CNYWeather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday eveningthrough Friday evening... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued aWinter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Thursday evening through Fridayevening. * Locations...all of northeast Pennsylvania...Catskills...Susquehanna region of NewYork...the Upper Mohawk valley. * Hazards...heavy wet snow. * Accumulations...potential for at least 7 inches ofsnow. Highest accumulations are expected over the higher elevations. Less snow willfall in the valleys. * Timing...snow will develop Thursday evening andcontinue until Friday evening.The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday night and Friday morning. * Temperatures...from the upper 20s to mid 30s. * Winds...north to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts to25 mph possible Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow... BGM went wild with the WS Watch issuance. I was only expecting them to place the Catskill counties of Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan under a watch, but they included the Susquehanna and I-81 region (minus Onondaga) as well... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 325 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 ...LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... ONEIDA... UTICA... ROME... CORTLAND... NORWICH... ONEONTA... COOPERSTOWN... OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CATSKILLS...SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF NEW YORK...THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS SNOW WILL FALL IN THE VALLEYS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER TRAVEL AND COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW. DJN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Copied from the Central PA thread: http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page DT's map is pretty bullish out to ~I81 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 332 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NY AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FROM 00Z FRI TO 00Z SATURDAY. 12Z GFS...12Z EURO AND 12Z CMC SHOW A MAJOR CYCLONE EVOLVING ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/EURO/CMC SCENARIO BUT STILL DOES NOT DEVELOP THE CYCLONE QUICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT MOST OF C NY OR NE PA...JUST THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z EURO SCENARIOS ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NE PA AND SC NY. BOTH HAVE A 500 MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SW PA AND TRACKING E-NE THRU ERN PA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND FRI. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LO CRANKS UP TO SUB 990 MB SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY FRI AM. SNOW WUD SPREAD NORTHWARD AND ENGULF MOST OF C NY AND NE PA THU EVE...WITH THE HEAVIEST LIKELY OCCURING LATE THU NGT UNTIL PAST SUNRISE FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN FRI PM. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE 700 MB ISOTHERMS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV FROM 700 TO 300 MB WITH A SLOPED LAYER OF STRG FGEN FRCG BELOW ACRS NE PA TO SC NY AT 6Z FRI. THIS SIGNATURE SHOWS UP BEFORE THE 700 AND 500 MB LOWS CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN AS THEY WORK ACRS ERN PA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z AND 18Z FRI. HENCE THE GFS IS SPINNING UP THE LOW TO MID LVL CYCLONE AS IT RELEASES A LARGE SWATH OF NEGATIVE EPV. THIS WUD LEAD TO INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 IN/HR IN A BAND ACRS CNTRL AND ERN NY TO NE PA. I BELIEVE THE GFS SCENARIO IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR C NY AND NE PA AND WUD REQUIRE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FARTHER W THAN WHAT I HAVE DONE SO FAR. THE EURO AND CMC ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA BUT A LITTLE FARTHER E. BUT...SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH THE RELEASE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE VERY NON-LINEAR PROCESSES THAT OCCUR WITH CYCLOGENESIS...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S AND W THE HEAVY SNOW FALLS. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE SPINS UP IN THE LOW-MID LVLS AND THE RELEASE OF THE INSTABILITY ALOFT. ANY DELAY AND WE WUD TREND TOWARD THE NAMS IDEA. THIS WUD SPARE MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND DRAW A LINE FROM ABT RME NY TO TOW PA AND POINTS E FOR THE HEAVY SNOW IN MY GRIDS. WATCH ISSUED FROM SRN ONEIDA/MADISON/CORTLAND CO SOUTH TO BRADFORD CO PA AND POINTS E AND S THRU THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Copied from the Central PA thread: http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page DT's map is pretty bullish out to ~I81 also. DT's map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The high sun angle this time of year is only a problem when you are trying to get accumulation to start. Given that this storm is going to get going late Thursday night, everything will be very white by Friday morning with snow sticking to everything. With no dark surfaces aside from some roads the snow should have no trouble piling up during the day Friday. Ratios may be a bit higher with elevation, but the whole Capital District looks to get plastered with a lot of QPF as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 classic albany .WHERE IS THE GROUDHOG ? PROBABLY STILL SLEEPING...ASAPRIL FOOLS DAY MAY