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April 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Hoosier

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I'll take boring now for exciting in May.

Man I hope there is action in May, now while Paul Pastelok is no JB at playing the analogs and teleconnections, his words about persistent chill into and through June seriously has me thinking back to the summer that wasn't 2 years ago ( I think) and how abysmal the severe season was. Just amazed despite the Pna going negative and the NAO heading positive that this cold regime still holds center court. Is the SE ridge going to mess with the Bermuda high this summer thus causing it to be colder around here? Sh*t I just can't figure it out even though the SOI continues to fall,(lag times into play?) and the NWS thinks Nina is gone by June, which I'm not so sure off. Oh well perhaps we can make up for this by a warm fall. It's not April yet and I feel like spring and summer are cancelled...geeesh.

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Well this makes me feel better, this is from Tom Skilling on Facebook...

We've checked Marches & springs which followed comparably cold winters (this past winter ranked 30th coldest of the past 140 years). We found 19 such winters and the Marches which followed tended in a slight majority of those years ended up cooler and drier than normal. The larger meteorological spring period (March through May) ended up near-normal temp-wise and continued a drier than average bias. In checking summers which followed La Nina springs, we found a slight majority end up warmer than normal.

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Man I hope there is action in May, now while Paul Pastelok is no JB at playing the analogs and teleconnections, his words about persistent chill into and through June seriously has me thinking back to the summer that wasn't 2 years ago ( I think) and how abysmal the severe season was. Just amazed despite the Pna going negative and the NAO heading positive that this cold regime still holds center court. Is the SE ridge going to mess with the Bermuda high this summer thus causing it to be colder around here? Sh*t I just can't figure it out even though the SOI continues to fall,(lag times into play?) and the NWS thinks Nina is gone by June, which I'm not so sure off. Oh well perhaps we can make up for this by a warm fall. It's not April yet and I feel like spring and summer are cancelled...geeesh.

So you make a solid case here...but!

This chatter repeats itself every November and April. In November we get the "snowless" winter worries and every April we get the "Year without a summer" stuff.

Dont get ahead of yourselves here. Lets sit back and watch how things un-fold this April. Yes we have had a "cool" end to March.. This happens allot and isnt out of the ordinary. In fact MBY still gets frost well into mid-May. Last frost typically happens around May 10th or so. Ive seen snow on May 1st followed by 75 degrees three days latter. Ive seen 7 inches on opening day followed by a Hot Hot Hot Summer. Read up on 1812 & 1992 and you will find how "un-normal" those summers were. Volcanic Ash played a massive roll in 1812. The Icelandic Volcano we just had is being called a non issue by the climo geeks..(ill provide a link soon)

So long story made short. Enjoy your extended winter and snow chances. Summer is coming!!!!!

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18 days this March with high temps in the 30's..Same as 2008.. Sure hope we get a repeat of 08/09 this summer.. 77 here last March 31st. What a difference a yr will make this spring.. Glad I'll prob never see another spring as warm as last yr for as long as I live. Looking forward to cooler by the Lake season now and sending this terrible winter to its death bed. Last yrs winter grade, D- This winter gets a C. Next winter is going to be good. Cold & Snowy for all - Not this poosy cold stuff we had this yr. Real arctic outbreaks to return.

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18 days this March with high temps in the 30's..Same as 2008.. Sure hope we get a repeat of 08/09 this summer.. 77 here last March 31st. What a difference a yr will make this spring.. Glad I'll prob never see another spring as warm as last yr for as long as I live. Looking forward to cooler by the Lake season now and sending this terrible winter to its death bed. Last yrs winter grade, D- This winter gets a C. Next winter is going to be good. Cold & Snowy for all - Not this poosy cold stuff we had this yr. Real arctic outbreaks to return.

To get that we are gonna need to lose the drought/dry crap in the southern Plains later this summer into the Fall and place the dry stuff in the northern parts and se part of the country. because if not we end up with the same crappy low tracks etc. CO ( on north ) lows never have and never will cut it for us as far as snow goes. Also less Atlantic blocking would be good too. Unless we get a weak Nina i am not getting excited.

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To get that we are gonna need to lose the drought/dry crap in the southern Plains later this summer into the Fall and place the dry stuff in the northern parts and se part of the country. because if not we end up with the same crappy low tracks etc. CO ( on north ) lows never have and never will cut it for us as far as snow goes. Also less Atlantic blocking would be good too. Unless we get a weak Nina i am not getting excited.

Harry, please explain in a little more detail if you have time. What does drought/dry in in the southern plains equate to in winter?

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Harry, please explain in a little more detail if you have time. What does drought/dry in in the southern plains equate to in winter?

See what we have now and have had alot of this winter. Ofcourse if the PNA decided to stay crapped out ( -PNA all winter ) then we would see a even warmer regime ( GL on east ) with that there with systems constantly cutting to MN/N.Lakes. What kept that in check this winter was the blocking to the east which forced systems to turn east and even ese as they got to IA etc vs making the run to Duluth/UP of Michigan. So yeah it can work in your favor vs those farther to the se.

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Nice. I have pics from that EXACT spot as well!

2061-800.jpg

2062-800.jpg

Meanwhile, as April opens here, a few questions...will April be DTW's 5th consecutive colder than normal month? Also, will we finish the snow season by cracking 70" or has the last already fallen?

possibly yes to snow but no to cooler than normal..Brief warm ups could very well balance the April temps to just around normal..We shall see.

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As boring as its been the last week+, 2011 is on pace to be a wet year, if the first quarter is any indication.

MBY totals:

January 2011: Precip- 1.76", Snow- 18.0"

February 2011: Precip- 3.89", Snow- 31.8"

March 2011: Precip- 4.00", Snow- 9.1"

Jan 1-Mar 31, 2011: Precip: 9.65", Snow- 58.9"

Well take notice to the long range models..Severe weather for our area is about to kick into overdrive. Warm-ups galore on the way!

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Well take notice to the long range models..Severe weather for our area is about to kick into overdrive. Warm-ups galore on the way!

Good point, the 12z really shows some nice warmth pertruded by brief shots of cooler air, could get things going starting next week. In fact towards the end of next week maybe into the following weekend looks like that might have some potential.

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I'm really hoping my SPC first high risk will verify April 4 as predicted by me back in January in the first high risk prediction thread. I outlined MO, southern IL, and the lower Ohio Valley so I may be a bit north from what may verify, but the date looks promising with this incoming system.

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I'm really hoping my SPC first high risk will verify April 4 as predicted by me back in January in the first high risk prediction thread. I outlined MO, southern IL, and the lower Ohio Valley so I may be a bit north from what may verify, but the date looks promising with this incoming system.

It won't be a high risk the way it looks now.

Also, had the biggest snowflakes over "winter" this afternoon after we changed over from rain, and than had some graupel for about 2 min around 4pm.

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Has anyone in Michigan gotten under any of these convective showers yet? The ones moving through Oakland County looks very impressive. There's likely some snowflakes and small hail mixed in them.

The air outside looks unstable, and it indeed is taking a look at the SPC mesoanalysis, so you tell something fun is brewing.

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