nzucker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 IRI Models: Current SSTA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Atmosphere and SSTs are definitely Niña, though weakening, but subsurface has been gradually turning more Niño like. Models are showing a coherent MJO wave moving from phase 4 to phase 6/7... with strong westerlies building W of the dateline... if they can make it and spread E as a WWB/KW, bets are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 El Nino for the win, Nate. Combined with the -NAO phase and -EPO and as well other factors... Like Chuck said, he might break out the 09-10 analog IF ALL goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 El Nino for the win, Nate. Combined with the -NAO phase and -EPO and as well other factors... Like Chuck said, he might break out the 09-10 analog IF ALL goes well. Highly doubtul we see anything more than the Weak El Nino in my mind. When have we gone from Strong Nino, to Strong Nina, then to Strong (even Moderate) Nino again? Never? The atmosphere looks like it wants to "take a chill pill", but who am I to even attempt a prediction? I'm not worthy. -NAO phases tend to coincide with the +AMO/-PDO/-IO? That would support the -NAO next winter, espeically since the EB/+QBO is likely to redevelop, and we had that in 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Where is Chuck's El Nino forecast for this summer??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 10 years since we had a nice, solid Neutral ENSO season. That'll be my uneducated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 10 years since we had a nice, solid Neutral ENSO season. That'll be my uneducated guess. Last neutral season coming out of a La Nina was 2001-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Would Warm Neutral/Cold Neutral Make any difference for the Mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Last neutral season coming out of a La Nina was 2001-02. That would make the board happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just posted my preliminary 2011 ENSO forecast on the 28storms long-range weather blog: http://28storms.com/longrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Just posted my preliminary 2011 ENSO forecast on the 28storms long-range weather blog: http://28storms.com/longrange Very nice write up, graphics, and reasoning behind your theories. Excellent work, and wouldn't that 76 analog be cool for you easterners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Where is Chuck's El Nino forecast for this summer??? Last summer when he said 3.4 would be positive by September, he meant this coming September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Very nice write up, graphics, and reasoning behind your theories. Excellent work, and wouldn't that 76 analog be cool for you easterners. Thanks! An El Niño would certainly make next winter more interesting. It's not what I want for this year's hurricane season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I've said it before, a weak Nino doesn't seem that bad, IMHO, for Allantic hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 WWB is having trouble busting through the trades: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 WWB is having trouble busting through the trades: Could the MJO give it the final hmph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Could the MJO give it the final hmph? I have a feeling the westerlies will get farther east than the GFS expects, probably due to the westerly wind event. However, if you take out the ENSO component, I don't think there will be much a burst compared to climatology. This could all change if the western and southern Pacific TCs stay longer than expected, but given the recent easterly wind surge, hard to imagine any significant warming anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 There seems to be a new version of the CFS which unlike the old version of the CFS is predicting that after going neutral-positive this summer we slide back into Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 There seems to be a new version of the CFS which unlike the old version of the CFS is predicting that after going neutral-positive this summer we slide back into Nina. I think this is the graph you refer to: I wouldn't be surprised if we slide back into La Nina given the tendency for these events to be multi-year after the strong El Nino to strong La Nina progression. It also seems that the surface is really lagging in warming despite the presence of milder waters in the subsurface, and that WWB seems to be hung up around the Indonesian region while easterly winds continue to prevail in the ENSO area. Could be an interesting winter next year for the East with the weak Nina signaling more periods of +PNA and a potential for a continuation of the -NAO decadal cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I can't find any years with a strong negative that became positive during the Summer but faded to negative by the next winter... 2007-08 to 2008-09...and 1966-67 to 1967-68 and 1995-96 to 1996-97 had negatives that became neutral ( 0.0 ) before dropping back below negative... 2000-01 to 2001-02 is the only year that rose from a negative to a positive +0.2 before dropping back slightly negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 I can't find any years with a strong negative that became positive during the Summer but faded to negative by the next winter... 