Gorizer Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yikes, that might be the nail in the coffin..GFS is ugly.. What the... OK - I won't call my attorney just yet............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 nam was the 1 all week showing this as a non event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here is BGM's Forecasted snowfall as of now, but I don't think anyone is going to see 50% of these values... especially W of the Catskills. As for the current WS Watches across C NY... Go Directly to Jail, Do not Pass Go, Do not receive a Winter Weather Advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 About time they finally updated that map. Here's the local mets take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If the models are right then wktv is too high..Light precip = rain..And all the heavy stuff stays over new england.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 here is WBNG's snowfall forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 HPC ...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31 ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED SOLUTIONS...AND PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET BROKE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF NEW NAM AND GFS. THE DETAILS OF THOSE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT...SO HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE OTHER NEW RUNS WILL OFFER A MORE SOLID FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is shaping up to be an April Fool's storm after all, least for us CNY'ers. The models pulled off a joke and can't believe most of us fell for it. Should have known the long range NAM was being a straight shooter all-along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is shaping up to be an April Fool's storm after all, least for us CNY'ers. The models pulled off a joke and can't believe we fell for it. Should have known the NAM was being a straight shooter all-along. LOL......George and I didn't fall for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just when I thought the Euro couldn't look any worse after last night's 0z run, the 12z run just put that to shame. LP is way east and un-developed... Even E NY is left "fooled" with barely enough QPF for an Advisory... if that... QPF map upcoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Alright, cancel the QPF map... no need LOL... Draw a line from Middletown NY- Speculator NY- Plattsburgh NY... along and east of that line to the New England border you get .25-.50 QPF total thru 00z Saturday. West of that, .25 or less... This has to be one of the biggest vanishing acts inside of 24 hours I have ever seen...just wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 BGM did the deed of removing the WS Watches that were in place across C NY. Quite surprised they left the Warnings up across the western Catskills. Warning statement says 4-9... which is bare minimal warning criteria. Given the trends... 3-6" seems more likely. Would expect the Warnings to be replaced by Advisories down the road at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Albany just downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory . Let the damage control begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yea i dont knw what KALB is doing..They downgraded eny to wwa but kept it up for herkimer county..Before it was for 3-6" nows it 3-8" Unless they havent updated this area yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The reason for all of this. is the kicker we've been talking about the last few days.....The models finally saw it out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Im guessing they messed up since this is what it says under my wwa lol (even though they mention all the towns around here) LOCATIONS...LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN NEW YORK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And with that................BRING ON SPRING PLEASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL......George and I didn't fall for it. The strung out channel/pieces of vorticity, along with a lead wave and a kicker, always came front and center in keeping me toned down..... I was reading the NYC thread last night.....I was LMFAO!! People were looking at 850's around -.4 and thinking they had a shot at "good snows down to the coast".. :arrowhead: But TBH, I am really perplexed at today's 12z Euro....either it just had a most poorly timed HUGE burp....or it has shown that it's crown is tarnished...either way it is a head scratcher....and for the SNE folks, it may well have provided 4 days worth of April Fool's day jokes!!!!!! Some of those poor folks are running on 3hrs./day sleep over the last 5 days!! And rumor has it that toasters are in short supply.... :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 KALB THIS A QUICK HEADS UP...WE ARE DOING A MAJOROVERHAUL ON THE WINTER HEADLINES...AS THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE MAIN COASTAL CYCLONE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE QPF IS WAY DOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GUIDANCE/ECMWF/UKMET/AND ECMWF. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY GOING TO WARM AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY GET THE MOST SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HERE IS A BREAK DOWN OF THE CHANGES... 1.) A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE CTY /HIGHER TERRAIN/...CNTRL- NRN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT FOR 5-12 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKS. THE WARNING WILL NOW START AT MIDNIGHT INSTEAD OF 6 PM EDT...DUE TO THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. 2.) THE OTHER WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES WITH A GENERAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...CAPITAL REGION...SRN TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS/SRN TACONICS MAY BE IN THE 4-8" RANGE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVISORIES RUN FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT. 3.) THE VALLEYS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AFTER THE INITIAL BURST...SO PLACES LIKE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW END OF THE ACCUMULATION RANGE AT 3 OR 4 INCHES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE LATE MORNING AND PM...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S TO L40S.