All things Solar

[aslkahuna]

While we are talking about the Dalton Minimum, the February issue of Sky and Telescope which is now out has a detailed article about Solar Superstorms including the 1859 Carrington event which occurred during the Dalton. BTW they note that the November 4, 2003 Superflare whose CME missed us could have caused major problems.

Steve

[tacoman25]

While we are talking about the Dalton Minimum, the February issue of Sky and Telescope which is now out has a detailed article about Solar Superstorms including the 1859 Carrington event which occurred during the Dalton. BTW they note that the November 4, 2003 Superflare whose CME missed us could have caused major problems.

Steve

I thought the Dalton Min had ended by 1859? 1810-1840 was the general time frame I have heard.

[Kevin Druff]

It's probably pretty basic for most of you guys, but I find all things related to solar and its effect on our weather so I enjoyed this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/is_siberian_snow_eastern_us_co.html

[mempho]

Has anyone done a study about how a minimum such as the Dalton or Maunder would theoretically affect average wintertime temps in North America? I've heard the 0.5*C per year of delay in the cycle theory but I've also recently read multiple sources that state that any prolonged minimum would likely cause a strong and prolonged -NAO regime and that the bulk of the cooling trend in North America and Europe would be felt in the winter months.

I've heard the anecdotal stories about things like the Mississippi River having ice flows in New Orleans, Biloxi Bay freezing over solid, the Thames freezing over, NY harbors freezing solid, etc...but I was just curious as to what such a minimum would actually look like, if it indeed, did occur.

[roardog]

Has anyone done a study about how a minimum such as the Dalton or Maunder would theoretically affect average wintertime temps in North America? I've heard the 0.5*C per year of delay in the cycle theory but I've also recently read multiple sources that state that any prolonged minimum would likely cause a strong and prolonged -NAO regime and that the bulk of the cooling trend in North America and Europe would be felt in the winter months.

I've heard the anecdotal stories about things like the Mississippi River having ice flows in New Orleans, Biloxi Bay freezing over solid, the Thames freezing over, NY harbors freezing solid, etc...but I was just curious as to what such a minimum would actually look like, if it indeed, did occur.

I guess I'm not real educated on the effects of such a minimum either, so to add to his questions, how is summer impacted?

[aslkahuna]

I thought the Dalton Min had ended by 1859? 1810-1840 was the general time frame I have heard.

The 1859-60 Solar Max was also a low maximum roughly equivalent to what we are expecting with cycle 24 (S&T has a prediction for 24 of a smoothed maximum of 60 with spikes as high as 90 {which would also mean lulls during max that could be as low as 30}). This is a matter of some concern since if 1859 could produce a blockbuster so can cycle 24. Consider too that two of the top 5 Gemags occurred in 1989 and 2003 and that had the flare of November 4, 2003 been on the CM with direct hit from its CME you would quite possibly still not have power.

Steve

[BethesdaWX]

The 1859-60 Solar Max was also a low maximum roughly equivalent to what we are expecting with cycle 24 (S&T has a prediction for 24 of a smoothed maximum of 60 with spikes as high as 90 {which would also mean lulls during max that could be as low as 30}). This is a matter of some concern since if 1859 could produce a blockbuster so can cycle 24. Consider too that two of the top 5 Gemags occurred in 1989 and 2003 and that had the flare of November 4, 2003 been on the CM with direct hit from its CME you would quite possibly still not have power.

Steve

Scary to think what the sun could really do to us in a matter of days...

[LakeEffectKing]

Scary to think what the sun could really do to us in a matter of days...

Geeze, my wife and I just got new Droids......don't need any of that from the Sun!!

[Go Kart Mozart]

Geeze, my wife and I just got new Droids......don't need any of that from the Sun!!

I have been a long-time lurker in the "Climate Change" topic for quite a while now. While I beleive it makes sense that man's contribution to CO2 will warm the planet somewhat, I am highly skeptical about the claims of dire results from this warming.

