Natester Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Well, picked up a quick inch of snow from this band of heavy snow. This was totally unexpected! Winter's last hoorah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I just measured about 0.8 to 0.9 inches of snow. There were quarter to half dollar size flakes and it was snowing as hard as it had all season. I sure as heck wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 What a surprise, more chilly rain is in the forecast. Looks like Milwaukee is the king of that this year. I'll bet we have had 5 or 6 systems this year alone that have brought mostly a chilly rain with temps between 32 and 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I just measured about 0.8 to 0.9 inches of snow. There were quarter to half dollar size flakes and it was snowing as hard as it had all season. I sure as heck wasn't expecting that. Congrats! I'm hoping the rain/snow line makes it here, but it may come up just short. We're down to 38 now, so it's gonna be close. I'll be happy just to see a few flakes since that will more than likely be it for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Well ain't this a b****, a line of t'storms are firing up just to the SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Band of steep low-level lapse rates in Ohio associated with clearing. Moisture isn't that great, but I'd assume there is some CAPE. Looks like a lot of vorticity along the front with SE winds out ahead. I think the area has a shot at some mini-supercells, especially with the strong vort max coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Powerful storm after storm taking the track through chicago into canada. No long term warmups in the near future. Just cold and rainy. Crazy video of all the tornadoes in the past week or so. Can only imagine how scared citizens in these videos are when they are driving down the freeway and seeing a monster tornado just fly by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Nice to see the snow flying again. airport came in with .3" Record snowfall/precip for the date was back in 1921 with 14" 1.23 liquid. Another week of the warminista's on the news whining about next week stuck in the 40's - i love it. Euro looks like we could maybe salvage a nice Easter Sunday. I'll be ready for a warm up by then and hit the crappie fishing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Flurries here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Stuck in the 40's? Not here man. Not impressed by the so called 'rain" either. Last year was more impressive. Yeah you're a little better off out that way at times for avoiding 40's but nothing to right home about. No surprise as it was a spring we'll never see again. I can't help either that SE MI is a cesspool for most big weather either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yeah you're a little better off out that way at times for avoiding 40's but nothing to right home about. No surprise as it was a spring we'll never see again. I can't help either that SE MI is a cesspool for most big weather either. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Been looking at the Tuesday system so much apparently I missed this impulse that is supposed to come through this evening/night From DTX's morning AFD. .LONG TERM... BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR IS MAKING GOOD INROADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORTING SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE 00Z RAOB OUT OF GREEN BAY TELLS THE STORY...-7 C AT 850 MB...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 50 KNOTS. THIS COLD AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SETTLING IN THE NEGATIVE MID TO UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN ADVANCING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE PRESENT TIME...ZIPS ALONG TO THE EAST. TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHICH LAYER WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. BOTH NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING INTENSE LIFT BETWEEN 700-500 MB WORKING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH QPF TOTALS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR-DETROIT LINE...WITH GFS EVEN INDICATING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE SNEAKING NORTH OF EIGHT MILE. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL SNOW. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS CONCERNING DUE TO THE TIMING WHICH WILL BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND BECAUSE OF THE INTENSITY...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 6 HR WINDOW. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SEEN AT THE 700 MB LEVEL IS CLOSE TO 4 G/KG ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...SO MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE INTENSE LIFT ADVERTISED. A LOOK TO THE REGIONAL GEM AND UKMET SHOWS THE 850/700 MB FRONTS A BIT MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...AND THUS MAJORITY OF THE ACTION AND QPF IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH AMOUNTS ABOUT HALF OF THE AMERICAN SUITE. A LOOK AT THE WRF OUT OF MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY ALSO SHOWS THE MAX QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...AND PREFERENCE IS WITH THIS SOLUTION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSOURI IS QUICKLY VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY. EVEN SO...IT DOES APPEAR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR-DETROIT LINE...WITH POPS AND AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF AND SHUTTING DOWN AS ONE HEADS NORTH. FORECASTING UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF NORTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW...AND CONCERNS FOR SOME RAIN MIXING IN CUTTING DOWN ACCUMULATIONS...IN ADDITION TO COMPACTION DUE TO THE WET SNOW. THE LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OVER BY 15Z MONDAY. DIDN`T PARTICULARLY LIKE SEEING THE 00Z EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES QUARTER OF AN INCH TO 4 TENTHS OF INCH OF QPF FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THINKING IS THIS IS TOO BROAD BRUSHED...AS INTENSE LIFT WILL LEAD TO MORE FOCUSED BANDING...MOSTLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FGEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Light snow this morning... Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 654 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011SHORT-TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NEXT CONCERN IS PTYPE. 00Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN AND THEN RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE BAND OVERNIGHT PER WET BULB AFFECTS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BEST CHANCES FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPEAR TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AT THIS TIME. HAVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS IN THE COLDWATER/HILLSDALE/ANGOLA AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 654 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011SHORT-TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NEXT CONCERN IS PTYPE. 00Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN AND THEN RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE BAND OVERNIGHT PER WET BULB AFFECTS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BEST CHANCES FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPEAR TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AT THIS TIME. HAVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS IN THE COLDWATER/HILLSDALE/ANGOLA AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Yeah that sums up my reaction too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 06Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT are nuts for DET...indicating 6-9"....QPF suggests 3-6" with more realistic ration/melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 06Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT are nuts for DET...indicating 6-9"....QPF suggests 3-6" with more realistic rations/melting. 6Z is further north too. Gives me snow. I see we have a dusting of snow on cars and rooftops this morning. It looks like there are convective snow showers around this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I cannot believe I'm back into winter storm tracking mode...I'm still skeptical, but I was quite shocked to see DTX calling for 2-4" near the OH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 DTX Aviation THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY WET SNOWLATE IN THE TAF PERIOD /AFTER 06Z/...ESPECIALLY AROUND METRO DETROIT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I cannot believe I'm back into winter storm tracking mode...I'm still skeptical, but I was quite shocked to see DTX calling for 2-4" near the OH border. I'm always down for snow even though I'm anxious for warmer weather and golf season. Bit if it's going to be cold why not be in storm mode. Looks like dtx going with the gfs. Nam has us in the bullseye here in the northern burbs. We shall we what transpires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 LOT regarding late tonight THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY SETTING UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MO...CENTRAL IL AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS OK TONIGHT A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A CROSS SECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NORMAL TO THE THERMAL WIND SHOWS THIS STRONG FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITHIN AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV. IN ADDITION...MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC HEAVY WET SNOW SCENARIO WITH ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 200 MB AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG FRONTAL SCALE FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING AND CHANCE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF I-80 AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN SPITE OF THE WARM GROUND. I THINK THAT A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THIS FRONTAL BAND MATERIALIZES AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. USING SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 TO 1 GIVES ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS...I WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THIS VERY LATE SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'll be honest this is going to be one of those events where until it starts snowing I am not going to believe it lol. That being said the model trends are for at least measurable snow for Southern Lower Michigan, Northern Illinois and Extreme Southern Wisconsin. The time of day is right, coming at the latest part of the night. and it will be dry before it hits so the temps will wet-bulb down below freezing, like Chicago said this is your classic late season wet snowfall. One last thing to note however, the 06Z NAM and GFS did shift a bit north, that might be something to watch through the day, as this is going to be a very narrow band of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 This is just crazy...out of NOWHERE! All DTW needs is 1.7" of snow and they move from 6th to 5th place for snowiest winter. This would certainly be a great final act for what was a wonderful winter. When you combine snowfall and snowcover days, only two winters (1880-81 and 1981-82) were more harsh than 2010-11. It now appears that someone WILL get some heavy snow, however it just will be a matter of where the band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Per Nam snow starts right after the morning rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 What a surprise up to 6 inches is what I see...WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 We get no severe weather...but we sure as hell get late spring Snowstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 We get no severe weather...but we sure as hell get late spring Snowstorms! That's fine with me. I'll pass on deadly tornadoes in a highly populated area. Hows it goin up there in MT Orion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Total BS! Snow in April is the absolute worst! But needless to say Im impressed by the latest developments!!! A small price to pay before a late April Torch! Someone south of Wayne county will get a nasty surprise tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 LOL...A week ago today we were almost 44 degrees warmer and I was rocking shorts , Drinking a Summer Shandy and looking at my Wife's ass in her shorty shorts. What a difference a week makes. Seriously considering that move to GA!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That's fine with me. I'll pass on deadly tornadoes in a highly populated area. Hows it goin up there in MT Orion? Possibly moving 6-10 miles more south and east of Mt Orion....we shall see. Im pissed because im going to lose my annual snowfall but my wife hates it here and plus familys all in Shelby Township. Easier with kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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