Future Timeline

[skierinvermont]

Look at the LIA, RWP, DACP, MWP, the Holocene in its entirety, we've seen 1-3C spikes/dips...TSI variations cannot account for that. Nothing else can...........except the Geomagnetic sun.

So, what are we left with? Magnetism & the relationship between 10/BE Conc & the weakening MagF.

Actually, according to scientists (instead of BethesdaWx) TSI+volcanism can account for historic variation.

Please continue with your regularly scheduled programming.

[BethesdaWX]

Actually, according to scientists (instead of BethesdaWx) TSI+volcanism can account for historic variation.

Please continue with your regularly scheduled programming.

This is Simply Incorrect, and No evidence to Boot regardless. No scientists think this.

Volcanism: Short term effects, rebounds within a few years. Still not enough to cause 1-3C variations over many centuries.

TSI: By todays modeling ( ), TSI cannot account for even 10% of todays warming.

Really dude? Come on now, you're saying 90% of past variations were Volcanism?

[tacoman25]

No I haven't posted graphs of their correlation... CO2 and temperature don't really "correlate" in a statistical sense.. they both show upwards trends but that doesn't make for a powerful statistical correlation. Half the variables in the world show upwards trends. Half show downwards trends. It's not statistically powerful.

If CO2 and temperature showed long term opposite trends, that would disprove AGW. But both of them showing upwards trends is very poor corroborating evidence. The "correlation" between CO2 and temperature is no more powerful than the correlation between piracy and temperature.

Real Climate would disagree. They have posted a number of articles about the correlation between CO2 and temperature, and which leads the other.

Plus, the timing/magnitude of CO2 increases along with timing/magnitude of temperature increase represents a stronger correlation than you are giving it credit.

[tacoman25]

TSI does have a much more statistically powerful correlation than Geo-AA. When TSI goes up temperature goes up, when TSI goes down temperature goes down. This is a much more "powerful" (IE much lower probability of false positive) test than two variables which both show general upwards trends. No such "powerful" correlation exists for geo-AA (or for CO2). The chance of a false positive in the geo-aa : temp or CO2 : temp correlations is nearly 50%. The chance of a false positive for the TSI : temperature correlation is nearly 1%.

You did not address my point that you are comparing a short term variable with a longterm one.

[tacoman25]

It's not geo-AA it's piracy.. 5 years of high piracy is not enough to cool the climate. We need at least 50 years of high piracy to cool the climate back down.

Piracy has nothing to do with the sun, which we know is the primary energy source for earth. Geo-AA does. Not a valid comparison at all.

[skierinvermont]

Real Climate would disagree. They have posted a number of articles about the correlation between CO2 and temperature, and which leads the other.

Plus, the timing/magnitude of CO2 increases along with timing/magnitude of temperature increase represents a stronger correlation than you are giving it credit.

I was talking about over the last century or two... I almost posted a clarification to say that on longer timespans CO2 and temperature do show a strong correlation with many ups and downs.

Over the last century both exhibit a general upwards trend.. which is not a very meaningful correlation. There are literally millions of other variables which exhibit similar general upwards trends.

[skierinvermont]

Piracy has nothing to do with the sun, which we know is the primary energy source for earth. Geo-AA does. Not a valid comparison at all.

Geo-aa is not a primary energy source.. it is an insignificant amount of energy. The sun overall.. yes.. but geo-aa is many orders of magnitude smaller. I have no reason to believe geo-aa is any more relevant to the earth's energy budget than piracy is. In fact, piracy may be more relevant because pirate's black flags have low albedo, altering the earth's energy budget.

[tacoman25]

I was talking about over the last century or two... I almost posted a clarification to say that on longer timespans CO2 and temperature do show a strong correlation with many ups and downs.

Over the last century both exhibit a general upwards trend.. which is not a very meaningful correlation. There are literally millions of other variables which exhibit similar general upwards trends.

Ok, fine and dandy. Your original statement that there is "no correlation" between the AA index and temperatures is still not true. It may not be as statistically strong as TSI over the short term, but that doesn't mean there is no correlation.

[skierinvermont]

This is Simply Incorrect, and No evidence to Boot regardless. No scientists think this.

