Hoosier Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS has a big storm moving up the east coast on April 1. I think (or hope) we will see a reprieve in the below average regime after the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Calling SSC, 00Z Euro delivers snowstorm for YYZ D8 with 988 SLP from GA to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 At least early in the month, say the 5-7th, looks like the PNA goes sharply negative while the AO stays positive and the NAO eases into positive territory. I would expect it to begin warm, and then go through transitional periods of cool and showery weather and breaks of mild and sun. Overall I see precip a tad below normal and temps about -0.5 below average overall. 3-4 severe days look like a go as well. I do not understand the MJO cycle other than it's circle of death, however be interseting to see where that heads cause that says a lot about longer range activity. Latest SOI index continues to fall suggesting LA NINA is fading a pretty good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well looks like spring f**king cancel according to the the euro weeklies....geezus what a pathetic spring this is shaping up, f**k it might as well make May cold as well. Unreal, can only hope the euro is off but let's see. Suck ass forecast for baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Calling SSC, 00Z Euro delivers snowstorm for YYZ D8 with 988 SLP from GA to NYC Nice while it lasted. But I'll take a smaller mod. event like the GFS is showing next week over an April fantasy storm. It's been more than a decade since I've seen more than a slushy inch or two of snow in April, so the odds weren't in my favor to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well looks like spring f**king cancel according to the the euro weeklies....geezus what a pathetic spring this is shaping up, f**k it might as well make May cold as well. Unreal, can only hope the euro is off but let's see. Suck ass forecast for baseball. Exactly. I have a 27 game season tix plan with the tigers. Damn south american players suck in the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Meh, the "weeklies" have not done well lately. Saying "spring cancel" is overdoing it, especially when models are horrible at resolving patterns like these. ECMWF developes a cold bias while the GFS a warm one. That's reassuring, I mean the indicies out there certainly suggest some moderation, it may not hold but never the less we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Exactly. I have a 27 game season tix plan with the tigers. Damn south american players suck in the cold too. When the Tigers clinched the ALCS in 2006 on that Ordonez hr, I'll never forget Placido Polanco running the bases with that balaclava on. lol, it made it seem like it was in the teens outside, when in all likelihood it was in the 40s or something. Yeah, not to generalize, but on balance they don't seem to like the cool (let alone cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Exactly. I have a 27 game season tix plan with the tigers. Damn south american players suck in the cold too. I am going to my first game at Comerica park this season, in June, cannot wait. Looks like an awesome park too. Place is huuuge, a pitcher can get away with murder in that place. Yeah and the latin players blow when it's cold...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 When the Tigers clinched the ALCS in 2006 on that Ordonez hr, I'll never forget Placido Polanco running the bases with that balaclava on. lol, it made it seem like it was in the teens outside, when in all likelihood it was in the 40s or something. Yeah, not to generalize, but on balance they don't seem to like the cool (let alone cold). Lol yea i was at that game and while it was only 40 the wind chills were horrible. What a game tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 ECM ensembles all over the place in early April. Will it turn hot, seasonal or continued troughiness? I want to gain some knowledge from this post. With the PNA heading deep into negative territory in April would that suggest ridging over the central plains and triughiness out west? The NAO today really goes positive during this time which would suggest a more zonal flow and perhaps better organized weather outbreaks for us, and with the AO through the roof that would keep the deepest coldest air away? Any clarity would help, need to get the fundamentals in place and then try to move onto other things. SOI continues to drop, any ramifications even with seemingly good indicies to suggest warmer times? LA Nina may be gone by June...almost kinda looking ninoish a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I want to gain some knowledge from this post. With the PNA heading deep into negative territory in April would that suggest ridging over the central plains and triughiness out west? The NAO today really goes positive during this time which would suggest a more zonal flow and perhaps better organized weather outbreaks for us, and with the AO through the roof that would keep the deepest coldest air away? Any clarity would help, need to get the fundamentals in place and then try to move onto other things. SOI continues to drop, any ramifications even with seemingly good indicies to suggest warmer times? LA Nina may be gone by June...almost kinda looking ninoish a little. ENSO definitely plays a factor but its effects have a decent lag time so you shouldn't put too much stock into dips and rises in ENSO for this summer's forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2011 Author Share Posted March 26, 2011 Maybe a shot of warmth out ahead of that storm in the day 7-8 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I see the 12z GFS has highs back into the mid/upper 50s here by next Friday and near 70 Saturday. It doesn't last, but warmth would feel nice after the current long cold stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 ENSO definitely plays a factor but its effects have a decent lag time so you shouldn't put too much stock into dips and rises in ENSO for this summer's forecast.. Cool, thanks for the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Here is a facebook disco write up from a very respected met from STL named Dave Murray, regarded as one of the best. He thinks the cold-ish pattern could linger into mid and late April before we bust it. THATS A PRETTY LATE MARCH SNOW...EXCELLENT FOR SNOWBALLS AND MAYBE...MAYBE THE LAST SNOW-PERSON OF THE SEASON. HEAVY AND WET...STICKING POWER...THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE SPRING TREES THAT AR IN BUD BUT NOT BLOOM...THIS WILL SLOW THEM DOWN...THAT IS A GOOD THING...THE TREE'S IN BLOOM...MAGNOLIA, RED BUD, BRADFORD PEAR, SOME CHERRIES...THOSE BLOOMS WILL TURN BROWN AND QUICKLY FALL OFF...BUT THIS SNOW WILL HAVE GREAT INSOLATION POWER TO PROTECT FROM COLD...THE OTHER GOOD NEWS THERE IS NO BIG COLD COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...OVERALL...NOTHING CHANGES IN THE PATTERN...SPRING HAS HEADED SOUTH AS WINTER FLEXES ITS MUSCLES ONCE AGAIN...THIS IS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND A COLD PATTERN THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN COMING OUT OF THE THIRD FALSE SPRING...