Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That new pic is Hella Good Andy. ...and so might be this snowstorm in ENY , if you believe the 0Z runs. Though we still have the NAM refusing to budge at 6Z. KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That new pic is Hella Good Andy. ...and so might be this snowstorm in ENY , if you believe the 0Z runs. Though we still have the NAM refusing to budge at 6Z. I could see that KALY heavy band in the S'rn Catskills expanded a bit more NNE to include W'rn Albany County. Sort of leaning that way now but not ready to come up with any #s just yet since the bulk of the heaviest QP and UVM will be circa early Fri AM thru about Noon. NAM is trending west; still not in its "time-zone" wheelhouse at the moment (IMO). 12z run moreso 18z-00z runs of it will be more telling IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 That new pic is Hella Good Andy. ...and so might be this snowstorm in ENY , if you believe the 0Z runs. Though we still have the NAM refusing to budge at 6Z. LOL Rick! I was reading over in the NE thread.....thanks for thinking of me during the GFS west shift!! BGM-SYR will get fringed, IMO....This is a Catskill Crusher..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think the SE dacks get crushed on this one, would not shock me if this trends a tad more west. Deciding if I should head north on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Another snow day around these parts will really mess up the school calendars. The last time I had a snowday on my birthday was 4/1/97. Got about 15" at my house, except almost none under the trees. Twas a wet sloppy mess. The ground should be a little colder with this one as long as a west trend doesn't start. Will be interesting to see if and when the NAM starts to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Another snow day around these parts will really mess up the school calendars. The last time I had a snowday on my birthday was 4/1/97. Got about 15" at my house, except almost none under the trees. Twas a wet sloppy mess. The ground should be a little colder with this one as long as a west trend doesn't start. Will be interesting to see if and when the NAM starts to join the party. If you want very heavy snow up here you want a west track so that you're in the best UVM, heaviest precip rates and therefore the best dynamic cooling. Weaker system and/or more east track (towards the BM) and the snow (accumulation) threat will be less especially for elevations AaB 1K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The ground was essentially frozen solid yet when I left home on Monday morning. On sunny days the upper few inches would get muddy, but overall .... sticking should not be an issue. Yeah I was in Saugerties for the 1997 storm and it was like 34F heavy snow - leaving 8.5 inches of mush.... But I went into the Catskills nearby (North/South Lake) and there was three feet of fairly powdery quality snow. I went up there several times that week and cross country skied. That was about a 15 minute drive up the mountain so the best of both worlds...... Another snow day around these parts will really mess up the school calendars. The last time I had a snowday on my birthday was 4/1/97. Got about 15" at my house, except almost none under the trees. Twas a wet sloppy mess. The ground should be a little colder with this one as long as a west trend doesn't start. Will be interesting to see if and when the NAM starts to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM still = ..................stubborn little bugger of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The ground was essentially frozen solid yet when I left home on Monday morning. On sunny days the upper few inches would get muddy, but overall .... sticking should not be an issue. Yeah I was in Saugerties for the 1997 storm and it was like 34F heavy snow - leaving 8.5 inches of mush.... But I went into the Catskills nearby (North/South Lake) and there was three feet of fairly powdery quality snow. I went up there several times that week and cross country skied. That was about a 15 minute drive up the mountain so the best of both worlds...... It's been staying that way sofar this week and I see no reason it will change before the storm. The top inch or 2 may thaw in the sun during the day but refreezes at night. Any shaded areas have not been thawing at all. That might change a bit today and tomorrow, but not significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yep....light snow this time of year usually equals no accumulation. It might be an all or nothing kind of deal. Andy....what's your take on the NAM, we're getting into it's best range, ehhh? If you want very heavy snow up here you want a west track so that you're in the best UVM, heaviest precip rates and therefore the best dynamic cooling. Weaker system and/or more east track (towards the BM) and the snow (accumulation) threat will be less especially for elevations AaB 1K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If you look closely around 42 hours..it is trying form a low further west...but then it just defaults toward the old low and jumps it all east... The model is conflicted and may all of a sudden revert toward the other models on a subsequent run. NAM still = ..................stubborn little bugger of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Or it could pull a coup and be right with the flatter solution idea. With the last storm it's the only model that got it right here in the CD. I guess it picked up on the convection in PA robbing our moisture. This is a totally different scenario but it makes me a bit worried when it won't budge too much this close to the event. If you look closely around 42 hours..it is trying form a low further west...but then it just defaults toward the old low and jumps it all east... The model is conflicted and may all of a sudden revert toward the other models on a subsequent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Or it could pull a coup and be right with the flatter solution idea. With the last storm it's the only model that got it right here in the CD. I guess it picked up on the convection in PA robbing our moisture. This is a totally different scenario but it makes me a bit worried when it won't budge too much this close to the event. I don't think the