CNYWxGuy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The new 0z Euro tracks a powerhouse LP just inside the 40-70 BM. NYC Metro and SNE are clocked with a would-be 8+... Its going to come down to the timing of the phase, hopefully the 0z GFS is into something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The new 0z Euro tracks a powerhouse LP just inside the 40-70 BM. NYC Metro and SNE are clocked with a would-be 8+... Its going to come down to the timing of the phase, hopefully the 0z GFS is into something... the 0z gfs would be my model of choice if i had to pick an outcome would love to see that happen....unfortunately i have no say in the matter -lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The GFS is becoming very aggressive with this. Whereas, the Nam, DGEX, and Canadian show it going south and OTS. As usual the Euro doesn't know which camp to sit in so it stays in the middle. Andy and I have been talking about the set-up....I'm still not sold on this phasing....I think things are moving too fast and won't slow down enough to phase, also I think the GFS is showing way to much amplification..(I think it doesn't know it's the end of March/first of April) Andy told me, He's having trouble with the lifting to the north & northeast like many of the models are showing. Now the Jet does have that nice big U shape to it....If it were Jan or Feb...there would be no doubt that this would be a huge Nor-Easter..however, it's late march going into the first part of April....So the 540 line is not a good indicator of where the RA/SN line will be....This storm has a big hill to climb. The way I see it the four big things it must overcome, they are are: 1. Track of storm must be perfect 2. I think it's going to have to slow down to phase. 3. The sun angle this time of year is almost impossible to overcome. 4. Don't forget the kicker out west. It will all come down to timing.........It too early to say if we will have a storm or not......If I had to say right now...I would say no....However, if the current trend continues for the next 12-18 hrs...MAYBE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z Euro brings significant snow to the Catskills / Capital District / GFL region and points south and east. LP track is just inside the 40-70 BM... over Nantucket... into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z Euro brings significant snow to the Catskills / Capital District / GFL region and points south and east. LP track is just inside the 40-70 BM... over Nantucket... into the Gulf of Maine. Any meaningful qpf for BGM/SYR corridor?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Any meaningful qpf for BGM/SYR corridor?? The cutoff is razor sharp... Looks like .50 QPF at BGM and about .25 at SYR. The Southern Catskills to GFL and points S & E are over 1.00... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 The GFS is becoming very aggressive with this. Whereas, the Nam, DGEX, and Canadian show it going south and OTS. As usual the Euro doesn't know which camp to sit in so it stays in the middle. Andy and I have been talking about the set-up....I'm still not sold on this phasing....I think things are moving too fast and won't slow down enough to phase, also I think the GFS is showing way to much amplification..(I think it doesn't know it's the end of March/first of April) Andy told me, He's having trouble with the lifting to the north & northeast like many of the models are showing. Now the Jet does have that nice big U shape to it....If it were Jan or Feb...there would be no doubt that this would be a huge Nor-Easter..however, it's late march going into the first part of April....So the 540 line is not a good indicator of where the RA/SN line will be....This storm has a big hill to climb. The way I see it the four big things it must overcome, they are are: 1. Track of storm must be perfect 2. I think it's going to have to slow down to phase. 3. The sun angle this time of year is almost impossible to overcome. 4. Don't forget the kicker out west. It will all come down to timing.........It too early to say if we will have a storm or not......If I had to say right now...I would say no....However, if the current trend continues for the next 12-18 hrs...MAYBE. Completely agree, TG. And even though our system is being better sampled now, and will be, moreso, over the next few runs, the all important "kicker/ridge builder" will still be coarsely sampled until our main shortwave crashes into the base at h500. Still room either way, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z Euro brings significant snow to the Catskills / Capital District / GFL region and points south and east. LP track is just inside the 40-70 BM... over Nantucket... into the Gulf of Maine. UK does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z Euro brings significant snow to the Catskills / Capital District / GFL region and points south and east. LP track is just inside the 40-70 BM... over Nantucket... into the Gulf of Maine. Dumb question, whats BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Completely