BUT...the more I read about the Carrington event, the more I believe that this is a grave threat to society. Once every 500 years is way too frequent for my tastes! I do not relish the thought of me and my family starving to death in an anarchic post-apocalypse world straight from a Mad Max movie.

Um, shouldn't we be allocating more resources to prepare for this as a priority far ahead of global warming?

[aslkahuna]

Scary to think what the sun could really do to us in a matter of days...

Try a matter of minutes. The first effects of a Superflare-a total communications blackout in the Sunlit hemisphere would occur 8.3 minutes after the event started on the Sun. Anywhere from 12 minutes after onset to one hour the very high end Cat 5 Radiation storm would begin with protons with relativistic energy of possibly 1 GeV or more creating a total blackout of communications and navigation systems using Polar paths (this would be day and nighsides), plus radiation hazards to aircraft flying Polar routes as well as astronauts during the high latitude segment of the ISS orbit or in deep Space, neutron bombardment would result in atmospheric chemical changes in Polar latitudes. Proton events take days to subside. Finally the big Tamale-the CME arriving about 18 hours after event onset would, within minutes, result in near global auroral activity and create all sorts of other problems including the major power grid failures which would primarily affect Canada, AK, The mid Atlantic, Great Lakes and New England States and the Pacific Northwest inland to Montana putting 130 million people in the dark for months or even years. Actually, this is just a brief summary of what could happen and a rough timeline. My forecast advisory I issued in March 1989 at Fort Huachuca took up 1.5 monitor screens to describe all of the expected effects (most of which verified). The energy impact of a Carrington event CME is estimated at about 10000 nuclear weapons or about that of a decent sized asteroid impact. Fortunately, the Sun doesn't put out flares like the M-class dwarfs such as UV Ceti or Proxima Centauri-one of that intensity would wipe out all life on Earth in minutes.

Steve

[aslkahuna]

I have been a long-time lurker in the "Climate Change" topic for quite a while now. While I beleive it makes sense that man's contribution to CO2 will warm the planet somewhat, I am highly skeptical about the claims of dire results from this warming.

BUT...the more I read about the Carrington event, the more I believe that this is a grave threat to society. Once every 500 years is way too frequent for my tastes! I do not relish the thought of me and my family starving to death in an anarchic post-apocalypse world straight from a Mad Max movie.

Um, shouldn't we be allocating more resources to prepare for this as a priority far ahead of global warming?

Considering that the November 4, 2003 flare could have done almost as much had its CME hit the Earth full on, the interval is probably somewhat less than 200 years. The top 5 Gemag storms, each of which was capable of serious problems, occurred in 1859, 1921, 1989, 1909, 2003 (listed in order of intensity) each produced Tropical auroras and of the last two the 1989 event was limited in effects due to fast action and a great deal of luck while we were able to mitigate the effects of the 2003 event which result in a spectaclur aurora in Arizona.

Steve

[Go Kart Mozart]

Considering that the November 4, 2003 flare could have done almost as much had its CME hit the Earth full on, the interval is probably somewhat less than 200 years. The top 5 Gemag storms, each of which was capable of serious problems, occurred in 1859, 1921, 1989, 1909, 2003 (listed in order of intensity) each produced Tropical auroras and of the last two the 1989 event was limited in effects due to fast action and a great deal of luck while we were able to mitigate the effects of the 2003 event which result in a spectaclur aurora in Arizona.

Steve

How were we able to mitigate the effects of the 2003 event?