NAM is correct; unlike the other globals which unanimously agree on forming a distinct second low pressure that rides up the coast, the NAM insists that it's basically one storm that decays off the New England coastline, then gets reinvigorated with new energy from the second shortwave diving through the Plains. This solution seems dubious given the disagreements with the globals: remember, the NAM is not really a medium-range synoptic forecasting model, it's for mesoscale considerations like convective banding and temperature profiles. That being said, it did pretty well with the 3/24 storm in terms of staying well south of the GFS track, which was the right idea. I would be getting excited near ALB, to be honest. Looking much better for you guys now than down here...0z ECM has the deformation band hammering the CD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If you look closely around 42 hours..it is trying form a low further west...but then it just defaults toward the old low and jumps it all east... The model is conflicted and may all of a sudden revert toward the other models on a subsequent run. Or it could pull a coup and be right with the flatter solution idea. With the last storm it's the only model that got it right here in the CD. I guess it picked up on the convection in PA robbing our moisture. This is a totally different scenario but it makes me a bit worried when it won't budge too much this close to the event. H700 U/A low is still down near NYC tracking NE...def band/zone still over ENY and WNE. Still not in its wheelhouse time period either again 18z-00z runs will be then we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 IMO, the NAM has trended (west/stronger/getting a clue) toward the globals and will continue to do so. Some of the globals are overamped, I suspect, so a consensus of the 12z globals, again, IMO, will be the verifying LP track (give or take 30 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Afternoon conference call with my compadres. Something about "circling the wagons". ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM looks decent....not a huge hit...but decent. IMO, the NAM has trended (west/stronger/getting a clue) toward the globals and will continue to do so. Some of the globals are overamped, I suspect, so a consensus of the 12z globals, again, IMO, will be the verifying LP track (give or take 30 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z GFS backed off on QPF but is still a nice hit. Looks a tad west but not as wrapped up. Upper air dynamics aren't quite as impressive. Overall set up looks good, details won't be ironed out yet. Let the model flip flopping (with the details) begin.......I mean continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 To me the 7H low position looks good on the 12Z GFS even if it does take its uber slug of qpf into SNE. The best Deformation etc. is more for you guys in ENY and far western NE. I have to get going...be back online from western NC tonight. Afternoon conference call with my compadres. Something about "circling the wagons". ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 To me the 7H low position looks good on the 12Z GFS even if it does take its uber slug of qpf into SNE. The best Deformation etc. is more for you guys in ENY and far western NE. I have to get going...be back online from western NC tonight. Have a safe trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Relevent 24-Hour QPF off the 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any takers on a sequel next week, same time, same channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They would be ridonculous if it verified!!!!!!!!! Snowiest April on record??????? Any takers on a sequel next week, same time, same channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Euro really has it out for the Catskills... all in all, not much deviation from previous runs, maybe a tad east of last night's 0z run. Still a East Central & Eastern NY special on tap is appears... BGM is going to need to post some WSW's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Euro really has it out for the Catskills... all in all, not much deviation from previous runs, maybe a tad east of last night's 0z run. Still a East Central & Eastern NY special on tap is appears... BGM is going to need to post some WSW's... It's a little bit more to the east....but that could be just a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's starting to look interesting for Eastern NYS and into New England. Looks like the CD will have rain tomorrow afternoon switching to snow during the evening which may be fairly heavy by Friday Morning...especially for the higher elevations. (Remember elevation is your friend this time of year). But, Not only are the models having a tough time with this. But we are also dealing with the Late March-Early April issues I talked about yesterday. Sun angle and temperature profiles. To early too mention snow amounts...But places in eastern NY above 1000 feet will most likely be breaking out the plows and throwers again. Sould have a better idea by tonight..... we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They would be ridonculous if it verified!!!!!!!!! Snowiest April on record??????? Amazing. This winter doesnt seem that it wants to end any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I guess I'm postponing the drive to Maine from Fri. to Sat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Euro has another powerhouse LP same time next week just like the 12z GFS has. Only difference is the Euro takes the Sub 980mb LP thru the Saint Lawrence Valley... The Euro QPF output has the look of a possible squall line along the front as it crosses C & E NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Euro has another powerhouse LP same time next week just like the 12z GFS has. Only difference is the Euro takes the Sub 980mb LP thru the Saint Lawrence Valley... The Euro QPF output has the look of a possible squall line along the front as it crosses C & E NY... Alright, for anyone interested in next week's potential event, I did the honors of starting another thread... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/16294-april-5-7-upstate-ny-north-country-spring-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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