC also... at least in my neck of the woods. Seems my area into northern SC might have an enhanced tornado risk.

Yeah I am going to head that way after 1pm tomorrow (if everything looks the same at that time).

[ryan1234]

Yeah I am going to head that way after 1pm tomorrow (if everything looks the same at that time).

Good luck with your chase. Maybe with a little luck the front will stay a little north and your area will also get in on the action.

[superjames1992]

I think some of what is currently building in West Virginia could move south this evening.