bluewave Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 NYC has had two daily low temperature readings in the 20's from March 25th on so far this month. The model forecasts indicate that we will see more lows in the 20's before the month is over. It's not easy to find years when NYC recorded 3 or more daily lows in the 20's between March 25-31. I was able to find only ten years when this occurred since 1900. When you put those ten years into a composite for Arpril ,there is a below normal temperature signal for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 What is the link, Chris, for that website where you create your own analog composite? I misplaced the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 What is the link, Chris, for that website where you create your own analog composite? I misplaced the link. Chris,I use ESRL to create the maps and USU for the daily weather data. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Thanks for the links. April will be a cool one, for sure. 1975 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 April of 1975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Thanks for the links. April will be a cool one, for sure. 1975 maybe. Personally, I like the 1915 analog But the one I would really like is couple December and January from this winter with February and March from 1967. A weak la nina would have done it. My lows the last three mornings have been 30.9, 29.4 and 26.7 Tonight could be the coldest of them all. Too bad no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Personally I like the 1915 analog But the one I would really like is couple December and January from this winter with February and March from 1967. A weak la nina would have done it. that's way too hard to do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 it does look like April will be below normal to start the month but how long will it last?...The La Nina winters of the 1970's had a taste of winter in April... 1971...wet Snow on 4/6-7... 1972...Record cold 4/8 with light snow...record heat 4/19 1974...Record cold 4/10 with light snow...record heat 4/29 1975...Near record cold 4/4-5 with flurries 4/8.... 1976...Record cold 4/12 with flurries...heat wave a week later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 it does look like April will be below normal to start the month but how long will it last?...The La Nina winters of the 1970's had a taste of winter in April... 1971...wet Snow on 4/6-7... 1972...Record cold 4/8 with light snow...record heat 4/19 1974...Record cold 4/10 with light snow...record heat 4/29 1975...Near record cold 4/4-5 with flurries 4/8.... 1976...Record cold 4/12 with flurries...heat wave a week later... Not a nina but rfom April 4 - april 19 in 2007 we saw below to much below normal which was followed by a surge of warmth the following week after the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 April average temperature and enso state...I added weak negatives...You can filter them out if you choose... Nina-Nino.....Nina-Nina.....Nina-neutral...1st nina-nina...2ndnina-nina...3rdnina-nino 1951...53.0........1950...48.2........1989...52.2........1955...53.5................1956...48.2............1957...53.2 1957...53.2........1955...53.5........2001...54.2........1974...55.2................1975...47.9............1976...55.0 1963...53.7........1956...48.2........ave......53.2........1999...53.5................2000...51.0............ave......54.1 1968...55.0........1962...53.3.....................................ave.....54.1................ave.......49.0 1972...50.1........1967...49.6........ 1976...55.0........1974...55.2........ 1986...54.5........1975...47.9........ 1997...51.7........1985...55.5........ 2006...55.7........1996...52.2........ 2009...54.5........1999...53.5........ .............................2000...51.0........ .............................2008...54.9........ ave......53.6........ave.......51.9........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 April may end up below normal, but the high latitude blocking is collapsing and it's doing so fast. After the heather signal and the PNA spike the mid level ridge will collapse east towards the Central and Eastern CONUS. This first few days of April event is all but certainly our last chance of snow along the coast and away from the much higher elevations this season. The GEFS actually correlate well with the ridge collapsing east, showing the above average heights in response to the collapsing block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 April may end up below normal, but the high latitude blocking is collapsing and it's doing so fast. After the heather signal and the PNA spike the mid level ridge will collapse east towards the Central and Eastern CONUS. This first few days of April event is all but certainly our last chance of snow along the coast and away from the much higher elevations this season. The GEFS actually correlate well with the ridge collapsing east, showing the above average heights in response to the collapsing block. this cold can't last forever and we are due for a warm up...This is a first year nina April...Most of them were above normal...I'm leaning close to average and wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS seems to be showing large run to run changes at the end of each cycle. If the 06z run is correct with the overall pattern, we will see a return to a big ridge out west and well below temps in the east. If 00z is correct we would be in a SW flow with moderating temps. Just something to kick around. I don't think were definitly done with the cold after this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I guess we can't ask for much more out of GFS fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I guess we can't ask for much more out of GFS fantasy land. The GFS OP has been fairly insistent on a -EPO pattern, which the GEFS that Earthlight posted also show, around April 5-10. That may mean some cold air is tapped from NW Canada/AK