NOT BE FUNNY IF ONE DOESN/T LIKE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The high sun angle this time of year is only a problem when you are trying to get accumulation to start. Given that this storm is going to get going late Thursday night, everything will be very white by Friday morning with snow sticking to everything. With no dark surfaces aside from some roads the snow should have no trouble piling up during the day Friday. Ratios may be a bit higher with elevation, but the whole Capital District looks to get plastered with a lot of QPF as all snow. That's true....But, the sun angle still plays a part... because the sun stays up a lot longer now. However, the higher sun angle also effects the general circulation of the atmosphere. for example the 500 /700 Mb heights can have upper air inversions do to the way the air settles because of the higher sun angle. All of this has an effect on how much total snow will fall. If this was Jan or Feb we would have an epic snowstorm with much higher accumulations. On the computer monitor things look decent. How it plays out is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 KALB snowmap updated 4 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS 24-hour qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I want to see the 00Z's tonight and see what the Models have to say about the kicker out west......If that becomes a factor the storm should shift more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, to string us CNY'ers/WNY'ers (LOL!) a bit, here is the "hanging by a thread model run".....please take very little to no stock in the below images from this morning's CRAS....entertainment purposes only!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Oh, and for sheets and giggles....the 18zGFS ens. means dangles another carrot....at least for us I81 folk.... Again.....IMO, SYR will be lucky to record 2".....hope I'm wrong...in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Oh, and for sheets and giggles....the 18zGFS ens. means dangles another carrot....at least for us I81 folk.... Again.....IMO, SYR will be lucky to record 2".....hope I'm wrong...in a big way. They do look pretty......but I think you're right..... West of I 81 will be lucky to get an inch........The western Mohawk Valley might see 3 inches......This is not my forecast....Just me thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Oh, and for sheets and giggles....the 18zGFS ens. means dangles another carrot....at least for us I81 folk.... Again.....IMO, SYR will be lucky to record 2".....hope I'm wrong...in a big way. Lol, that's it, that's it... just let it all out. Get those Reverse Psychology engines working full-speed just like earlier this month for the March 6-7 storm. I recall many SYR faithful were lamenting over their mere 3" as darkness fell that Sunday Evening only to end up with 9-18" worth of snow across Onondaga County by Monday Morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 They do look pretty......but I think you're right..... West of I 81 will be lucky to get an inch........The western Mohawk Valley might see 3 inches......This is not my forecast....Just me thinking out loud. If this were to somehow provide a substantial hit to us over here in CNY....then this event from a (T+4 days and in) modeling standpoint, should be scrutinized to the T, so we can discernably determine what major "piece" of data was missing/missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If this were to somehow provide a substantial hit to us over here in CNY....then this event from a (T+4 days and in) modeling standpoint, should be scrutinized to the T, so we can discernably determine what major "piece" of data was missing/missed. Completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 After a high of 46 this afternoon, currently SN to nearly +SN and at least a half an inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 SREF snow/rain probabilty http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROB_15z/probtyploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Models are already busting with tonights storm..There are reports of low 30s and snow all the way into maryland..This wasn't suppose to happen...Places in OH and PA are getting a surprise..3" in 3hrs in cleveland..No sense worrying what models show anymore, most likey they will be wrong anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thinking aloud....as a weenie, I'm wondering if the large convection down along the Gulf coast earlier today, pumped some extra ridging along the EC...moreso than the models have shown????[/ ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NAM continues to edge ever so slowly to the west toward the general model consensus. Still leaves the outer fringes of the current WS Watch outline practically dry at T-24 Hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Pretty major shift west on the NAM tonight for ENY. Alb went from .2" at 12Z to 1.1" at 0Z. A bit more west and yehawwwww! Hopefully 0Z GFS doesn't do a mega west shift tonight.....hopefully model consensus is beginning. Let's get that precip shield expanding west too so CNY can get in on the fun. The NAM continues to edge ever so slowly to the west toward the general model consensus. Still leaves the outer fringes of the current WS Watch outline practically dry at T-24 Hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Pretty major shift west on the NAM tonight for ENY. Alb went from .2" at 12Z to 1.1" at 0Z. A bit more west and