uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 not every April has heat like we saw last year and the year before...usually it's a battle between warm and cold with a morning or two near freezing in the city...When there was a late March cold spell in past years most of them had at least a few days of winter in April...many had a cold start and a warmer second half...My guess for the monthly maximum and minimum for April 2011 in NYC is 85/31... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 not every April has heat like we saw last year and the year before...usually it's a battle between warm and cold with a morning or two near freezing in the city...When there was a late March cold spell in past years most of them had at least a few days of winter in April...many had a cold start and a warmer second half...My guess for the monthly maximum and minimum for April 2011 in NYC is 85/31... Accumulating snow in April is actually much more common than 90 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Accumulating snow in April is actually much more common than 90 degree heat. Thats an intresting one to dig into the numbers on. I only recall 90 degree readings 76, 2002, 2009, 2010. 12 gfs doesnt have any sustained warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Long range gfs is incredibly cold, we may not hit 60 untill may at this point. It's really easy to hit 60 at some point since the average daily high by 4/13 is 60 degrees at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The only good news on the 12z gfs is that the long range looks much warmer than before. Hopefully we will get lucky and dodge a bullet on Friday and then it looks like warth will build in next week (hopefully!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The only good news on the 12z gfs is that the long range looks much warmer than before. Hopefully we will get lucky and dodge a bullet on Friday and then it looks like warth will build in next week (hopefully!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JB is going with a 3-6" snowstorm for this area...It will probably be a very wet snow if it materializes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Accumulating snow in April is actually much more common than 90 degree heat. 12 years saw temperatures in the 90's while 10 years had snowstorms 4" or more... since 2000 it's three apiece for measurable snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12 years saw temperatures in the 90's while 10 years had snowstorms 4" or more... Sure Unc, but I was referring to 1" or more. That kind of shocks me because I didnt know NYC had that many 4" snowstorms-- I guess it's because of their long historical record. You could basically equate a 90 degree day in April to a 4" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sure Unc, but I was referring to 1" or more. Yea I edited my post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JB is going with a 3-6" snowstorm for this area...It will probably be a very wet snow if it materializes... Unc, do you recall what the forecasts for our area were just prior to April 97? I know prior to April 82, 96 and 03 it was for 6-12" of snow for each of them-- 4/82 verified, 4/96 verified but only for Long Island, 4/03 was high and we ended up with 4-8" region wide (6-8" here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Unc, do you recall what the forecasts for our area were just prior to April 97? I know prior to April 82, 96 and 03 it was for 6-12" of snow for each of them-- 4/82 verified, 4/96 verified but only for Long Island, 4/03 was high and we ended up with 4-8" region wide (6-8" here.) I don't remember the forecast...I just moved from Brooklyn and was settling in my new house when the basement flooded from ground water during the storm...We got maybe 2" of wet snow and everything in my basement was ruined... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 for what its worth the 18z gfs continues to imply a warmer pattern into to the second week of April with trough digging down in the west and heights building into the east. Perhaps we should start a thread regarding any pattern change/warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 NYC matched the analog years with four lows in the 20's for March 24-31. Here's the April temperature departure list for the analog years with the high temperature for the month: 1915 +1.9... 92 1919 -2.5... 73 1926 -3.9... 82 1937 -2.9... 72 1947 -2.0.. 79 1955 +1.0.. 84 1959 +0.9... 83 1966 -2.8... 73 1972 -2.4.. .86 1975 -4.6....74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The GFS has at least two major storm threats on its 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Many of the mets at Accuweather are predicting the cold than normal temps will stay through April. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/47602/sick-of-the-cold-we-have-good.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 New GFS....nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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