roardog Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Amazing stuff huh? Even had a little sleet/snow mix in a short while ago here with a heavier shower that passed through. what's even more amazing is the chance of freezing rain in the forecast for some areas of the state tonight. Freezing rain in late April.lol Snow is one thing but to have enough low level cold for freezing rain is almost incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 what's even more amazing is the chance of freezing rain in the forecast for some areas of the state tonight. Freezing rain in late April.lol Snow is one thing but to have enough low level cold for freezing rain is almost incredible. Another crazy thing is all the indices would suggest a torch pattern right now. AO/NAO all well into the + side with the PNA on the -side. Ofcourse the very positive AO has helped to keep the cold going very strong up north as well. Cannot imagine the kind of cold we could see if that puppy decided to head south into the negative side. Keep in mind nearly all of Canada is still snow covered ( The best coverage since 1998 ) which yeah is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Another crazy thing is all the indices would suggest a torch pattern right now. AO/NAO all well into the + side with the PNA on the -side. Ofcourse the very positive AO has helped to keep the cold going very strong up north as well. Cannot imagine the kind of cold we could see if that puppy decided to head south into the negative side. Keep in mind nearly all of Canada is still snow covered ( The best coverage since 1998 ) which yeah is pretty amazing. I'd like to see Canada stay cooler than normal going into early Summer. That would probably eventually give us some good severe weather as everything gradually shifts north seasonally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Another crazy thing is all the indices would suggest a torch pattern right now. AO/NAO all well into the + side with the PNA on the -side. Ofcourse the very positive AO has helped to keep the cold going very strong up north as well. Cannot imagine the kind of cold we could see if that puppy decided to head south into the negative side. Keep in mind nearly all of Canada is still snow covered ( The best coverage since 1998 ) which yeah is pretty amazing. Wouldnt + ao mean warmer temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wouldnt + ao mean warmer temps? Not necessarily for Canada. As a matter of fact, it would generally mean cooler temps for northern Canada. However, right now basically all of Canada has below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'd like to see Canada stay cooler than normal going into early Summer. That would probably eventually give us some good severe weather as everything gradually shifts north seasonally. That has been my hope. Add that to the GOM juice ( more so then normal ), and then that drought to our sw in the S.Plains. Oh man. Just a matter of getting a system to take that track and of decent strength. Just hope it is not too much of a good thing and thus we don't end up on the cold side of the systems. Wouldnt + ao mean warmer temps? Down our way it can depend on other things ( thus can go either way but yeah usually favors warmer ) but up north NO. Usually means a colder/more intense PV to the north. Thus as roardog mentioned the colder temps across Canada. Keep in mind the AO has been on the + side for the most part since late January and thus probably why we have such a good supply of cold up north. Note last year ( winter 09-10 ) the AO was negative going into Spring which imo drained all the cold from the north and thus why i suspect we had a very warm spring as there was not much of a cold source to be found up north. Others may disagree but that's my thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 based on radar trends it looks like some decent elevated storms on tap for later this evening. nothing special but better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Didn't know where to put this but a pretty humorous Short Term Forecast: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ066&warncounty=WIC079&firewxzone=WIZ066&local_place1=3+Miles+NNE+Wauwatosa+WI&product1=Short+Term+Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 A major factor is the EPO being negative causing the pv/arctic jet to be farther south than usual this time of year inducing friction and low level mositure/heavy cloudiness keeping temps down below what the upper levels would say I-80 north, well below. Sorta a bleeding down. A "normalization" of the pv/arctic jet should drain the swamp so to speak even if the -EPO continues as the seasonal forces move north. If it backs off like forecasted, than early May may feel like a bit of summer like unless something else comes in to save the day so to speak. You can see this "battle line" on the long range ensembles. So this April has been a bit of a 'stinker' I-80 north, normal I-70 north and warmer than average I-70 south. Frankly, I could deal with a winter like pattern of this all winter. Spring, bleh. On a side note I always enjoy your write ups on climo. FWIW. Local met offices speak off this pattern breaking down as early as next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 sounds like a few pingers and some nice gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 sounds like a few pingers and some nice gusts. Same here and also getting a nice light show. Lots of rain coming up this week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 A major factor is the EPO being negative causing the pv/arctic jet to be farther south than usual this time of year inducing friction and low level mositure/heavy cloudiness keeping temps down below what the upper levels would say I-80 north, well below. Sorta a bleeding down. A "normalization" of the pv/arctic jet should drain the swamp so to speak even if the -EPO continues as the seasonal forces move north. If it backs off like forecasted, than early May may feel like a bit of summer like unless something else comes in to save the day so to speak. You can see this "battle line" on the long range ensembles. So this April has been a bit of a 'stinker' I-80 north, normal I-70 north and warmer than average I-70 