A-L-E-X Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Albeit similar, the track and storm type for Dec 2004 does not fit the type we may see this wknd...and apparently Nov 87 happened to produce those snow totals not due to track but banding? (I forgot who mentioned it earlier) So in reality this type of setup is most likely extremely rare and I bet it doesn't end up happening as modeled by the euro this aftn... Im fascinated by which model wins out with this one and if it sets a pattern for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 We should be happy just to have something to track at this point lol. Agree. It's about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? I will be here! So count me in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? Count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Count me in. me too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I will be up working anyway, so of course I will be here. you guys staying up with me for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Not me, I have a feeling tonight's EURO will be a big disappointment, but that's OK this far out. The EURO 3-4 days from now will be more interesting to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? Yeah, i might do tonight.. Especially if the GFS 0Z gives a good signal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 finally checked out the 12z... interesting trough setup in the east and ridge in the west. tons of rain Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Tombo, I didn't see if you posted precip totals, but this doesn't look too bad for us here in E PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Tombo, I didn't see if you posted precip totals, but this doesn't look too bad for us here in E PA? phl gets about 0.25" with less to the north. dc gets about 0.75" while new england gets plastered. nj/pa/nyc is the screw zone on this particular run of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Tombo, I didn't see if you posted precip totals, but this doesn't look too bad for us here in E PA? for your area 1-3, its prob .1-.2 qpf, the .2 is further south towards reading, .1 up by hazleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 for your area 1-3, its prob .1-.2 qpf, the .2 is further south towards reading, .1 up by hazleton Last winter all over again so far. Let's hope it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Last winter all over again so far. Let's hope it gets better. Would you rather it show 12" 7 days away? This isn't last winter, there is a mod-strong La Nina and that teleconnects to a SE Ridge which is gone on this model. Why is it gone? Or is the model just getting rid of it too quickly.. I'm trying not to get too excited/depressed for model runs 7 days out, but it's not too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Last winter's Dec. 19th storm looked pretty far south until the final days, too...hopefully we can get a similar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Would you rather it show 12" 7 days away? This isn't last winter, there is a mod-strong La Nina and that teleconnects to a SE Ridge which is gone on this model. Why is it gone? Or is the model just getting rid of it too quickly.. I'm trying not to get too excited/depressed for model runs 7 days out, but it's not too promising. It's not gone, the tremendous blocking is just suppressing it. The model's solution actually makes sense, if the features were to be realized. The block is strong, the shortwave is able to amplify as the ridge builds in the west, and the rapid deepening occurs off the coast. How these specific features are handled will be more important than the southeast ridge itself. We have a pretty good signal for very strong blocking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? Doubt it. I have the 4:00AM wake up call again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Does anyone think that the 12z ECMWF is reasonable at least up to the point where the storm reaches the VA coast by hour 144? I noticed that for the last 4 days, the 12z ECMWF runs were consistent with at least some storm just off the Mid Atlantic coast around Sunday at 12z, while showing a stronger storm well offshore with some kind of negative tilt to it around Monday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Does anyone think that the 12z ECMWF is reasonable at least up to the point where the storm reaches the VA coast by hour 144? I noticed that for the last 4 days, the 12z ECMWF runs were consistent with at least some storm just off the Mid Atlantic coast around Sunday at 12z, while showing a stronger storm well offshore with some kind of negative tilt to it around Monday at 12z. Yeah I think most models (exception being the GFS) have a storm around the coast by that time. The difference of course is what happens after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Does anyone think that the 12z ECMWF is reasonable at least up to the point where the storm reaches the VA coast by hour 144? I noticed that for the last 4 days, the 12z ECMWF runs were consistent with at least some storm just off the Mid Atlantic coast around Sunday at 12z, while showing a stronger storm well offshore with some kind of negative tilt to it around Monday at 12z. This goes back to the shortwave that comes out of Canada initially early in the run. It's not in the greatest RAOB area right now but will be tomorrow 00z, in a better spot. You can see the shortwave on the 21z SREF's towards 84 hrs. Watch the guidance handling of this feature earlier in the run--we need it to amplify as it's own entity like the ECMWF, not as part of the big ULL over the Northeast like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 you guys staying up with me for the euro? Are you doing pbp in the NYC/PHL regional subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Are you doing pbp in the NYC/PHL regional subforum? im gonna make a 0z euro thread, i think thats easier and confines it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 We need a 0z GFS thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 00z NAM is similar to the GFS in it's handling of the shortwave out west that would be our clipper Dec 5. The huge ULL/entity over the east is also very overbearing and building a ridge over the Central US. The 12z Euro was weaker with this ridge and the downstream flow..and stronger with the shortwave out west. Basically, it's a bit of an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 We need a 0z GFS thread. Feel free to start one when the model initializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 00z NAM is similar to the GFS in it's handling of the shortwave out west that would be our clipper Dec 5. The huge ULL/entity over the east is also very overbearing and building a ridge over the Central US. The 12z Euro was weaker with this ridge and the downstream flow..and stronger with the shortwave out west. Basically, it's a bit of an outlier right now. So basically we can forget about any snow event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Feel free to start one when the model initializes. It's all you! You started the euro thread and look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 So basically we can forget about any snow event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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