April

[griteater]

UKMet has a negative tilt trough and 984mb bomb over Charleston on April 1. Not an April Fools joke (not until the next model run anyway).

[FoothillsNC]

UKMet has a negative tilt trough and 984mb bomb over Charleston on April 1. Not an April Fools joke (not until the next model run anyway).

the ecmwf and GFS have been at odds, no suprise their. Haven't seen the Ukmet yet (doing tax stuff lately). The GFS separates the flow on the late week system and the Euro was being more progressive, either one gives us rain, but theres a chance at a phasing right over the Southeast, which would be blockbuster. Thats unusual though, but not heard of.. Most models hold on to continued overall troughiness in the east, and occasional rain and cool shots, which is what we need.

[Gastonwxman]

No joke indeed. The image says it all. Now that you mentioned it, the 12z Euro's similar in bombing the low, though not as much as the Ukie and a noticeable difference in how it positions the low from 120-144 but still shows the same push of cold air as the Ukie's advertising by 4/1.

[Carvers Gap]

UKMET, again today? April Fools stuff is going a bit to extremes w/ a little support from the Euro?

[FallsLake]

Just looked at the GFS long range (been focused on current event) and man it shows the cold. Looks like something interesting (like current event) maybe at 120 hours, and then cold waves all the way out to day 16. We could get hard freezes for the next two weeks. There goes my fruit tree buds (if they don't get killed tonight).

[superjames1992]

I don't really see any realistic snow threats in April. That said, it looks like a parade of storms should predominate during the first half of the month with colder than average temperatures. Could be some nasty freezes, but climatologically it is very unlikely that we get snow. That said, if there is a pattern in which we could get an April snow, this is it, I suppose.

[FoothillsNC]

I don't really see any realistic snow threats in April. That said, it looks like a parade of storms should predominate during the first half of the month with colder than average temperatures. Could be some nasty freezes, but climatologically it is very unlikely that we get snow. That said, if there is a pattern in which we could get an April snow, this is it, I suppose.

The system Friday has potential for the Apps, but thats all for now, just potential. Crashing heights, a strong vort maybe too..it really depends on a lot going in place at just the right time, but for the mtns of NC and TN, esp. northern areas, it could happen. Quick cool down again this weekend, but atleast the sun comes back. April is a month known for its extreme amplification, so once every few years the Apps have to be on guard against the possibility of a strong cutoff. The models already show a strong amp. system around day 10, but of course the timing of s/w could be way off.

[FoothillsNC]

April will start off active as a whole. Both GFS and ECMWF have a deep trough somewhere around April 5 through 8 or so, with a strong cold snap possible. If nothing else, more rain is likely, probably followed by a frost.

[Lookout]

April will start off active as a whole. Both GFS and ECMWF have a deep trough somewhere around April 5 through 8 or so, with a strong cold snap possible. If nothing else, more rain is likely, probably followed by a frost.

This is what I feared most heading into this spring, especially when we suddenly turned warm for a long time..you just knew it would come back to bite us. I sure would hate to get a freeze this late.

[wx4life]

This is what I feared most heading into this spring, especially when we suddenly turned warm for a long time..you just knew it would come back to bite us. I sure would hate to get a freeze this late.

Agreed.I have said the same as well.I knew the cold wasn't finished around here.My Azaleas are budding and saw some buds on the rose bushes.Hydranga has also come back to life.I will be so upset if a freeze gets to them.

[FoothillsNC]

we have so many threads I wasn't sure which one to put this in, but it doesnt' matter, its all weather. The ECMWF continues its cut-off idea in days 7 through 10. It prints out amazing rain totals as the 3 contour upper low slowly wobbles from central Texas to central GA and off the SC coast finally. The total rains (cumulative-including tomorrows and Fridays system) are over 6" in parts of SC, NC and GA and scattered 5 to 6" across a good chunk of the Southeast, obviously just a rough estimate, but the point is, if there is a strong upper low slowly taking that track, there will be more heavy rains, and this time probably major rains. I think though the Euro is in error with this, and will eventually lose this idea, and side with the GFS. The GFS doesn't detach the southern portion of the trough, instead takes it bodily east. That will make a huge difference. It will be interesting to see which model caves in first. Both options are totally legit of course, there's been cutoffs in April before, so its not that uncommon. And a perfect track along the interior Gulf states would argue for a flooding rain event, esp. considering how wet its been, but again, I'm not leaning that way yet. Not to mention, severe and hail that occurs under cold core cutoffs (this one isn't that cold though). I will say the rain totals in some sections would be way over the 6" shown though if the 3 contour cutoff did occur in the ECMWF fashion, but those details would be ironed out later if the track becomes valid , which is a long shot right now.

