jconsor Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 With an airmass that's very cold for this time of year (though not a true arctic airmass like Apr 1982), and decent N-NW winds to advect in the cold, there is a decent shot at record lows in many urban locations around the NYC area, esp. in the Sat-Mon timeframe. Sun night (Mar 28) looks like the coldest one in urban areas, as cloud cover will hold down temps Sun afternoon and a renewed shot of CAA on NNW winds will arrive at night. Sat night has the potential to be the coldest night in suburban and rural areas as winds are forecast to diminish to around 5 mph after midnight. There is some potential for another cold night in suburban/rural areas next Tue night as the low over the Canadian Maritimes moves further away and winds diminish, but clouds could interfere with that. Here are record lows through the end of March. A * indicates there is at least some potential to tie or break the record. Note: I didn't post the records for Central Park, because their record goes back to the 1870s and EWR 3/26 - 19 (1960) 3/27 - 23 (2001)* 3/28 - 19 (1982) 3/29 - 23 (1959)* 3/30 - 22 (1970) 3/31 - 22 (1964) LGA 3/26 - 20 (1960) 3/27 - 24 (1975)* 3/28 - 23 (1982) 3/29 - 25 (1959)* 3/30 - 23 (1970) 3/31 - 24 (1964) JFK 3/26 - 20 (1960) 3/27 - 24 (2001)* 3/28 - 22 (1982) 3/29 - 26 (1959)* 3/30 - 22 (1970) 3/31 - 21 (1964) BDR 3/26 - 15 (1960) 3/27 - 20 (2001)* 3/28 - 17 (1966) 3/29 - 19 (1966) 3/30 - 16 (1970) 3/31 - 21 (1964) HVN 3/26 - 15 (1960) 3/27 - 23 (1975)* 3/28 - 19 (1982)* 3/29 - 19 (1974) 3/30 - 19 (1970) 3/31 - 24 (1964)* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It looks like lows will be back in the upper 20s by the 29th but I do think the 27th has a good chance of coming close. Forecasted lows as of now are 23-24 With an airmass that's very cold for this time of year (though not a true arctic airmass like Apr 1982), and decent N-NW winds to advect in the cold, there is a decent shot at record lows in many urban locations around the NYC area, esp. in the Sat-Mon timeframe. Sun night (Mar 28) looks like the coldest one in urban areas, as cloud cover will hold down temps Sun afternoon and a renewed shot of CAA on NNW winds will arrive at night. Sat night has the potential to be the coldest night in suburban and rural areas as winds are forecast to diminish to around 5 mph after midnight. There is some potential for another cold night in suburban/rural areas next Tue night as the low over the Canadian Maritimes moves further away and winds diminish, but clouds could interfere with that. Here are record lows through the end of March. A * indicates there is at least some potential to tie or break the record. Note: I didn't post the records for Central Park, because their record goes back to the 1870s and EWR 3/26 - 19 (1960) 3/27 - 23 (2001)* 3/28 - 19 (1982) 3/29 - 23 (1959)* 3/30 - 22 (1970) 3/31 - 22 (1964) LGA 3/26 - 20 (1960) 3/27 - 24 (1975)* 3/28 - 23 (1982) 3/29 - 25 (1959)* 3/30 - 23 (1970) 3/31 - 24 (1964) JFK 3/26 - 20 (1960) 3/27 - 24 (2001)* 3/28 - 22 (1982) 3/29 - 26 (1959)* 3/30 - 22 (1970) 3/31 - 21 (1964) BDR 3/26 - 15 (1960) 3/27 - 20 (2001)* 3/28 - 17 (1966) 3/29 - 19 (1966) 3/30 - 16 (1970) 3/31 - 21 (1964) HVN 3/26 - 15 (1960) 3/27 - 23 (1975)* 3/28 - 19 (1982)* 3/29 - 19 (1974) 3/30 - 19 (1970) 3/31 - 24 (1964)* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'm sure uncleW knows the answer to this, but when was the last time a record low was broken on any day in Central Park, especially in winter? With the UHI, seems like there aren't even any close calls these days. It's a shame this cold air will likely be "wasted" without any snow. Although OKX gives us some hope in today's AFD: MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. MODELS START TO DIFFER WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...PASSING NEAR THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW OVER THE CWA...WHICH WOULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE 12Z GEM TAKES THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TIL THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THURSDAY DRY.... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'm sure uncleW knows the answer to this, but when was the last time a record low was broken on any day in Central Park, especially in winter? With the UHI, seems like there aren't even any close calls these days. It's a shame this cold air will likely be "wasted" without any snow. Although OKX gives us some hope in today's AFD: MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. MODELS START TO DIFFER WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...PASSING NEAR THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW OVER THE CWA...WHICH WOULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE 12Z GEM TAKES THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TIL THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THURSDAY DRY.... http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off 3/3/2003 11 degrees ties the record... 1/16/2004 one degree ties the record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 3/3/2003 11 degrees ties the record... 1/16/2004 one degree ties the record... Unc did we break any records after the superstorm in 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 March 15th, 1993 had a record low of 14 at Central Park and EWR Unc did we break any records after the superstorm in 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 3/3/2003 11 degrees ties the record... 1/16/2004 one degree ties the record... Came close between Jun 16 - 17 2009, nothin since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Central Park records are at or below 20F for the rest of March, and thus out of reach. If we get a renewed cold shot in the 11-15 day period as suggested by Euro and GFS ensembles, then some of these record lows might be within reach: Apr 8: 25 1982 Apr 9: 25 1977 Apr 10: 28 1997* Apr 11: 24 1909 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Central Park records are at or below 20F for the rest of March, and thus out of reach. If we get a renewed cold shot in the 11-15 day period as suggested by Euro and GFS ensembles, then some of these record lows might be within reach: Apr 8: 25 1982 Apr 9: 25 1977 Apr 10: 28 1997* Apr 11: 24 1909 It'll be interesting to see how long and strong the cold can achieve once past the first week of April. Suspect we may see the worst of the cold (against avg) through the end of month then a moderation. Very similar to 2007 in my opinion just 2 weeks earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Central Park records are at or below 20F for the rest of March, and thus out of reach. If we get a renewed cold shot in the 11-15 day period as suggested by Euro and GFS ensembles, then some of these record lows might be within reach: Apr 8: 25 1982 , 26 1972 Apr 9: 25 1977 Apr 10: 28 1997* 1985* 1974* Apr 11: 24 1909 I added some other years... Here is a list of the coldest April days since 1950... 21 4/6/1982 21 4/7/1982 23 4/5/1995 23 4/4/1954 24 4/3/1954 25 4/12/1976 25 4/9/1977 25 4/8/1982 26 4/14/1950 26 4/8/1972 26 4/9/1950 27 4/7/1950 27 4/5/1975 27 4/4/1975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I added some other years... Here is a list of the coldest April days since 1950... 21 4/6/1982 21 4/7/1982 23 4/5/1995 23 4/4/1954 24 4/3/1954 25 4/12/1976 25 4/9/1977 25 4/8/1982 26 4/14/1950 26 4/8/1972 26 4/9/1950 27 4/7/1950 27 4/5/1975 27 4/4/1975 Unc thanks for the data, as always. Guidance also indicating we'll continue the wetter than normal pattern into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Unc thanks for the data, as always. Guidance also indicating we'll continue the wetter than normal pattern into April. March 2011 might become a top ten wettest March with another half inch or so...Last year was the wettest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 March 2011 might become a top ten wettest March with another half inch or so...Last year was the wettest... from drought to deluge as has been the typical case of late in the overall wetter than normal pattern since 2003. Back on topic, the ECm and GFS maintain troughiness in or near the northeast through aboount Apirl 5th. Euro builds ridge into the nations midsection warms, perhaps leading to an eventual warmup further east towards second week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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