LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Does winter 2010-11 end with a big bang??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Bring it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I sure will not let it happen, if I have anything to say about it! Time to work in the yard and enjoy the mosquitos and the green grass and the birds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I sure will not let it happen, if I have anything to say about it! Time to work in the yard and enjoy the mosquitos and the green grass and the birds! I'll take snow any time I can get it. There will be plenty of time for that other stuff. BTW, the Yankees open at home next Thursday. What are the chances of having a snow out during that first series? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Not good lol Its gonna be hard enough getting snow into the valleys of central ny state, let alone nyc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 0z Euro with another great track for Upstate NY. LP track is right up the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain / I-95 up over LI and across SE New England. Everyone in the region is over .50 QPF, with most areas .75-1.25 QPF verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 Certainly a modest threat for this time period.....long way to go but having multiple GFS and Euro runs on our side (together) this far out is a bit out of the norm....But does that really lead to a higher potential one week out??? And remember, in early April, we'll probably need 850's around -4 or so do get daytime snows for the majority of any potential storm, to overcome strong BL warming..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS Ens mean (and a quick peak at the ind. members) shows quite a split....differences are in the timing of the trailing "kicker/phaser" wave....some jam our intial wave south of us, some phase nicely for us, and others phase early and provide the upper lakes region with the late season goodies...which leads to an unrealistic coupling of the mean LP and 850 temp profiles a week from now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Needless to say, it's going to be an interesting time period...especially coming out of a significant -NAO. I think this winter season still has some 'kick' left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Winter want's to go out with a bang that's for sure...Still it's 6 or 7 days out, so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'll take snow any time I can get it. There will be plenty of time for that other stuff. BTW, the Yankees open at home next Thursday. What are the chances of having a snow out during that first series? It almost always seems that there is some winter weather threat around the start of the MLB season. Certainly a modest threat for this time period.....long way to go but having multiple GFS and Euro runs on our side (together) this far out is a bit out of the norm....But does that really lead to a higher potential one week out??? And remember, in early April, we'll probably need 850's around -4 or so do get daytime snows for the majority of any potential storm, to overcome strong BL warming..... I would think that if there is a very strong and deep C/O low aloft from H7 upward someone will do very good on this system. Majority of late Mar and April (even the rare May snowfall) have a very dynamic cut-off low aloft. UK 00z run trending in similar solution as EC perhaps a bit more S & E on both primary and 2ndary LP's. Keep in mind UK tends to do very well with Spring cut-offs over the EUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'll take snow any time I can get it. There will be plenty of time for that other stuff. BTW, the Yankees open at home next Thursday. What are the chances of having a snow out during that first series? The yankee season opener has been snowed out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 HPC is still keeping the second system in play for us: And before this on day 5, lead system clips the southern parts of our region......awaiting the qpf map issuance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'm starting to lean towards the supression camp. Then again I have been off all this week so when I get back to work next week why not have a BB forecast for me to worry about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 CMC and ECM ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 CMC and ECM ens mean And 12z UKMET shows the threat at 144. Another one of those cases where the N. and S. streams are close to the phasing threshold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 0z GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Bombs away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 UK seems to like being the "extremist" during potential EC storms.....what a surprise! (But I likey!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 12z NAM looks loaded for an impressive system post 84..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 0z NoGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Today's (12z) UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Do you have the panel before this? Today's (12z) UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Do you have the panel before this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 latest gfs has nothing ukie is impressive though, but id have to think its warm to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Gapster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If anyone is interested I posted my thoughts on the Friday of this week event here: Wx4cast Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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