Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 1. No arguments please. Take 'em to the banter thread. 2. Please save images and upload them to AMWX or Photobucket instead of posting links that will change within a day. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z euro is mainly a rain event, it may start off as some snow or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z euro is mainly a rain event, it may start off as some snow or mix Atown posted the ensembles in the Mid-range thread. Shows a coast-hugger, which I presume would be all rain as well given that the op was rather far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Atown posted the ensembles in the Mid-range thread. Shows a coast-hugger, which I presume would be all rain as well given that the op was rather far east I think that was for the later event i posted..this is this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 I think that was for the later event i posted..this is this one... When is the later event? That is a darn good signal for an event a week or more away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 When is the later event? That is a darn good signal for an event a week or more away. Using the ECM means it would be the 1st to the 2nd ... However latest GFS has a whole new look to it yet again... So who knows what it will do with the later event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I would think that this (3/30) would be the most likely date of a "big" storm as the NAO flips from negative to positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 GGEM has a different outlook on this event compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 00z ECM has no QPF into the area with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The GGEm is mostly snow for Philly N&W (from hr 96 on) drops 0.30-0.40 NW ogf I-95, 0.40-0.60 S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 NAM looks like a hit @ 84 hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z NAM gives PHL 0.20" at hr 84 with a 2m temp of 32.4° and a sub-freezing column all the way up Only problem I see is that it's the 84-hour NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Look at how warm surface temps are on the NAM as the precip moves in. Granted, it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's definitely possible that some areas as far north as Allentown see a sloppy mix of rain/wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Look at how warm surface temps are on the NAM as the precip moves in. Granted, it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's definitely possible that some areas as far north as Allentown see a sloppy mix of rain/wet snow. You're 32.6 as precip begins falling. Interesting though that at hr 78 ABE is warmer than PHL (42.6 versus 40.0) EDIT: 78, not 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 GFS has the Coastal closer to the coast but still jogs it OTS at the last minute, brings in 0.25" south of the Turnpike, 0.10"-0.25" north of it. 850s are cold enough (0C line hovers just south of Philly) but the sfc frz line is pretty far north, runs along I-81 for most of the event. Two things in our favor, however, are that it looks like precip falls mostly between 5pm Wed. and 8am Thurs., and there is a High up north in the traditional spot, although it is rather weak. (~1020mb) Given that this has an Archambault signal to it, I think it may be a winter storm for many, even if the coastal plain stays rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You're 32.6 as precip begins falling. Interesting though that at hr 78 ABE is warmer than PHL (42.6 versus 40.0) EDIT: 78, not 72 thats prob because phl prob gets cloudier earlier and evap cooling earlier. GFS has the Coastal closer to the coast but still jogs it OTS at the last minute, brings in 0.25" south of the Turnpike, 0.10"-0.25" north of it. 850s are cold enough (0C line hovers just south of Philly) but the sfc frz line is pretty far north, runs along I-81 for most of the event. Two things in our favor, however, are that it looks like precip falls mostly between 5pm Wed. and 8am Thurs., and there is a High up north in the traditional spot, although it is rather weak. (~1020mb) Given that this has an Archambault signal to it, I think it may be a winter storm for many, even if the coastal plain stays rain. the gfs for immediate phl burbs is rain to start then wet bulbs down and switches to snow, with a pretty isothermal sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 NAM snowfall map through hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro is showing some snow for Philly north on Wednesday night/early Thursday. 850 line across Northern DE but surface above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z euro brings over half inch of qpf to the area with the heaviest from the pa turnpike south. 