yehawwwww! Hopefully 0Z GFS doesn't do a mega west shift tonight.....hopefully model consensus is beginning. Let's get that precip shield expands west too so CNY can get in on the fun. yeah but too far east is still a fear too. the ukmet and euro have been trending slightly east. anyways the 00z suite tonight should be big. lets push this thing west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 SREF PROBABILITY FIELDS 1/4/8/12" snowfall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROB_21z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm going to bed, so I guess I'll see in the morning, but it will be an interesting suite. Did the NAM just start to catch on and a west trend is still possible......or did the NAM fully catch on and the globals will hold serve or maybe tick a bit east.....or did the NAM get carried away and will shift back a bit east.......I have a headache....off to bed. I'm counting on you guys to stay up late and make my birthday wish come true. yeah but too far east is still a fear too. the ukmet and euro have been trending slightly east. anyways the 00z suite tonight should be big. lets push this thing west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm going to bed, so I guess I'll see in the morning, but it will be an interesting suite. Did the NAM just start to catch on and a west trend is still possible......or did the NAM fully catch on and the globals will hold serve or maybe tick a bit east.....or did the NAM get carried away and will shift back a bit east.......I have a headache....off to bed. I'm counting on you guys to stay up late and make my birthday wish come true. what a nice birthday present this would be! we're definitely overdue for a late season snowstorm around here. the way this winter has gone we will see crazy shifts right up until the flakes start flying.. atleast we're prepared for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 A little story to brighten up your day... I am going to dub this the April Fools Divorce Storm. I finally convinced my wife to move out of the city and into the hilltowns of Schenectady County in the summer of 96. She wasn't too thrilled about it... she really hates snow and feared the winters. The following April... overnight on March 31st into April 1st, I don't think I have to tell you what kind of snowstorm we had. My road was impassable during the height of the storm. My wife drove her jeep into a ditch and had to walk 3/4 of a mile in blinding snow to get home. Then an hour later, walk 3/4 mile back to the main road to get my kids off the school bus, then 3/4 mile back to the house again. She then called me at work and told me in very colorful words what she thought of me after moving her out to the hilltowns. Oh... and HER BIRTHDAY IS APRIL 1st! Yeah. So the next morning, on her birthday, we had to dig her car out from underneath about two feet of concrete. Well - now it gets worse. I am out in Nevada this week and supposed to fly back to Albany on Friday. Who knows if I'll get back on Friday or not. But it really doesn't metter at this point. The hilltowns (my driveway) look to get crushed, and Im not there to snowblow. There's no way the wife can operate the tractor herself. She is looking forward to yet another Duanesburg birthday present... but this time she won't have me around to dig her out. Yeah. The April April Fools Divorce Storm. I'm looking for volunteers to escort me back into my own house whenever I finally do make it back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 RGEM http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html (make sure its 31st 0z) This is gonna be a very close call 4 my area, it always is lol I should move 1 county to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 A little story to brighten up your day... I am going to dub this the April Fools Divorce Storm. I finally convinced my wife to move out of the city and into the hilltowns of Schenectady County in the summer of 96. She wasn't too thrilled about it... she really hates snow and feared the winters. The following April... overnight on March 31st into April 1st, I don't think I have to tell you what kind of snowstorm we had. My road was impassable during the height of the storm. My wife drove her jeep into a ditch and had to walk 3/4 of a mile in blinding snow to get home. Then an hour later, walk 3/4 mile back to the main road to get my kids off the school bus, then 3/4 mile back to the house again. She then called me at work and told me in very colorful words what she thought of me after moving her out to the hilltowns. Oh... and HER BIRTHDAY IS APRIL 1st! Yeah. So the next morning, on her birthday, we had to dig her car out from underneath about two feet of concrete. Well - now it gets worse. I am out in Nevada this week and supposed to fly back to Albany on Friday. Who knows if I'll get back on Friday or not. But it really doesn't metter at this point. The hilltowns (my driveway) look to get crushed, and Im not there to snowblow. There's no way the wife can operate the tractor herself. She is looking forward to yet another Duanesburg birthday present... but this time she won't have me around to dig her out. Yeah. The April April Fools Divorce Storm. I'm looking for volunteers to escort me back into my own house whenever I finally do make it back... Is it too late to fly her out of there? ...............I will watch your back....But, you had better bring her a great gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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