Volcanism: Short term effects, rebounds within a few years. Still not enough to cause 1-3C variations over many centuries.

TSI: By todays modeling ( ), TSI cannot account for even 10% of todays warming.

Really dude? Come on now, you're saying 90% of past variations were Volcanism?

No, sorry, you are incorrect. There have been periods of higher and lower volcanism which maintain higher or lower levels of aerosols in the atmosphere. IPCC models accurately simulate the last 1000 years of climate based on TSI and volcanism.

[skierinvermont]

Ok, fine and dandy. Your original statement that there is "no correlation" between the AA index and temperatures is still not true. It may not be as statistically strong as TSI over the short term, but that doesn't mean there is no correlation.

There isn't a statistically significant one... they both exhibit general upwards trends... but so do millions of other trends like the number of cars on the road, global population, acres of farmland, money supply, the price of beets, the price of turnips... etc. etc. etc.

[tacoman25]

Geo-aa is not a primary energy source.. it is an insignificant amount of energy. The sun overall.. yes.. but geo-aa is many orders of magnitude smaller. I have no reason to believe geo-aa is any more relevant to the earth's energy budget than piracy is. In fact, piracy may be more relevant because pirate's black flags have low albedo, altering the earth's energy budget.

The Geo-AA index is one reflection of the energy output of the sun. How exactly it might be related to climate, I don't know...there are a lot of things we don't understand about the sun's relationship to the earth and climate.

The piracy thing is just tired. It wouldn't be so bad, but you feel the need to repeat it over and over, when it's really not that clever.

[skierinvermont]

The Geo-AA index is one reflection of the energy output of the sun. How exactly it might be related to climate, I don't know...there are a lot of things we don't understand about the sun's relationship to the earth and climate.

The piracy thing is just tired. It wouldn't be so bad, but you feel the need to repeat it over and over, when it's really not that clever.

I'm not trying to be clever, I am just making an analogy.

Geo-AA isn't a reflection of the energy output of the sun. It is a measure of a particular (and completely insignificant) class of energy which is modulated both by solar output and the earth's magnetic field.

TSI is a reflection of the energy output of the sun.

[tacoman25]

There isn't a statistically significant one... they both exhibit general upwards trends... but so do millions of other trends like the number of cars on the road, global population, acres of farmland, money supply, the price of beets, the price of turnips... etc. etc. etc.

Funny, all of these actually are related to AGW, though not the direct physical causes themselves.

Anyway, now you say it isn't statistically significant. Before you said "no correlation".

[skierinvermont]

Funny, all of these actually are related to AGW.

Anyway, now you say it isn't statistically significant. Before you said "no correlation".

Same thing. All variables exhibit statistically insignficant correlations. We typically refer to such cases as not having a correlation.

[tacoman25]

I'm not trying to be clever, I am just making an analogy.

Geo-AA isn't a reflection of the energy output of the sun. It is a measure of a particular (and completely insignificant) class of energy which is modulated both by solar output and the earth's magnetic field.

TSI is a reflection of the energy output of the sun.

And we don't know how exactly it affects the earth's climate. There is certainly some interesting evidence that it affects atmospheric blocking patterns (as evidenced in the AO/NAO).

[tacoman25]

Same thing. All variables exhibit statistically insignficant correlations. We typically refer to such cases as not having a correlation.

Ok then, I'll be sure to note for future reference that CO2 and temperature have no correlation, according to your definition.

[skierinvermont]

Ok then, I'll be sure to note for future reference that CO2 and temperature have no correlation, according to your definition.

over the last century I would certainly agree.

[BethesdaWX]

.

Hockeystick Knockoff? Are We really coming to this??? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Holy f**king sh*t.

We have Volstok, Greenland, and Non-Tree Ring Proxy data showing something else.

Greenland ice Core

Volstok

PEER REVIEWED STUDY

^^^

http://www.co2scienc...l1_mobergnh.php

[skierinvermont]

Your first graph is over the entire holocene.. which is completely unrelated to the IPCC graph of the last 1000 years.

The second graph is Moberg et al... which ironically is used to CREATE the graph I posted

The third one is for latitudes 30-90N which is of course not even close to a global reconstruction. Apples to oranges.