[BethesdaWX]

Try a matter of minutes. The first effects of a Superflare-a total communications blackout in the Sunlit hemisphere would occur 8.3 minutes after the event started on the Sun. Anywhere from 12 minutes after onset to one hour the very high end Cat 5 Radiation storm would begin with protons with relativistic energy of possibly 1 GeV or more creating a total blackout of communications and navigation systems using Polar paths (this would be day and nighsides), plus radiation hazards to aircraft flying Polar routes as well as astronauts during the high latitude segment of the ISS orbit or in deep Space, neutron bombardment would result in atmospheric chemical changes in Polar latitudes. Proton events take days to subside. Finally the big Tamale-the CME arriving about 18 hours after event onset would, within minutes, result in near global auroral activity and create all sorts of other problems including the major power grid failures which would primarily affect Canada, AK, The mid Atlantic, Great Lakes and New England States and the Pacific Northwest inland to Montana putting 130 million people in the dark for months or even years. Actually, this is just a brief summary of what could happen and a rough timeline. My forecast advisory I issued in March 1989 at Fort Huachuca took up 1.5 monitor screens to describe all of the expected effects (most of which verified). The energy impact of a Carrington event CME is estimated at about 10000 nuclear weapons or about that of a decent sized asteroid impact. Fortunately, the Sun doesn't put out flares like the M-class dwarfs such as UV Ceti or Proxima Centauri-one of that intensity would wipe out all life on Earth in minutes.

Steve

I'd much rather take my chances with AGW

[LakeEffectKing]

Try a matter of minutes. The first effects of a Superflare-a total communications blackout in the Sunlit hemisphere would occur 8.3 minutes after the event started on the Sun. Anywhere from 12 minutes after onset to one hour the very high end Cat 5 Radiation storm would begin with protons with relativistic energy of possibly 1 GeV or more creating a total blackout of communications and navigation systems using Polar paths (this would be day and nighsides), plus radiation hazards to aircraft flying Polar routes as well as astronauts during the high latitude segment of the ISS orbit or in deep Space, neutron bombardment would result in atmospheric chemical changes in Polar latitudes. Proton events take days to subside. Finally the big Tamale-the CME arriving about 18 hours after event onset would, within minutes, result in near global auroral activity and create all sorts of other problems including the major power grid failures which would primarily affect Canada, AK, The mid Atlantic, Great Lakes and New England States and the Pacific Northwest inland to Montana putting 130 million people in the dark for months or even years. Actually, this is just a brief summary of what could happen and a rough timeline. My forecast advisory I issued in March 1989 at Fort Huachuca took up 1.5 monitor screens to describe all of the expected effects (most of which verified). The energy impact of a Carrington event CME is estimated at about 10000 nuclear weapons or about that of a decent sized asteroid impact. Fortunately, the Sun doesn't put out flares like the M-class dwarfs such as UV Ceti or Proxima Centauri-one of that intensity would wipe out all life on Earth in minutes.

Steve

Just for everyone's visual needs....nice animation of something quite benign compared to Steve's above scenario:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/4541101546/

[aslkahuna]

How were we able to mitigate the effects of the 2003 event?

They had learned some valuable lessons in 1989 as to what actions to take to protect the grids and since the October 29-30 2003 Gemag was well warned (my own aurora alerts were posted on WWBB and S2k calling for aurbos in all of the lower 48 states before sunset in the eastern US) they had time to take action to shift the grids to less exposed systems. Problem being that in a truly big event that might not be enough. Satellites such as the newer GPS have also been hardened.

Steve

[aslkahuna]

To give a clue, 90 minutes after onset of the 1859 storm, the aurora was seen as far south as Venezuela and Panama. One thing that should be noted is that all of what we are discussing is primarily confined to the effects in the US and Europe. In reality, such an event would be GLOBAL in nature and places like Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa would be dinged as well. When forecasting auroral visibility one needs to use the GEOMAGNETIC latitude of a location. Thus a place like Los Angeles would be more likely to see an aurora (except for city lights) than Madrid Spain since the former has a GM latitude further north than the latter. The Geomagnetic Equator is well south of the Geographic one in the South Atlantic and South America and well north in SE Asia. Thus, during an 1859 level Gemag it would be possible for locations just north of the Equator in SE Asia to see the Aurora Australis. This is probably what was seen in Singapore in 1921.