agree, TG. And even though our system is being better sampled now, and will be, moreso, over the next few runs, the all important "kicker/ridge builder" will still be coarsely sampled until our main shortwave crashes into the base at h500. Still room either way, of course. UK does the same. Here's the UK perspective of things...apologies for the 4 panel maps but its the best way to show most of the data.. 1st panel map: Surface isobars and wind, 850 therms in 2c increments and QPF (6hr total). Date and valid times in upper left. Clockwise from left to right forecast hours 24, 30, 36 and 42 hrs 2nd 4panel: first 3 panels same as above except for forecast hours 48, 60, 72 hours. Lower right panel is forecast PIVA valid for 72 hours FRI Am very good (UBER?) PIVA across interior ENY and WNE. Possible significant snowband??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Now in spite of the latest 12z model runs (NAM aside) all consensizing on a YES or HIT. IMO its still too early to jump on board with any definite confidence. As noted by LEK and TG factors out west and the progressive nature of the flow (albeit amplitude IS forecast to increase) beg caution for at least another 24 hours. When a storm looks TOO GOOD to be true it probably is TOO GOOD to BE TRUE. I could still see a more easterly phasing possibility. I can also see a UK/GFS blend (more towards UK scenario) too but confidence in either one is low; I still tend (at least for another day) towards a phase but more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Benchmark Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS looks nice.. if only the precipitation shield would extend west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS looks nice.. if only the precipitation shield would extend west a bit The 700 hPa feature and 850 are good for some modest if not better DefZone/CCB snows for us, assuming the 18z GFS forecast and placement of such is right or one takes it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Me thinks this puppy is gonna get juiced up ........thus come up further west. I like ENY as a sweet spot now but my worry is more for a HV runner than a whiff to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I didn't knw there was a 18z uk, but i guess there is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hammer time for C & E NY on the 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 yea 00z GFS would be epic in eastern new york and most of vermont wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Raleigh QPF maps taking forever to load... Here is the 0z GFS 24-Hour QPF for our period across Upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm in Nevada on business and am scheduled to fly back on Friday. Please don't tell me I'm going to miss a historic April snowstorm AND have my flight cancelled to boot. Am I going to be a victim of my own weenie-ism???? Good Lord. :arrowhead: :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Everything has shifted west, you guys are looking golden. I am thinking of chasing in either the ALB area or Southern VT, or at our vacation house in the Poconos if it closes off a bit sooner. This looks like an awesome hit for my alma mater, Middlebury College in central VT. Starting to lose hope down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Everything has shifted west, you guys are looking golden. I am thinking of chasing in either the ALB area or Southern VT, or at our vacation house in the Poconos if it closes off a bit sooner. This looks like an awesome hit for my alma mater, Middlebury College in central VT. Starting to lose hope down here... im nervous about the ensembles still being east.. Euro will be big tonight. but yeah If it does end up like the 00z gfs then ALB or southern vermont would be a great spot.. i'd probably take a trip up to woodford state park at 2400' off route 9 east of Bennington, they always cash in big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 im nervous about the ensembles still being east.. Euro will be big tonight. but yeah If it does end up like the 00z gfs then ALB or southern vermont would be a great spot.. i'd probably take a trip up to woodford state park at 2400' off route 9 east of Bennington, they always cash in big. The 0z GFS produced 1.25-1.50 QPF as snow across S VT in just a 6-hour period as the LP crashed into S New England. Definately had 3-4" / Hr Thundersnow written all over it verbatim. No matter where this system tracks, it is going to have some impressive dynamics / forcing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z Euro is a solid 50-75 NM west of it's 12z run. Verbatim... it's a solid snowfall for extreme South Central NY / Eastern MV / Catskills / Capital District / Saratoga-Lake George region. QPF is >.75 in this region, dropping off markedly to the N & W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS clown map http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ENX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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