south. Frankly, I could deal with a winter like pattern of this all winter. Spring, bleh. The EPO has not been that negative though. Regardless you are still gonna have a big supply of cold to the north as long as the AO stays positive. Not sure where you get this stuff from? YES a -EPO can help bring down the cold but it won't drain it as long as the AO is +positive. That AO is now a double edge sword so to speak because if that does decide to head south ( negative ) we could see a unusually cold outbreak especially with a snow covered Canada which looks to remain that way for the next 5days or so. Anything beyond that period showing on models/ensembles is pure crap and i say that because of the piss poor model performance as of recent. Not sure why you people continue to get hyped over models beyond day 5. Yes they could be right but i personally suggest waiting till we get this stuff inside of 72hrs. Heck look at this system today that a few days ago the models had tracking to the UP of MI. Thus all i am saying is to be careful and not to get too excited on the longer range stuff. EPO.. This should look quite a bit different by say Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 count me as impressed by this action, some pretty good sustained stormy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 count me as impressed by this action, some pretty good sustained stormy conditions. a decent 3rd place trophy for not being able to chase today thanks to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The EPO has not been that negative though. Regardless you are still gonna have a big supply of cold to the north as long as the AO stays positive. Not sure where you get this stuff from? YES a -EPO can help bring down the cold but it won't drain it as long as the AO is +positive. That AO is now a double edge sword so to speak because if that does decide to head south ( negative ) we could see a unusually cold outbreak especially with a snow covered Canada which looks to remain that way for the next 5days or so. Anything beyond that period showing on models/ensembles is pure crap and i say that because of the piss poor model performance as of recent. Not sure why you people continue to get hyped over models beyond day 5. Yes they could be right but i personally suggest waiting till we get this stuff inside of 72hrs. Heck look at this system today that a few days ago the models had tracking to the UP of MI. Thus all i am saying is to be careful and not to get too excited on the longer range stuff. EPO.. This should look quite a bit different by say Friday. Harry, When looking at the AO outlook, how realiable is it say 2 weeks out as it showed by May the majority of the ensembles show it going negative? I ask this because of planting concerns, I suspect until that cold pool drains out that the first half of May the possibility of hard freezes all the way to I-70 are possible. Do you think we are safe or is the threat of feezes looming for May? My gut tells me we see a freeze and a grass sticking snow as far south as I-80...just ahunch but the way things are going this spring it wouldn't surprise me. Harry, one other thing, your pretty good at the long range stuff and I have already declared a spring cancel, do you think this summer is shot? Thanks for reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Harry, When looking at the AO outlook, how realiable is it say 2 weeks out as it showed by May the majority of the ensembles show it going negative? I ask this because of planting concerns, I suspect until that cold pool drains out that the first half of May the possibility of hard freezes all the way to I-70 are possible. Do you think we are safe or is the threat of feezes looming for May? My gut tells me we see a freeze and a grass sticking snow as far south as I-80...just ahunch but the way things are going this spring it wouldn't surprise me. Harry, one other thing, your pretty good at the long range stuff and I have already declared a spring cancel, do you think this summer is shot? Thanks for reading! I know you asked Harry on his opinion. But... Whats this summer shot stuff? Are you hinting at an historically cold summer? By reading back on history the "year without a summer" was very un-normal for lack of a better word and volcanically induced. Sure areas around the lakes could experience a cooler than norm summer. But nothing would tell me that it would be that severe to affect planting season. Trust me bro summer will come. And my final thing is..Last year's insanely warm Spring is something you may not see for a while. Almost a fluke but not. Maybe Harry could explain why last year was so insane and out of the realm of typical Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 was very un-normal for lack of a better word How about abnormal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yesterdays snow was nice, todays COLD rain was not. We will end up falling just, and I mean JUST short of 70" here for the 2010-11 season (69.4" imby, 69.1" DTW)....in a climo of 44", combined with persistent cold and the most snowcovered winter of my life (not to mention all the surprises), I cant say it enough...A+ winter. It IS time for spring, and it would be nice to move on until November, but this cold must go or else I will keep the snowbug lol. Of course it would also be nice to have sunshine and some normal temps (which have now reached 60F). But 30s and rain....NOOO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Harry, one other thing, your pretty good at the long range stuff and I have already declared a spring cancel, do you think this summer is shot? Thanks for reading! How is it spring cancel? Most of the Midwest/Ohio Valley is well above average in terms of April temperatures. There are supposed to be some cold days in April, you live in the North buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 How is it spring cancel? Most of the Midwest/Ohio Valley is well above average in terms of April temperatures. There are supposed to be some cold days in April, you live in the North buddy. I think the perception is different from reality since there were maybe 1 or 2 extremely warm days in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Just to put this recent severe weather trend this