[superjames1992]

I don't know what thread to put this in, so I'll put it here.

18z NAM is putting forth our infamous Carolina Split for the rainstorm tomorrow. Not that we still don't get sufficient rainfall, but this could still hurt us some in regards to how much rain we get. The 12z run did not have this, so it may just be a blip.

Then you have the GFS whose solution is entirely different... (though is that convective feedback near just south of the FL panhandle?)

[FoothillsNC]

I don't know what thread to put this in, so I'll put it here.

18z NAM is putting forth our infamous Carolina Split for the rainstorm tomorrow. Not that we still don't get sufficient rainfall, but this could still hurt us some in regards to how much rain we get. The 12z run did not have this, so it may just be a blip.

I was just looking at the same thing. Most likely the main frontal band and convergence developing right now in wst. TN and Ky is going to be the convergence zone, that eventually sags south toward the Carolinas, but the X factor is the convection line that might develop, so the NAM might be in the ballpark here. Its actually pretty likely there will be a min somewhere in the heart of the Carolinas, but still everyone gets some rain. It would be nice if the convergence zone was maximized squarely in the Carolinas, where its badly needed. Atleast we have many chances over the next 10 days, so we're chipping away at it. Meanwhile, GA and Al are really piling it on.

[FoothillsNC]

00zECM still had the cutoff, but its not as long lasting or slow moving, so its tipping toward GFS in my opinion. Still a very active pattern and another front coming through at the least next Tuesday/Wed.

[eyewall]

Thankfully we don't have the heat like we did at the start of April last year. That of course led to a brutal summer that made me question why I came to NC in the first place. Hopefully we can avoid that this year.

[FoothillsNC]

Thankfully we don't have the heat like we did at the start of April last year. That of course led to a brutal summer that made me question why I came to NC in the first place. Hopefully we can avoid that this year.

I remember early April last year and was just amazed at the heat so early. It never really let up,and we went into a terrible hot and dry pattern from then until September. Just an unreal, long hot dry Summer here. Until then though, I remember thinking how late Feb and into most of March was pretty nice and Springlike.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I doubt we will ever experience summer as hot and LONG as last summer. I don't think a lot of records were broken, but the heat was so persistent. I think we even had 90s in Mid to Late September. Also the humidity was the worst that I ever remember.

[Lookout]

I doubt we will ever experience summer as hot and LONG as last summer. I don't think a lot of records were broken, but the heat was so persistent. I think we even had 90s in Mid to Late September. Also the humidity was the worst that I ever remember.

IIRC For many locations, it was the most 90 degree days ever recorded, so it wasn't just everyone's imagination that it was hotter than normal. I sure pray we don't have a repeat of last year.

[Weather Czar]

Thankfully we don't have the heat like we did at the start of April last year. That of course led to a brutal summer that made me question why I came to NC in the first place. Hopefully we can avoid that this year.

Summer in the Mtns is not too bad, You need to move west about 200 miles. Winter's are much better too!

[buckeyefan1]

IIRC For many locations, it was the most 90 degree days ever recorded, so it wasn't just everyone's imagination that it was hotter than normal. I sure pray we don't have a repeat of last year.

Last summer will be forever imprinted in my memory

[Gastonwxman]

Thankfully we don't have the heat like we did at the start of April last year. That of course led to a brutal summer that made me question why I came to NC in the first place. Hopefully we can avoid that this year.

I mentioned about that on the March thread how here temperatures were pushing close to 90° during the first week, which was really amazing to see that much surge of warmth get so far north. Thankfully we won't have to contend with that this go around.

April 1-7 2010 Highs:

2nd: 87°

5th: 87°

6th: 89°

[griteater]

For Charlotte, 2010 had the 2nd most 90+ days in history (87 days). Record is 1954 (88 days). Years with the least number of 90+ days were 1967 (8 days) and 2003 (9 days).

