tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 nam still a snow event from about 30 miles south of i95 on north....vista maps show 3-6 for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 To me this week will be similar to last week and a lot of the end game will have to do with the time of day the precip falls. And yes, elevation is key. My work location had about 8-10 inches total last week, whereas my house had 2-3 inches. On 3/27/2011 at 9:18 PM, tombo82685 said: clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 On 3/27/2011 at 10:17 PM, 1234abc said: sub 992mb off the DelMarva at 126 hrs with moderate precip up to NYC. Sounds good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 On 3/27/2011 at 10:18 PM, Porsche said: Sounds good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 too bad it isn't january or this would be a decent looking h5 pattern for a snowstorm from day 4 to day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Well now, the 18z GFS going with a solution similar to what the 00z ECMWF showed. The 12z ECMWF is much weaker and more out to sea, but something tells me it will bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 On 3/27/2011 at 10:54 PM, MGorse said: Well now, the 18z GFS going with a solution similar to what the 00z ECMWF showed. The 12z ECMWF is much weaker and more out to sea, but something tells me it will bring it back. Encouraging words from you. +100!! Will be interesting to see what the 18z gefs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 On 3/27/2011 at 11:20 PM, irishbri74 said: Encouraging words from you. +100!! Will be interesting to see what the 18z gefs shows. Yeah, several of the ensembles having been showing a robust surface low so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/27/2011 at 11:23 PM, MGorse said: Yeah, several of the ensembles having been showing a robust surface low so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z NAM is mainly south with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 While the GFS still gets some precipitation up here it too has come south with this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 This run is weaker than previous runs, but not really much more south/east. The 18z was much more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Well i was specifically comparing to the 18 Z which got the precip further north then the 00z and the overall position of the low is further south as well compared to 18 Z same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 The 18z was just more progressive. It was farther NE a bit, but not really any more amplified or suppressed than 0z is right now, since at that point it's moving NE. QPF is essentially the same for all of PA on both runs. We'll see if it trends closer to the coast with time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GGEM south with this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro brings .50"+1" qpf mason Dixon line south. From Lancaster west. Philly and nw .25-.50" qpf for 1st event. Close call on who gets frozen from say Newark north?? Anyone got numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 6:18 AM, irishbri74 said: Euro brings .50"+1" qpf mason Dixon line south. From Lancaster west. Philly and nw .25-.50" qpf for 1st event. Close call on who gets frozen from say Newark north?? Anyone got numbers? Which area you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 6:19 AM, atownwxwatcher said: Which area you looking for? Kphl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 EC says this threat is not completely dead yet... though precip is light (less than 0.15" at TTN in the 6-hour intervals) and surface temps are warm (35 or higher at TTN at the 6-hour intervals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 SREF also says threat is not dead yet... with very light (less than 0.10" in the 6-hour intervals) precip and temps just above freezing along I-95, and colder NW. So verbatim, a coating to an inch seems reasonable north and west just going by the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 6:20 PM, famartin said: EC says this threat is not completely dead yet... though precip is light (less than 0.15" at TTN in the 6-hour intervals) and surface temps are warm (35 or higher at TTN at the 6-hour intervals). vista's accum precip maps must really suck. They have ttn in the .25-.5 range, with .5 contour just south of them..phl is in the .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:10 PM, tombo82685 said: vista's accum precip maps must really suck. They have ttn in the .25-.5 range, with .5 contour just south of them..phl is in the .5-.75 There is a decent accumulation, but its stretched out over 24 hours. Overnight (0z-12z) its 0.1 and 0.12 I believe (don't have it in front of me, quoting from memory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:24 PM, famartin said: There is a decent accumulation, but its stretched out over 24 hours. Overnight (0z-12z) its 0.1 and 0.12 I believe (don't have it in front of me, quoting from memory). is the euro still running a warm bias ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:31 PM, am19psu said: thanks adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:29 PM, tombo82685 said: is the euro still running a warm bias ray? Adam answered with a fascinating graphic that I didn't realize was being generated. So yes... maybe 1F per the graphic, unless I'm reading it wrong. Which mean the 6-hour temps would be 34F instead of 35F along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:33 PM, famartin said: Adam answered with a fascinating graphic that I didn't realize was being generated. So yes... maybe 1F per the graphic, unless I'm reading it wrong. Which mean the 6-hour temps would be 34F instead of 35F along I-95. if this storm does happen this looks like a suburbian elevated 200ft above mash potato snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm done starting threads. This is the 3rd threat in a row I've killed by starting the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On 3/29/2011 at 2:01 AM, Thunder Road said: I'm done starting threads. This is the 3rd threat in a row I've killed by starting the discussion thread. how is it killed? The euro brings over a half inch of qpf in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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