[BethesdaWX]

Your first graph is over the entire holocene.. which is completely unrelated to the IPCC graph of the last 1000 years.

The second graph is Moberg et al... which ironically is used to CREATE the graph I posted

The third one is for latitudes 30-90N which is of course not even close to a global reconstruction. Apples to oranges.

???

Again..........You're posting the Hockeystick............. Dude, you're posting a refuted graph...

Excuse me while I laugh, I'm still stunned....you're posting the hockeystick.

Its basic knowledge that there was a LIA, it was Picked Up by BOTH antarctic and Arctic Ice Cores.

So was the MWP

[BethesdaWX]

Skier:

Hockeystick = refuted.

-Models have not predicted the past accurately, they have shown a Hockeystick everytime There is no hockeystick, there never was one. Thus, we know if the models cannot accurately predict the Past, then the AGW theory is Bunk, since our current forxing expectations don't match.

-In your Hockeystick Graph, Geo-AA, MagF decrease/IMF, are NOT counted as forcings, because we do not know of a mechanism for them.......yet.

-Your Hockeystick has been refuted, long ago found to be exagerrated with Poor Proxy Choice. Again....the graph is WRONG

- It is a Basic Fact that there was a LIA....MWP....DACP...RWP....ANd spikes 2-3C throughout the Holocene.

- Solar has correlated to temperature better than CO2...We've bee flatlining for over a decade now, as Geo-AA did....but its multi-century, and will take awhile.

Dude, TSI and temperatures diverged in the 1970's, and TSI only fluctuates <1% through each solar cycle. TSI, according to the IPCC, has contributed 5% to todays warming.

The AA-Index, with a 7-10 year lag in high IMF fluctuations, qualitatively, correlates perfectly when PDO/AMO are added. So, the peak in 2004, at earliest, could manifest sometime this year, or could show up in 2015.

Just because we don't know of a mechanism doesn't mean there is none.

1) It's always taken Centuries, 200yrs+ to go from Solar warm to Solar Cold (MWP/LIA, RWP/DACP)......they (1992 & 2003) are both Incredibly High Maxes. AA index is cumulative...ok? Even a 30 year drop may only impose 0.3C cooling. We may have warmed 0.8C since 1850, but we've warmed possibly 1.5C+ since 1700, the bottom of the LIA. Again, these are timespans over 300 years! 5 years, 50 years, will barely even dent the trend!

2) The Lag has been found between 7-11 yrs qualitatively....during high IMF (interplanetary magnetic Field flips). So, for example, 2004 would could show up between 2011-2015. So really we should see nothing yet.

The Last peak was in 1992, which could show up anywhere from 1999-2003, if we were to level off (we did)

Just because we do not know of a mechanism doesn't mean there is none. Look at our Solar Formulas applied to models,stating that solar cannot cause the warming we've seen...............yet it has happened before...and the one and only correlation we find in all aspects is with the MAGNETISM.

There is something else going on irrelevant to TSI/Irradiance, it happened in the LIA, in the DACP, the RWP, MWP, etc. We've seen spikes of 2-3C throughout the holocene in Volstok and Greenland Ice cores...so yes its happened before.

We just don't know how. Look at how the NAO/AO correlate to the Magnetic Index...it's fantastic and compelling, it really is.

[tacoman25]

over the last century I would certainly agree.

Which is when AGW would be in effect. So no correlation due to humans then.

[skierinvermont]

???

Again..........You're posting the Hockeystick............. Dude, you're posting a refuted graph...

Excuse me while I laugh, I'm still stunned....you're posting the hockeystick.

Its basic knowledge that there was a LIA, it was Picked Up by BOTH antarctic and Arctic Ice Cores.

So was the MWP

No I'm not posting the hockeystick. The graph I posted was an IPCC 2007 graph based partially off of THE SAME GRAPH YOU POSTED (namely Moberg et al. 2005). Irony at its best.

[BethesdaWX]

No I'm not posting the hockeystick. The graph I posted was an IPCC 2007 graph based partially off of THE SAME GRAPH YOU POSTED (namely Moberg et al. 2005). Irony at its best.