2007-08 to 2008-09...and 1966-67 to 1967-68 and 1995-96 to 1996-97 had negatives that became neutral ( 0.0 ) before dropping back below negative... 2000-01 to 2001-02 is the only year that rose from a negative to a positive +0.2 before dropping back slightly negative... I think that in reality, we're going to stay in weak Niña conditions for the spring/summer and then see the Niña restrengthen slightly by winter, maybe high-end weak or low-end moderate. ENSO models are notoriously unreliable at this point, and many of the IRI plumes maintain a weak cold ENSO through the summer. The WWB is having trouble getting past Indonesia, SOI is back to +70, and the La Niña surface waters are well connected to the strong -PDO with the cold pool off Baja California and some colder than normal areas in the Humboldt/Antarctic Current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I think we come up to neutral for summer. Beyond that, I'm not sure. I personally am not taking el niño off the table, though would not rate it as most likely at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 FWIW, Joe D'Aleo on the subject. http://www.weatherbell.com/jd/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I think we come up to neutral for summer. Beyond that, I'm not sure. I personally am not taking el niño off the table, though would not rate it as most likely at this time. Statistically, it's definitely least likely following a moderate/strong Nina, especially a first year one. The fact we are in a -PDO phase weighs further against a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Statistically, it's definitely least likely following a moderate/strong Nina, especially a first year one. The fact we are in a -PDO phase weighs further against a Nino. Yeah, with about 75% certainty, one can expect we will fall back into a Nina without ever going positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Yeah, with about 75% certainty, one can expect we will fall back into a Nina without ever going positive. Nothing much new with ENSO, CPC still has Region 3.4 at -0.8C in its 4/4 report. CPC says they expect neutral conditions by June. The Kelvin Wave or subsurface warmth from Indonesia seems to be breaking up a bit...one bubble appears to be surfacing in Region 2 but it's not increasing in strength. Crazy streak of +SOI indicating La Niña is still the atmospheric driver (date, Tahiti SLP, Darwin SLP, daily SOI, 30-day SOI, 90-day SOI): 27 Mar 2011 1013.64 1006.15 16.18 17.60 19.33 28 Mar 2011 1014.06 1005.65 20.58 17.13 19.08 29 Mar 2011 1014.73 1005.00 26.90 16.72 19.00 30 Mar 2011 1014.49 1004.40 28.62 16.75 19.02 31 Mar 2011 1015.58 1003.45 38.39 17.34 19.27 1 Apr 2011 1015.08 1002.35 74.55 19.23 20.06 2 Apr 2011 1013.96 1002.95 62.15 20.51 20.71 3 Apr 2011 1014.63 1006.50 41.39 21.25 21.00 4 Apr 2011 1016.27 1008.20 40.95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 There was a record +75 SOI recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 The SOI isn't really a good metric when there is a monsoon low sitting over Darwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Yeah, with about 75% certainty, one can expect we will fall back into a Nina without ever going positive. Yeah just to throw out some stats which most people are already pretty familiar with: Since 1950 there are 5 cases of a moderate Nino or stronger transitioning to a moderate Nina or stronger (63-65, 72-74, 87-89, 97-99, 06-08). In only 1 of these cases was the Nina followed by a Nino event. (63-65 was followed by the 65-66 Nino). In one case the subsequent winter was neutral (the 88-89 winter following 87-89). In the remaining three, the following winter was a Nina (two strongs, 72-74 and 97-99, and one weak, 06-08). Statistically that gives us 20% Nino, 20% Neutral and 60% Nina. If we broaden to include weak nino (or stronger) to weak nina (or stronger) transitions our sample size grows from 5 to 10 (63-65, 65-67, 69-71, 72-74, 82-84, 87-89, 94-96, 97-99, 04-06, 06-08). In only two cases was the Nina followed by a Nino event (63-65, 04-06). In two cases the Nina was followed by a neutral winter (87-89, 94-96*). *missed weak Nina by .1C. In 6 cases the Nina was followed by another Nina winter (65-67, 69-71, 72-74, 82-84, 97-99, 06-08). 3 weaks, 2 mods, 1 strong. This again gives us 20% Nino, 20% Neutral, 60% Nina. In both of the Nino cases the Nina had already collapsed at this point (-.4 in 1965 and -.6 in 2006 for JFM compared to our -1.2). I thus conclude a Nino for next winter would be even more unlikely and unprecedented since 1950 given our current ONI. No moderate+ Nino has ever developed with the preceding JFM ONI below -.9C. Only one weak Nino has developed with a preceding JFM below -.9C. We could transition to neutral however given 1989 was still -1.5C in JFM but was neutral by winter. From a statistical/climatological perspective I would set the odds at 5%/25%/70% for Nino-Neutral-Nina respectively. Given the propensity of ENSO following strong/mod Ninas to be more positive (see 08-09, 99-00, 88-89, 73-74, 84-85, 71-72, 55-56 the glaring exceptions being 98-99 and 54-55) I would lean closer to the Neutral category, probably around -.5C as a best guess. In other words it's very rare to get back to back mod+ Ninas. Keep in mind this is all based purely on statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.