[UNCCmetgrad]

Looks like the EURO has lost the cutoff for next week. It does form a weak cutoff that moves through the southwest. However it opens up into a sharp trough as it moves out of the Rockies. As this trough goes slightly negative just west of the Mississippi River the surface low forms much further north (versus the 00Z run) over Tennessee and then moves through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern lakes region while deepening. This greatly decreases the threat of widespread flooding rains the EURO had in earlier runs over northern Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas. However some flooding and severe weather remain a threat as there should be some healthy frontal convection late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning but as I said the flooding threat is of greater concern to areas that have seen excessive rainfall already this month. This all being said we are definitely not out of the woods yet as the 12Z GFS has trended south with its surface low from 00Z and brings a greater threat of excessive rainfall (4"+) to northern Georgia, the mountains of the NorthCarolina, and extreme upstate of South Carolina.

Stay Tuned...

[NCSNOW]

One day I'm gonna pay a visit out to the sierra's. Drudge has story where they can't even find the houses out their right now due to the snow being so deep.

[kanc2001]

One day I'm gonna pay a visit out to the sierra's. Drudge has story where they can't even find the houses out their right now due to the snow being so deep.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/winter/2011-03-30-sierra-snow-california-drought_N.htm

[FoothillsNC]

I'm used to seeing this kind of map for my area, but lately its been showing up a lot in eastern NC. Obviously, the least amount of rain is also falling there, so it's not that far fetched. Next week's event per 18z

[Gastonwxman]

I'm used to seeing this kind of map for my area, but lately its been showing up a lot in eastern NC. Obviously, the least amount of rain is also falling there, so it's not that far fetched. Next week's event per 18z

Quite a cut-off all the sudden once you get east of Charlotte. Hardly any rain falls for places such as Fayetteville or Raleigh.

[POWERSTROKE]

I can use some dry weather. We haven't been able to get much work done lately. We are already several weeks behind. I am down at Myrtle Beach camping this week and it is cold and rainy. Had heavy downpours around 2pm. The stronger storms stayed south of here

[Carvers Gap]

One day I'm gonna pay a visit out to the sierra's. Drudge has story where they can't even find the houses out their right now due to the snow being so deep.

http://www.wrds.uwyo.../update-mt.html

I always check this link for flyfishing purposes in Montana. Look at the percent of normals for southwest Montana. Wow! Many years I have seen the % of normal well below 80.

Edit: Check out the snowpack data (water content) % of normal for California.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

[FoothillsNC]

Looks like the EURO has lost the cutoff for next week. It does form a weak cutoff that moves through the southwest. However it opens up into a sharp trough as it moves out of the Rockies. As this trough goes slightly negative just west of the Mississippi River the surface low forms much further north (versus the 00Z run) over Tennessee and then moves through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern lakes region while deepening. This greatly decreases the threat of widespread flooding rains the EURO had in earlier runs over northern Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas. However some flooding and severe weather remain a threat as there should be some healthy frontal convection late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning but as I said the flooding threat is of greater concern to areas that have seen excessive rainfall already this month. This all being said we are definitely not out of the woods yet as the 12Z GFS has trended south with its surface low from 00Z and brings a greater threat of excessive rainfall (4"+) to northern Georgia, the mountains of the NorthCarolina, and extreme upstate of South Carolina.

Stay Tuned...

Yep, for 5 or 6 runs in a row now, the Euro has been slowly losing the separated flow as I thought it would , and now its fully following the GFS. I'm not sure what happened but the ECMWF was the leader in the day 6+ range. For the last few months, when it matters IE, an active stormy pattern, the GFS has been leading the way even as the ECMWF held its ground many runs until finally caving in. I know someone can post the verification scores, showing it leading but overall when it matters lately I think its not as good as the GFS on storm and cutoff situations around the South. In my opinion its not nearly as good as its given credit for now, and the GFS isn't nearly as bad its been made out to be over the years, although yes its temps can be very bad, then again so can ECMWF. I'm not sure why its had so many cutoffs and amplified patterns. But usually the flow is slightly more progressive than its shown, even in the really amped up patterns, so I find it an interesting duel between the 2 models. Probably in the not so active patterns, the GFS isn't quite as good.