You support the Hockeystick, just admit it The IPCC graph is a Hockeystick. We now know that the past 1000 years looked nothing like a hockeystick.

Anyhow, lets get back on topic regarding your blatant misconceptions regarding Geo-AA index and Piracy

You're being owned by everyone

.

[skierinvermont]

You support the Hockeystick, just admit it The IPCC graph is a Hockeystick. We now know that the past 1000 years looked nothing like a hockeystick.

Anyhow, lets get back on topic regarding your blatant misconceptions regarding Geo-AA index and Piracy

You're being owned by everyone

.

I don't think of this as a competition. And even if it were I am not being "owned." Your posts are full of flawed arguments and self contradictions.

The graph I posted is not a hockey stick. It is based upon the same graph you posted. So you support Moberg et al. 2005 (you posted it) but not the IPCC graph based on Moberg et al. 2005? This is a blatant contradiction. You are trying to deflect this blatant contradiction by claiming to have "owned" me.

[WeatherRusty]

The Geo-AA index is one reflection of the energy output of the sun. How exactly it might be related to climate, I don't know...there are a lot of things we don't understand about the sun's relationship to the earth and climate.

The piracy thing is just tired. It wouldn't be so bad, but you feel the need to repeat it over and over, when it's really not that clever.

Maybe we should go back to fairies? This constant throwing out of any plausible, yet unsubstantiated possibility for a warming mechanism just to avoid the obvious, scientifically documented reality that CO2 and other long lived greenhouse gases are warming the planet, is nothing more than a measured diversion meant to confuse the readers of this and every other such forum on the internet. Disingenuous bastards.

[BethesdaWX]

I don't think of this as a competition. And even if it were I am not being "owned." Your posts are full of flawed arguments and self contradictions.

The graph I posted is not a hockey stick. It is based upon the same graph you posted. So you support Moberg et al. 2005 (you posted it) but not the IPCC graph based on Moberg et al. 2005? This is a blatant contradiction. You are trying to deflect this blatant contradiction by claiming to have "owned" me.

huh?

You're the one to talk about "flawed arguments" Mr. Pirate.

These are rebuttals to all your arguments.

1) Models have not accurately predicted temps for the past.....because the models would show a Hockeystick every time! We now know, based on Ice Core Data, and more reliable proxies...that the past 1000yrs looked nothing like a hockeystick.

2) TSI, according to the IPCC, can only account for about 5% our current warming, despite that fact that the modern Max was higher than the Medieval max. TSI varies <1% thru each 11yr Cycle. It has never correlated long term.

3) Volcanism cannot account for a century of LIA temps 1-2C Colder than the MWP, nor the 2-3C spikes dips throughout the holocene. So you're essentially arguing that 95% of the spikes/dips in the Holocene were Volcanism caused.

4) We know that The Holocene featured Jumps/Variations of 1-3C constantly...only attributable to the Sun. Again, solar influence affected temps on the order of several centigrade.

5) Geomag AA index was Not Counted as a Forcing in the IPCC report, nor was GCR..LLCC was counted as a positive feedback....one of this is true.

6) To start, we know the past 1000yrs had a LIA, and a MWP. There was never a hockeystick shape to temps, period.

[skierinvermont]

IPCC models do not forecast a hockeystick .. they accurately forecast reconstructions such as the one YOU POSTED (Moberg et al. 2005). Based on TSI AND volcanism.

The fact that the modern max is similar to the medieval max doesn't mean that the modern max is responsible for our current warming. Much of the MWP was not caused by the medieval max, it was caused by extended low volcanic activity in combination with the high TSI.

[BethesdaWX]

IPCC models do not forecast a hockeystick .. they accurately forecast reconstructions such as the one YOU POSTED (Moberg et al. 2005). Based on TSI AND volcanism.

The fact that the modern max is similar to the medieval max doesn't mean that the modern max is responsible for our current warming. Much of the MWP was not caused by the medieval max, it was caused by extended low volcanic activity in combination with the high TSI.

Post peer reviewed evidence, and the models.

[skierinvermont]

I already did .. the IPCC models predict a MWP up to .8C warmer than the LIA based on TSI AND volcanism. This is consistent with Moberg et al. 2005 (the graph YOU posted reconstructing the last 1k years).