month into perspective, this is SPC's graph using a 0.85 x LSR count for tornadoes to get an adjusted tornado trend for the year so far. Not including tonight's stuff we have already passed 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Itsimportant for those to realize that last Spring was a complete cluster!!! Its been cool here in SEMI this month but nothing crazy though. Hit the 70s then had a day hit 84..Damn we even had a high of 41..So yea its been cool for the most part but this Spring is acting like it should..plenty of "teaser" days and chilly nights. What cracks me up big time to...We had a snowstorm on Monday followed by Severe Storms 24 hours latter! These images do more at explaining this April for Detroit than any write up! >>>>>>>>>>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 GRR giving some thoughts on this busy pattern. WHILE IN ONE ASPECT IT SEEMS THE PATTERN IS LARGELY UNCHANGING FOR THE NEXT WEEK... THAT WOULD BE INCORRECT. WHILE A SERIES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK THE PLACE OF ORIGIN WILL SHIFT. CURRENTLY OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX... WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CANADA. THE LAST STORM IN THIS SERIES WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THAT IS DONE...WE SWITCH FROM A NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WAVE PATTERN TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WAVE PATTERN. THAT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM BRINGS ALL THAT WARM MOIST AIR THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF HERE ALL OF THIS WEEK INTO OUR REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I know you asked Harry on his opinion. But... Whats this summer shot stuff? Are you hinting at an historically cold summer? By reading back on history the "year without a summer" was very un-normal for lack of a better word and volcanically induced. Sure areas around the lakes could experience a cooler than norm summer. But nothing would tell me that it would be that severe to affect planting season. Trust me bro summer will come. And my final thing is..Last year's insanely warm Spring is something you may not see for a while. Almost a fluke but not. Maybe Harry could explain why last year was so insane and out of the realm of typical Springs. Sparty, I'm having a hard time figuring out the summer pattern. For one, a pattern like we are in now can sometimes be hard to break, and I can see this pattern continuing for months with surges of heat preceeding advancing storms. Not suggesting a cold or shot summer, but was more or less trying to grasp the nina pattern. Does it continue to hold, (has the SOI risen) like it had about a week and a half ago or do we go neutral. A big wig at NASA suggests we see strong el nino (an outlier) but may have to be considered. Really proving to be a tough outlook. Finally where does the Bermuda high setup and does a pesky SE ridge flex it's muscle? So many things to grasp, and Sparty your pretty bright about stuff and I truly appreciate your input and thank you always for pointing things out to me so thank you. Yeah and Hoosier was spot on with the abnormal spring last year. I may never live to see another spring like that. Clearly the trees are already 3 weeks behind and when said and done may be about a month behind from last year around Chicago. I miss abnormal springs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Even to me and I love below normal temps its been a miserable spring/last 30 days so far filled with cold 30's and rain with only a few nice days I can count on one hand. Add another 4 days to that map of at least -10 day highs. Thankfully there were signs of spring coming in in full force up here next week the last time I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 @River Card. I wish I could fully answer your questions about this upcoming pattern..but I cant. Im not on the level of skill to forecast entire long range patterns. Maybe a Met or a seasoned Geek could explain the long range to us both. I will say that I think you may be slightly off with the "green-up" being 3 weeks behind. Although for my local Climo I would say we are at most 1 week slow if not right on track. For SEMI our typical "green-up" seems to take place during the last week of April and it really kicks into gear come May. My Birthday is on May 18th..So I tend to be very "in-tune" with the weather during that time frame. Ive seen everything from a complete Torch to a cold 45 and rain. Its funny because Ive seen this so many times before. Where we have had a slow/cool April then come May things rapidly change! Still think that this Spring is running fine. BTW if it makes you feel better take a look at the Disco GRR issued. It really puts what has happened into perspective. Just by looking at my local point and click it shows a snap into Spring come this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 La Crosse's normal high temp is up to 61 degrees and at the NWS office they pounded out 8.3" Green Bay avg. high is 56 and pounded out 9.9" They are now up to 92.4'! They have taken advantage of all mke's 30's and rain events. Avg high temp is 55 here and won't see 61 until May 3rd. Good ole LM can be your worst enemy or best friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Had a solid 2 hrs of heavy rain with thunder and some small hail last night, which was really impressive with temps in the mid 30s, quite a lot of elevated instability snuck in north of the warm front. The med range looks wet, but it appears will be staying north of the warm front for those events as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sure hope last nights euro was just a hiccup or else next weeks warm spring thoughts is instead a lot of cooler by the lake hell while a torch in the OV and nice temps to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sure hope last nights euro was just a hiccup or else next weeks warm spring thoughts is instead a lot of cooler by the lake hell while a torch in the OV and nice temps to the west. summer of 09 repeat on deck? Edit: or was that 08, whatever that summer of perpetual april was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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