SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 summer of 09 repeat on deck? Edit: or was that 08, whatever that summer of perpetual april was. 2009 FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 summer of 09 repeat on deck? Edit: or was that 08, whatever that summer of perpetual april was. Yup 09. My weenie guess for this summer is something a lot closer to 2009 than the summer of 2010. I'm hoping for something in between the 2 or basically AVG to slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yup 09. My weenie guess for this summer is something a lot closer to 2009 than the summer of 2010. Lets hope not!! Although here we go again..Temps Stuck in upper 30s and rain..WTF where is April. Gona be funny when NWS Met Offices start putting out "cool spring to persist" discos. When that happens it will be the icing on the cake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Lets hope not!! Although here we go again..Temps Stuck in upper 30s and rain..WTF where is April. Gona be funny when NWS Met Offices start putting out "cool spring to persist" discos. When that happens it will be the icing on the cake! I hope not either.. I think almost every weekend that summer was fail. Last yr was way to fooking swampy ass for my liking.. Give me 80's and dp's in the upper 40's all summer and I'd be happy. If I lived on a lake give me last summer every summer and I wouldn't care. Nothing like a good skinny dip at midnight with the temp 84/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Nice spring/summer outlook posted on GRR NWS page. Basically saying above average precip and lower temps in spring and drier than normal summer with temps a bit over average. Golf league starts next week. Courses going to be a complete mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Harry, When looking at the AO outlook, how realiable is it say 2 weeks out as it showed by May the majority of the ensembles show it going negative? I ask this because of planting concerns, I suspect until that cold pool drains out that the first half of May the possibility of hard freezes all the way to I-70 are possible. Do you think we are safe or is the threat of feezes looming for May? My gut tells me we see a freeze and a grass sticking snow as far south as I-80...just ahunch but the way things are going this spring it wouldn't surprise me. Harry, one other thing, your pretty good at the long range stuff and I have already declared a spring cancel, do you think this summer is shot? Thanks for reading! Like anything modeled i would not get too concerned yet. Granted the thing has been way on the +side for a slew of month's now. As for the threat of freezing temps? I could see that happening into early/mid May. Been a while since we saw a accumulating snow in May in these parts anyways. Not saying it will happen but this year does offer the best shot at that then we have seen in a number of years thanks to what i mentioned earlier and thus see Canada snow cover and the AO/Cold supply to the north. As for Summer i would not say it is shot but i do think the chances of a repeat of what we had last summer are very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 La Crosse's normal high temp is up to 61 degrees and at the NWS office they pounded out 8.3" Green Bay avg. high is 56 and pounded out 9.9" They are now up to 92.4'! They have taken advantage of all mke's 30's and rain events. Avg high temp is 55 here and won't see 61 until May 3rd. Good ole LM can be your worst enemy or best friend. Yes, and there have probably been a half dozen of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Well the 12z GFS offers some hope. Lets see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Harry and Sparty, Thanks for chimming in with some input, the GRR disco was a great read, and it would not surprise me if we go from persistent chilly and wet to bam summer. Skilling has it 'possibly" torching on Tue with an 80 degree high....could be a wicked severe setup next week closer to us this time around. Bring it on, last nights squall line with multiple state bow echoes was wicked cool to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Well the 12z GFS offers some hope. Lets see if it holds. Bump, saw that, actually for some time shows a consistent seasonal to slightly above pattern emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 12z GFS says cold rain next week yet again. On board with 0z Euro. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The euro, after showing promise in the 7-10 day period a few days ago, has gotten worse with each run since then. The latest 12z has essentially eliminated any significant warmup(above normal temps) for the next 10+ days for the upper midwest. With this pattern we may not see 70 degrees again until well into May. I can't stand long stretches of cool/cold weather in mid to late spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Overall theme Im getting here...Its time for the warmth of Spring/Summer. We will get there guys! Just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Had a solid 2 hrs of heavy rain with thunder and some small hail last night, which was really impressive with temps in the mid 30s, quite a lot of elevated instability snuck in north of the warm front. The med range looks wet, but it appears will be staying north of the warm front for those events as well Ya I was quite impressed with the storms yesterday being it was 37/33 at my house, the lightning was something you would see a good summer storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Well decided painfully to read JB's ass and he said ready set freezing cold May on tap northern plains and especially the northeast....here is the link. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1241 Playing the 2008 card but with a little less severe weather. The painfully sh*tty spring continues....Also thinks >50% chance of la nina next year as well. Time to start thinking about moving SW seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Well decided painfully to read JB's ass and he said ready set freezing cold May on tap northern plains and especially the northeast....here is the link. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1241 Playing the 2008 card but with a little less severe weather. The painfully sh*tty spring continues....Also thinks >50% chance of la nina next year as well. Time to start thinking about moving SW seriously. The cool May of 2008 wasn't all that bad. Funny because the following 2008 Summer was a nice one around my neck of the woods. FWIW JB is a douche bag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 The cool May of 2008 wasn't all that bad. Funny because the following 2008 Summer was a nice one around my neck of the woods. FWIW JB is a douche bag! Yeah 2008 summer was fairly warm, not a ton of 90 plus degree days around ORD but it was warm and at time pretty humid. JB does get on my nerves although he can connect the dots pretty good on the long range stuff although he isn't always spot on. Douchebag for sure, but I'll listen to him before I listen to the ass Margusity and his big daddy hombre Pastelok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Really think JB needs to lay off the juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 NWS Des Moines do drugs? They always have these goofy pics up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 NWS Des Moines do drugs? They always have these goofy pics up. LMFAO! That's one demented sun they have there. Was cold and cloudy all day here. Many of the trees have very small leaves, but they haven't grown at all in several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LMFAO! That's one demented sun they have there. Was cold and cloudy all day here. Many of the trees have very small leaves, but they haven't grown at all in several days. Funny things happen to the mind as the midnight shift winds down. Case in point, here is part of the winter weather advisory I continued yesterday morning. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 402 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011 ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS TODAY... .A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE NORTH TODAY...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...CHANGING TO A MIX WITH SLEEP AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SOMERSET COUNTY...MAY REMAIN SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AN OCCLUDED FROM WILL THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. I mean the 'p' is nowhere near the 't' on the keyboard, but at least we know what was on my mind at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LMFAO! That's one demented sun they have there. Was cold and cloudy all day here. Many of the trees have very small leaves, but they haven't grown at all in several days. Yeah... We won't comment on the Des Moines Weather Story and the associated images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LMFAO! That's one demented sun they have there. Was cold and cloudy all day here. Many of the trees have very small leaves, but they haven't grown at all in several days. Geesh, looks like they all took a hit of acid and said hey f*ckers let's draw a sun and jazzz the maps up...creepy. Skilling last night said that following such cloudy Aprils around here that summers following tneded to be slightly cooler, less 90's but also less wet. Summer 2008 around ORD June was cool and wet, July turned hot, especially the first 15 days of the month averging 8-15 degrees above normal and August trended normal...the following fall also was seasonal with a rapid cooldown in Octobers closing 2 weeks. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Been a good week or two since I have seen the sun. Storm after storm for another week or so then it looks like these northern stream low pressures migrate north and the warmth begins as the southern stream becomes dominant. Will probably still rain but atleast it will be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Thats some hydro issues!! SEMI precip just for April is pushing 3 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Thats some hydro issues!! SEMI precip just for April is pushing 3 inches! And most of the rivers in the OV area are already in some flooding stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 807 AM EDT THU APR 21 2011 VALID 12Z MON APR 25 2011 - 12Z THU APR 28 2011 GOOD EARLY ON MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 TUES WITH HPC PROGS USING A MIX OF 00Z ECMWF AND ENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF. BY DAY 5 THE AMPLIFYING PLAINS TROF IS KICKED OUT FASTER BY THE 00Z ECMWF THAN OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. 4 AND 8 MEMBER LAGGED AVERAGES INDICATE THAT THIS IS TOO FAST WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT AND A LAGGED AVERAGE OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENSMEBLES. LARGE MODEL DIFFERNECES LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 THU/FRI BETWEEN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF BUT EXCELLENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT OF THESE MODELS. DAYS 6 AND 7 WED/THU USED ECMWF ENS MEANS AS A BASE. HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX/ERN OK THRU MO AND UP ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE 3-5 INCH 48 HR RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY HEAVIER CAN BE EXPECTED THRU DAY 5 TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST BUT ITS ANCHORED END NEAR THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN MO/AR AND IL WITH ADITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WITH 5 DAY TOTALS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IN THE 6-9 INCH RANGE ACROSS NERN OK/MO AND INTO IL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SPRING AGRICULTURAL PREPARATIONS IN THIS AREA. THS PAC NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS WET WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AND A SERIES OF MINOR PACIFIC SYSTEMS BRINGING IN MAINLY COASTAL RANGE RAINFALL. WEST ATLC/EAST COAST MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM H850 TEMPS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO PUNCHING NWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUES/WED. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LOL... And warm-ups just love high water content in soil..Just cant catch a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Oh My.... There is this giant ball of fire in the sky! Think SEMI can actually pull off a nice day !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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