12z Euro

[earthlight]

Surface low is inland over Maine at 186

[Allsnow]

Does anyone have a analog storm that gave DC and Boson mecs and not as extream in nyc and phl?

[hudsonvalley21]

Wow..the system retrogrades completely northwestward at 180hrs and is now slamming all of New England including Northern CT/MA/VT/NH with the CCB...surface low is still sub 985mb east of Boston

That is a good word ,retrograde This thing could sit there and blow it's self out. Now the big question of where this thing sets up shop. Model run madness.

[earthlight]

QPF from the storm...estimates:

DCA:0.75"

ACY:0.50"

PHL:0.25"

NYC:0.20"

Central LI: 0.50"

East End of LI:1.00"

BOS:1.25"

ORH:1.00"

[Quakertown needs snow]

Probably an all out blizzard in Boston at 174 hrs and north into Maine

still time to bring the B word further south

thanks for the euro info.. time to go look at the maps now and

[CooL]

So that is a miller B correct? and what about that second storm? lol

[ORH_wxman]

Does anyone have a analog storm that gave DC and Boson mecs and not as extream in nyc and phl?

Very uncommon...Nov 10-12, 1987 is one off the top of my head.

[Kaner587]

Does anyone have a analog storm that gave DC and Boson mecs and not as extream in nyc and phl?

I would say there probably aren't many if any at all...the issue is how exact the track has to be to completely wiff at PHL and NYC yet manage to clobber SW and NE of there. This also means the chances of this happening as modeled on the euro are very low. I'd expect more of a traditional I-95 special track moreso than this weird looking one. Granted it looks to get captured and brought back NNW but I just don't think it'll turn out that way.

[yoda]

Very uncommon...Nov 10-12, 1987 is one off the top of my head.

Veterans Day storm?

[gkrangers]

Well, they say someone always gets screwed in a Miller B, right?

[Kaner587]

Well, they say someone always gets screwed in a Miller B, right?

And its almost always DC and baltimore lol

[Quakertown needs snow]

Henry M. "Right now, I am not grabbing the Big Daddy hat." that means lock n load it

[Allsnow]

Very uncommon...Nov 10-12, 1987 is one off the top of my head.

Thanks Will. Its just very odd to see this, how similiar was 1987 to the 12z euro verbatiam?

[Manny]

Anything on the second storm yet?

[earthlight]

Trying to turn negatively tilted up the coast at 228..but the flow is very suppressed due to the last retrograding ULL.

[Huffwx]

Trying to turn negatively tilted up the coast at 228..but the flow is very suppressed due to the last retrograding ULL.

Hey, I know I'm begging in the wrong thread--do you mind telling where the low is (those of use DC south care)

[Chris L]

So we got two threats to watch in two weeks, that's pretty good.

[earthlight]

Wow..another big ULL this time over LA and the gulf coast at 240

[Chris L]

Wow..another big ULL this time over LA and the gulf coast at 240

That sounds pretty sweet.

Gulf Low Bomb?

Oh boy.

[Manny]

Wow..another big ULL this time over LA and the gulf coast at 240

and that's where it ends. Big time model-watching this whole week.

[earthlight]

Hey, I know I'm begging in the wrong thread--do you mind telling where the low is (those of use DC south care)

The surface low is 1012mb over Central Florida at 240 hrs..big closed upper level low over Central LA and the RH field is expanding a bit..would be close if extrapolated.

[WxUSAF]

The surface low is 1012mb over Central Florida at 240 hrs..big closed upper level low over Central LA and the RH field is expanding a bit..would be close if extrapolated.

Surface low over Central Florida smells like a fish to me if you extrapolate that out. But, still way off in la-la land, so lots of time for adjustments. Good to see that the pattern is primed for stormy and cold weather, most importantly.

[earthlight]

Surface low over Central Florida smells like a fish to me if you extrapolate that out. But, still way off in la-la land, so lots of time for adjustments. Good to see that the pattern is primed for stormy and cold weather, most importantly.

It's weird because the upper level low is going insane over LA and the heights are pumping up the east coast. Who knows. Goofy solution at that range..the 500mb chart is a laugher.

[NJwinter23]

Very uncommon...Nov 10-12, 1987 is one off the top of my head.

And that was more because of freak mesoscale banding features, rather then because of a track like that being shown on the 12z euro.

[bluewave]

The precip charts are free from the Euro today.

http://www.ecmwf.int...n!2010112912!!/

[H2Otown_WX]

This screws western CT and eastern NY, correct?

[Radders]

This screws western CT and eastern NY, correct?

LOL. Yes as depicted.

[ORH_wxman]

And that was more because of freak mesoscale banding features, rather then because of a track like that being shown on the 12z euro.

Yeah that track is tough to get...we saw something semi-similar on Dec 26-27, 2004 but not in that setup. That was more of a miller A that hit far SE VA and then hooked up and hit E NE. I think in this setup, we'll probably see a more straight forward Miller B development...though a retrograde solution cannot be discounted given the train wreck in the N ATL.

[CooL]

Yeah that track is tough to get...we saw something semi-similar on Dec 26-27, 2004 but not in that setup. That was more of a miller A that hit far SE VA and then hooked up and hit E NE. I think in this setup, we'll probably see a more straight forward Miller B development...though a retrograde solution cannot be discounted given the train wreck in the N ATL.

that would be very nice, nyc and new england own in miller B's

[H2Otown_WX]

Arctic outbreak cancel on this run. The PV retreats into northern Canada...oh well, I would rather have storminess with average temperatures.