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Winter want's to go out with a bang that's for sure...Still it's 6 or 7 days out, so we will see. The models are showing big differences in track, timing, and how strong this will get. I know most of the models , with the Canadian leading the charge, show a decent snowstorm, where as the GFS is lagging back.... This upcoming end of week storm has a big uphill battle ahead of it. We have a very dry and suppressed situation over us right now.. The question is how far north will the precipitation be. The Canadian and WRF show a very amplified storm The Euro is in the middle with the GFS showing a very unimpressive storm That's pushed south and it looks fairly ragged do to the upper level wind shear. I think the GFS has the best handle on this thing right now.....I know storms this time of year can do strange things at the last second....I just don't think this storm is the one that will do it. The GFS is looking a bit better.....The problem is the The flow is going to be difficult to overcome......I could be wrong....but I don't see this storm phasing, which is what we need if we want a major storm. But it's still a few days out so we will see. The GFS is becoming very aggressive with this. Whereas, the Nam, DGEX, and Canadian show it going south and OTS. As usual the Euro doesn't know which camp to sit in so it stays in the middle. Andy and I have been talking about the set-up....I'm still not sold on this phasing....I think things are moving too fast and won't slow down enough to phase, also I think the GFS is showing way to much amplification..(I think it doesn't know it's the end of March/first of April) Andy told me, He's having trouble with the lifting to the north & northeast like many of the models are showing. Now the Jet does have that nice big U shape to it....If it were Jan or Feb...there would be no doubt that this would be a huge Nor-Easter..however, it's late march going into the first part of April....So the 540 line is not a good indicator of where the RA/SN line will be....This storm has a big hill to climb. The way I see it the four big things it must overcome, they are are: 1. Track of storm must be perfect 2. I think it's going to have to slow down to phase. 3. The sun angle this time of year is almost impossible to overcome. 4. Don't forget the kicker out west. It will all come down to timing.........It too early to say if we will have a storm or not......If I had to say right now...I would say no....However, if the current trend continues for the next 12-18 hrs...MAYBE. I tip my hat an offer kudos to Tornado Girl. In spite of some good conversations with her on this storm I let the models bias my forecast . Excellent call on two lows and phasing having to be be just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL......George and I didn't fall for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I tip my hat an offer kudos to Tornado Girl. In spite of some good conversations with her on this storm I let the models bias my forecast . Excellent call on "twin" lows and phasing having to be be just right. Why thank-you kind sir. this storm had a big hill to climb. We have all seen how the models shifted SE at the minute for most of the2010-2011 winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Snot ova till da fat lady sings......tomorrow....doesn't look promising at all but double reversals have happened....although unlikely....I know the fat lady and she said that she is gonna sing tomorrow morning...then it will be ova. BTW, radar in Eastern Mass and in Florida looks impressive.......I know I'm grasping at straws....but hey... I tip my hat an offer kudos to Tornado Girl. In spite of some good conversations with her on this storm I let the models bias my forecast . Excellent call on "twin" lows and phasing having to be be just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The strung out channel/pieces of vorticity, along with a lead wave and a kicker, always came front and center in keeping me toned down..... I was reading the NYC thread last night.....I was LMFAO!! People were looking at 850's around -.4 and thinking they had a shot at "good snows down to the coast".. :arrowhead: But TBH, I am really perplexed at today's 12z Euro....either it just had a most poorly timed HUGE burp....or it has shown that it's crown is tarnished...either way it is a head scratcher....and for the SNE folks, it may well have provided 4 days worth of April Fool's day jokes!!!!!! Some of those poor folks are running on 3hrs./day sleep over the last 5 days!! And rumor has it that toasters are in short supply.... :arrowhead: I agree completely..all great points. TBF I can't blame anyone, normally when the GFS and Euro agree that's the way to go. you normally go with them. I just thought the models would have caught on to the Kicker a little bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Snot ova till da fat lady sings......tomorrow....doesn't look promising at all but double reversals have happened....although unlikely....I know the fat lady and she said that she is gonna sing tomorrow morning...then it will be ova. BTW, radar in Eastern Mass and in Florida looks impressive.......I know I'm grasping at straws....but hey... Geek listen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M I agree completely..all great points. TBF I can't blame anyone, normally when the GFS and Euro agree that's the way to go. you normally go with them. I just thought the models would have caught on to the Kicker a little bit sooner. Isn't hindcasting great! :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Geek listen: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=it%27s%20not%20over%20till%20the%20fat%20lady%20sings&search=Search&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&spell=1 Isn't hindcasting great! :-0 It's always right...... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Whose hind are you forecasting anyway? BTW, the map on your website looks a little funky? 4-8 and 8-12 are same color and 2-5 and 4-8 are same color? Isn't hindcasting great! :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Don't know about y'all, but I'm going with The Weather Channel, the forecast experts. Changing their forecast is like changing the direction of a super cargo ship.........slow and steady. Maybe they're just trying to keep up the hype to rake in the dough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Don't know about y'all, but I'm going with The Weather Channel, the forecast experts. Changing their forecast is like changing the direction of a super cargo ship.........slow and steady. Maybe they're just trying to keep up the hype to rake in the dough. Andy can bust a forecast and still be closer than the Weather Channell on their BEST Forecasting ability. They could not hit a cow in the ass with a snowshovel let alone make an accumulation forecast that is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 0Z NAM is coming in and I think I hear the fat lady warming up. She might be singing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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