Steve

[DixieBlizzard]

To give a clue, 90 minutes after onset of the 1859 storm, the aurora was seen as far south as Venezuela and Panama. One thing that should be noted is that all of what we are discussing is primarily confined to the effects in the US and Europe. In reality, such an event would be GLOBAL in nature and places like Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa would be dinged as well. When forecasting auroral visibility one needs to use the GEOMAGNETIC latitude of a location. Thus a place like Los Angeles would be more likely to see an aurora (except for city lights) than Madrid Spain since the former has a GM latitude further north than the latter. The Geomagnetic Equator is well south of the Geographic one in the South Atlantic and South America and well north in SE Asia. Thus, during an 1859 level Gemag it would be possible for locations just north of the Equator in SE Asia to see the Aurora Australis. This is probably what was seen in Singapore in 1921.

Steve

I find this subject incredibly fascinating! Thanks for the great discussion.

[GaWx]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/05/the-sun-is-still-in-a-slump-still-not-conforming-to-noaa-consensus-forecasts/

"We’ve had a drop in solar activity again in December, The sunspot count is lower, but the really worrisome thing is the Ap geomagnetic index. The solar dynamo has now dropped to magnetic activity levels last seen in late 2009."

"The Ap value of 3 was last seen in late 2009 and early 2010, which bracketed the lowest value seen in 10 years (on the SWPC graph) of Ap=2 in December 2009. It was also the lowest value in the record then. SWPC has since revised their data upwards from 1 to 2 for December 2009."

[wxmx]

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.

That max would make it the 3rd lowest max on record since 1755, just above SC5 and SC6 maxes (Dalton minimum).

[Sunny and Warm]

Considering that NASA believes it may go lower still, and that we are counting more tinytim spots than were likely seen in the distant past, I'd say this cycle has Dalton written all over it. If L&P are correct, then cycle 25 will look like a Maunder cycle.

[aslkahuna]

Considering that NASA believes it may go lower still, and that we are counting more tinytim spots than were likely seen in the distant past, I'd say this cycle has Dalton written all over it. If L&P are correct, then cycle 25 will look like a Maunder cycle.

Actually, if the plots can be believed, there were no cycles during the Maunder, just an occasional spot or two every now and then. The H K studies of Solar type stars show that all activity essentially stops during a magnetic minimum which is what the Maunder was.

Steve

[Sunny and Warm]

Actually, if the plots can be believed, there were no cycles during the Maunder, just an occasional spot or two every now and then. The H K studies of Solar type stars show that all activity essentially stops during a magnetic minimum which is what the Maunder was.

Steve

Steve,

Thanks for the reply. As you know, F10.7 flux didn't stop during the Maunder, even if the spots did. Flux was reduced for sure based on proxy data, but the sunspot disconnect may be related to the L&P effect. In SC25, we may see flux at 110 and the sunspot number at 10. A flux of 110 should translate to a sunspot number of rough 60-65. In SC24, we should also note the occasional large spot with many occurrences of tiny spots. I recall reading that the Maunder was claimed to be unusual for its predominance of large spots, and few groups or tiny tims. Makes me wonder if these grand minimums all looked like this, and our technology lets us see it for the first time. We should also note that there are MANY more observers of the sun these days versus back in the day. A cloudy day in London or where ever back in 1702 meant no sunspot number. How many of the these one day spots would have been missed then?

[wxmx]

Steve,

Thanks for the reply. As you know, F10.7 flux didn't stop during the Maunder, even if the spots did. Flux was reduced for sure based on proxy data, but the sunspot disconnect may be related to the L&P effect. In SC25, we may see flux at 110 and the sunspot number at 10. A flux of 110 should translate to a sunspot number of rough 60-65. In SC24, we should also note the occasional large spot with many occurrences of tiny spots. I recall reading that the Maunder was claimed to be unusual for its predominance of large spots, and few groups or tiny tims. Makes me wonder if these grand minimums all looked like this, and our technology lets us see it for the first time. We should also note that there are MANY more observers of the sun these days versus back in the day. A cloudy day in London or where ever back in 1702 meant no sunspot number. How many of the these one day spots would have been missed then?