with the Greenland block going on vacation, so we'd probably see a SW flow pattern with moderating temps in the Mid-Atlantic and some snow threats farther north in NNE on the other side of the boundary. Doesn't look like a torch but I expect the cold shot to dissipate rapidly after April 2nd, perhaps returning briefly between April 5-10, and then moving towards warmer than normal for the second half of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 JB's analog from 1950 was cold with a very plus ao the first week...1967 was another cold plus ao April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Interesting statistic for Central Park that shows how unusual this persistent late season cold airmass is. Today marks the 6th consecutive day that the mean temperature was 37F or lower. This is the first time since 1940 that such a streak of at least 6 days occurred after Mar 20. Here are all such streaks since 1900: 1940: Mar 22-27 1923: Mar 28 - Apr 2 1919: Mar 28 - Apr 2 1912: Mar 21-26 Note that 3 of these (1912, 1919, 1923) were during solar cycles that were quite weak, similar to the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Long range gfs is incredibly cold, we may not hit 60 untill may at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Long range gfs is incredibly cold, we may not hit 60 untill may at this point. Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS show a -EPO block developing in the long range; with that ridge over AK/Yukon, the East stays below normal. 12z ECM, Day 9: 18z GFS, Day 9: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The ensembles are in good agreement on a brief warmup early next week. However, the sharp stratospheric warming forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS beginning next weekend suggests that polar air is likely to make a comeback beyond Apr 5. ECMWF: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The ensembles are in good agreement on a brief warmup early next week. However, the sharp stratospheric warming forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS beginning next weekend suggests that polar air is likely to make a comeback beyond Apr 5. When do you think it will go away for good and never come back untill next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 When do you think it will go away for good and never come back untill next winter? We're not having a spring and summer this year. Cold and wet the whole way through to next fall and then the snow threats start again. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 When do you think it will go away for good and never come back untill next winter? La Nina pattern? probably not until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS/Euro, as others have indicated, show a prolonged colder pattern into the east, We'll see how this trends or if a reversal can materialize towards the second week of april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Interesting statistic for Central Park that shows how unusual this persistent late season cold airmass is. Today marks the 6th consecutive day that the mean temperature was 37F or lower. This is the first time since 1940 that such a streak of at least 6 days occurred after Mar 20. Here are all such streaks since 1900: 1940: Mar 22-27 1923: Mar 28 - Apr 2 1919: Mar 28 - Apr 2 1912: Mar 21-26 Note that 3 of these (1912, 1919, 1923) were during solar cycles that were quite weak, similar to the current one. 1940 had another bout of winter 4/12-15 with 2" of snow and temperatures as low as 26... 1923 had freezing temperatures on 4/14 with a few snow flakes... 1919 had a late April cold spell on 4/25-26 with snow flurries... 1912 had more cold on 4/3-4 and snow flurries on the 8th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The recent string of nighttime lows in the 20s at Central Park in late March is quite impressive. It was aided by the fact that WNW-NW winds remained brisk every night. If the winds had diminished, temperatures would have had much more trouble dropping in NYC. Monday marked the 5th straight day with a low at or below 30F in Central Park. This is the latest such streak of at least 5 days since Mar 26 - 30, 1937. The only other streaks of at least 5 days since 1900 that were as late or later were Mar 28 - Apr 2, 1919 and Mar 28 - Apr 2, 1923. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 The recent string of nighttime lows in the 20s at Central Park in late March is quite impressive. It was aided by the fact that WNW-NW winds remained brisk every night. If the winds had diminished, temperatures would have had much more trouble dropping in NYC. Monday marked the 5th straight day with a low at or below 30F in Central Park. This is the latest such streak of at least 5 days since Mar 26 - 30, 1937. The only other streaks of at least 5 days since 1900 that were as late or later were Mar 28 - Apr 2, 1919 and Mar 28 - Apr 2, 1923. It's a big turnaround from the 77degree high for NYC on the 18th. 18 77 51 64 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 00z guidance a bit more split with euro building trough into the west with heights risingi in the east by the second week of April. I still favor a moderation through the 10th followed by more sustainable warmth after mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 baby steps, at least we have now have some hope alive for spring weather lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 baby steps, at least we have now have some hope alive for spring weather lovers We still have atleast another week of below to much below normal weather to get through and the longer ranger signal is mixed. I can see a gradual moderation towards normal between april 8 - 12th, that includes a bit of back and forth cool/warml, before a more sustainable wamer pattern could develop on/around April 15. The pattern could be similar to 2007 week earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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