850s get up to about new castle county airport to acy, but the thicknesses scream inversion higher up. Surface temps are in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Those in the ABE region THU 06Z 31-MAR 0.9 -3.3 1012 98 98 0.25 552 542 THU 12Z 31-MAR 0.3 -2.5 1010 95 99 0.27 548 540 THU 18Z 31-MAR 1.8 -3.0 1008 87 71 0.05 545 538 Another 0.4 after this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Those in the ABE region THU 06Z 31-MAR 0.9 -3.3 1012 98 98 0.25 552 542 THU 12Z 31-MAR 0.3 -2.5 1010 95 99 0.27 548 540 THU 18Z 31-MAR 1.8 -3.0 1008 87 71 0.05 545 538 Another 0.4 after this.... MDT if you could. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This threat looks pretty solid based on today's runs. Would top off a nice winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 MDT if you could. Thanks THU 00Z 31-MAR 1.9 -2.0 1017 93 100 0.18 557 544 THU 06Z 31-MAR 0.7 -2.2 1011 98 98 0.38 552 543 THU 12Z 31-MAR 0.4 -1.7 1010 97 98 0.20 548 540 THU 18Z 31-MAR 1.7 -2.7 1008 89 35 0.05 544 538 FRI 00Z 01-APR 0.9 -4.1 1008 98 46 0.02 541 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Certainly looks to be coming together with today's runs. Based on the inversions showing up this looks frozen still but more sleety than snowy imho. I think I'll take a cold rain than a very late season sleet storm tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Elevation will really help as usual for a spring event. EC literally has 0.83" at TTN from 0Z Thursday to 0Z Friday, but temps are extremely marginal. I'd guess that the absolute most snow they could get is 4", probably more like 1-2". Sfc temps remain 34 or higher at the 6-hour intervals even at night and 850's are only 1-3 degrees C below freezing. Ratios, even when its snowing, will be atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Elevation will really help as usual for a spring event. EC literally has 0.83" at TTN from 0Z Thursday to 0Z Friday, but temps are extremely marginal. I'd guess that the absolute most snow they could get is 4", probably more like 1-2". Sfc temps remain 34 or higher at the 6-hour intervals even at night and 850's are only 1-3 degrees C below freezing. Ratios, even when its snowing, will be atrocious. my work and paul's location should do well, with 500 plus ft in elevation. Ray do you have soundings for phl? the thicknesses are right around 545 546 on the euro, screams some mid level warmth. You are right though, this is a 6 to 8-1 snow ratio kind of event. I can only imagine what the snow growth region looks like, pretty putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 my work and paul's location should do well, with 500 plus ft in elevation. Ray do you have soundings for phl? the thicknesses are right around 545 546 on the euro, screams some mid level warmth. You are right though, this is a 6 to 8-1 snow ratio kind of event. I can only imagine what the snow growth region looks like, pretty putrid. KPHL THU 00Z 31-MAR 2.3 -1.5 1018 97 99 0.09 558 544 THU 06Z 31-MAR 1.1 -0.8 1011 98 99 0.58 554 545 THU 12Z 31-MAR 1.0 -0.3 1009 96 96 0.25 550 543 THU 18Z 31-MAR 2.7 -1.0 1008 89 36 0.03 547 541 FRI 00Z 01-APR 1.7 -3.0 1008 96 35 0.03 543 537 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.7 -3.7 1007 98 28 0.01 540 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 KPHL THU 00Z 31-MAR 2.3 -1.5 1018 97 99 0.09 558 544 THU 06Z 31-MAR 1.1 -0.8 1011 98 99 0.58 554 545 THU 12Z 31-MAR 1.0 -0.3 1009 96 96 0.25 550 543 THU 18Z 31-MAR 2.7 -1.0 1008 89 36 0.03 547 541 FRI 00Z 01-APR 1.7 -3.0 1008 96 35 0.03 543 537 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.7 -3.7 1007 98 28 0.01 540 535 and big time bl warmth. This looks like a suburb with elevation mash potato feast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Keep in mind these were the 850s last event & temps were about the same..though in some locations this time even colder.. FWIW RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERALLY OFFERED PLAUSIBLESOLUTIONS BUT THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANTCONTINUITY CHANGES OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z VERSION ANDEVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z RUN SEEM TOO FAST CONSIDERING HOW WELLORGANIZED THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS CURRENTLY LOOK OVER THE NORTHPACIFIC APPROACHING AND EXITING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CONTINUITY ASSESSMENT IS THAT ONLYTHE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAD ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL DATA FROM WSRTARGETING RECON FLIGHTS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. The above could explain the change with the most recent ECM run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 my work and paul's location should do well, with 500 plus ft in elevation. Ray do you have soundings for phl? the thicknesses are right around 545 546 on the euro, screams some mid level warmth. You are right though, this is a 6 to 8-1 snow ratio kind of event. I can only imagine what the snow growth region looks like, pretty putrid. Yea man we'll do much better than the city for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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