Telescopes nowadays use the same technology it has been used since Wolf started recording spots (in some cases, the exact same telescopes are still used). The International sunspot number uses a reduction factor to take into account the more observers nowadays and the weather (some observers might see sunspots, others might not), and is calibrated to emulate the sunspot count in the XIX century.

[Sunny and Warm]

Telescopes nowadays use the same technology it has been used since Wolf started recording spots (in some cases, the exact same telescopes are still used). The International sunspot number uses a reduction factor to take into account the more observers nowadays and the weather (some observers might see sunspots, others might not), and is calibrated to emulate the sunspot count in the XIX century.

I know, but if you read what you just wrote, you would have to agree that a lot of fudge factor is involved with each variable (observer quantity and quality, weather, technology). And then go back to the XVI and XVII centuries, and calculate it. I guess I have less faith in the guesses being made than you do. I would find it remarkable if the historical counts were within 25% of what they actually were, calibration or not.

[wxmx]

I know, but if you read what you just wrote, you would have to agree that a lot of fudge factor is involved with each variable (observer quantity and quality, weather, technology). And then go back to the XVI and XVII centuries, and calculate it. I guess I have less faith in the guesses being made than you do. I would find it remarkable if the historical counts were within 25% of what they actually were, calibration or not.

The systematic tally of sunspots began in the mid XIX century. Before that, records are from different sources and proxy calculated in some cases, the first solar cycles were estimated by Wolf. This discussion is like what happens with hurricanes, would a minimal tropical storm that lasts 24 hours be counted in 1900? The same would happen with sunspots in the XVII century. Technology advances, and so the data becomes more accurate. I wouldn't call it fudge. Do I think old stuff can be compared to new one? To a certain extent, and we should know the limitations of that. It's not the fault of the current state of things.

Also, remember that a tiny tim gets a very low score for sunspot number, so in the grand scheme of things they have little significant weight. Big groups of spots are given a lot more weight and were seen in the XVII century as they are today. Unless you are counting spotless days, which is a poor way to measure a solar cycle.

[Sunny and Warm]

The systematic tally of sunspots began in the mid XIX century. Before that, records are from different sources and proxy calculated in some cases, the first solar cycles were estimated by Wolf. This discussion is like what happens with hurricanes, would a minimal tropical storm that lasts 24 hours be counted in 1900? The same would happen with sunspots in the XVII century. Technology advances, and so the data becomes more accurate. I wouldn't call it fudge. Do I think old stuff can be compared to new one? To a certain extent, and we should know the limitations of that. It's not the fault of the current state of things.

Also, remember that a tiny tim gets a very low score for sunspot number, so in the grand scheme of things they have little significant weight. Big groups of spots are given a lot more weight and were seen in the XVII century as they are today. Unless you are counting spotless days, which is a poor way to measure a solar cycle.

Don't get me wrong, for the most part I agree with your comments. I'm just not convinced we know enough about the Maunder or Sporer to know what they were actually like and be able to realistically compare to this one. It could be that they were very similar to the Dalton and this one, and we just aren't able to reconstruct those earlier minimums better. Those cycles existed, but to what degree is the question.

[aslkahuna]

A M1.3/XF Proton Flare occurred in region 1149 (which is just rotating over the limb) at 28/0103Z. It was followed by a Type II sweep burst with a shock speed of 723 km/sec and a non event level proton enhancement at satellite altitudes.

Steve

[Kevin Druff]

A M1.3/XF Proton Flare occurred in region 1149 (which is just rotating over the limb) at 28/0103Z. It was followed by a Type II sweep burst with a shock speed of 723 km/sec and a non event level proton enhancement at satellite altitudes.

Steve

Translation, please.

[WXinCanton]

Its blank today..

[Wannabehippie]

Pretty impressive solar flares that are captured on a picture

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/01/28/5942494-double-whammy-on-the-sun

Its blank today..