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THIS COULD GO INTO MID AND EVEN LATE APRIL BEFORE WE REALLY BREAK......SUNDAY IS DRY--BUT COLD...ANOTHER SYSTEM...RAIN AND SNOW PLAYS WITH US MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES...COLD ALL WEEK LONG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z GFS still has an interesting system next weekend. Strong surface low with pretty decent moisture return for this time of year and a quality EML advecting northeast into the OV/Lakes region. Capping could be a concern but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z GFS still has an interesting system next weekend. Strong surface low with pretty decent moisture return for this time of year and a quality EML advecting northeast into the OV/Lakes region. Capping could be a concern but something to watch. The 0z ECMWF also had a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z GFS still has an interesting system next weekend. Strong surface low with pretty decent moisture return and a quality EML advecting northeast into the OV/Lakes region. Capping could be a concern but something to watch. Definitely agree with the potential with this at this range, but look at hr. 384 of the current run. Everyone from Memphis ne to Cincinnati and nw to St. Louis gets washed away. What I take from this is that we are going to have a continuing battle with spring and a lingering winter that may result in a very active month for precip and svr wx. Spring of 2010 had a slow start as you mentioned previously. Nature balances out. We have drought in the central and southern plains that may push the dryline farther east. Copious abundant low level moisture will only advect northward with time. La Nina ending winters tend to increase the chance of svr wx in the Midwest. April, May, and June look to be quite interesting in our region from this perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 0z ECMWF also had a system. Yeah just saw that. Thicknesses would suggest a rather warm column and probably some good moisture return. It is slower than the 12z GFS but details aren't important yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Definitely agree with the potential with this at this range, but look at hr. 384 of the current run. Everyone from Memphis ne to Cincinnati and nw to St. Louis gets washed away. What I take from this is that we are going to have a continuing battle with spring and a lingering winter that may result in a very active month for precip and svr wx. Spring of 2010 had a slow start as you mentioned previously. Nature balances out. We have drought in the central and southern plains that may push the dryline farther east. Copious abundant low level moisture will only advect northward with time. La Nina ending winters tend to increase the chance of svr wx in the Midwest. April, May, and June look to be quite interesting in our region from this perspective. Yeah it is a very wet run in the OV. March is almost through but history tells us to really keep an eye to the sky in April in Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z GFS still has an interesting system next weekend. Strong surface low with pretty decent moisture return for this time of year and a quality EML advecting northeast into the OV/Lakes region. Capping could be a concern but something to watch. If the 12z GFS were to verify I would be chasing saturday/sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If the 12z GFS were to verify I would be chasing saturday/sunday. I'd be back in time for a Sunday chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I'd be back in time for a Sunday chase. very nice, I like saturday in KS/OK on the 12z GFS, dying to get out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 still too early but this might be a problem...stupid advecting EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Let your imagination run wild to think what would happen if those two systems were to phase on the Euro at 240hr out west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Let your imagination run wild to think what would happen if those two systems were to phase on the Euro at 240hr out west lol Lol I saw that too. I was like, damn why doesn't the Euro go to 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Gotta love the long range GFS. Pumps a fantasy PNA ridge that is unverifiable. Yeah, today's 18z GFS run is off-the-charts cold for early April. Of course this is 180+ hours, and I'm not suggesting at all that it will verify...but some of the model images are just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow guaging the 18z run as well as several other the past day or two it would appear that by week 2 in April a rather massive arctic outbreak looms on the horizon. It could be overdone to some degree but it certainly appears cold enough to kill anything that sprouts and would not surprise me to see snow fly. March now marks the 4th consecutive month below average temps and cannot see any reason to expect any flip over the next 2 to 4 months. As much as I hate the CPC outlook and rarely agree with it, I will say that based on a mod/weak nina and very wet soils to our northwest, this screams cooler than normal pattern of course minus the "warm surges" that a pattern like this produces. I hate to say it but this may be the year that snow flurries fly in may and I think we challenge records for top 10 coldest springs at some upper midwest locales. Guess what else, remember the year of no summer? We may be mimmicking it again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow guaging the 18z run as well as several other the past day or two it would appear that by week 2 in April a rather massive arctic outbreak looms on the horizon. It could be overdone to some degree but it certainly appears cold enough to kill anything that sprouts and would not surprise me to see snow fly. March now marks the 4th consecutive month below average temps and cannot see any reason to expect any flip over the next 2 to 4 months. As much as I hate the CPC outlook and rarely agree with it, I will say that based on a mod/weak nina and very wet soils to our northwest, this screams cooler than normal pattern of course minus the "warm surges" that a pattern like this produces. I hate to say it but this may be the year that snow flurries fly in may and I think we challenge records for top 10 coldest springs at some upper midwest locales. Guess what else, remember the year of no summer? We may be mimmicking it again this year. 1816? Highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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