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All things Solar


LakeEffectKing

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Solar radiance can certainty have a short/long term impact.  I believe NASA wrote a paper regarding TSI and it's overall temperature impact.  A 50 year Maunder min, if the climate was in radiative balance, could have a 0.3C impact decadally on the global temperature.  However, the impacts would be felt dis proportionally in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

In the grand scheme of global warming- 0.3 C is not really enough to offset the really poor effects.  Particularly if ECS is truly around 3C-4C. 

 

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

 

This modeling analysis, using RCP scenario 4.5, indicates a Maunder Minimum (MM) would slow down but not stop global warming. Temperatures catch up to the non-MM case when the sun returns to normal so long term effects are minimal. A Maunder Minimum could give some time though for improved mitigation/adaptation if it was used wisely and not squandered.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/jma/meehl_grand_solar_2013.pdf

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This modeling analysis, using RCP scenario 4.5, indicates a Maunder Minimum (MM) would slow down but not stop global warming. Temperatures catch up to the non-MM case when the sun returns to normal so long term effects are minimal. A Maunder Minimum could give some time though for improved mitigation/adaptation if it was used wisely and not squandered.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/jma/meehl_grand_solar_2013.pdf

Agree. The effects would be interesting to observe.

And I'm like you...it would be a gift from God if we use it wisely but I'm not sure we will if it happens.

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Agree. The effects would be interesting to observe.

And I'm like you...it would be a gift from God if we use it wisely but I'm not sure we will if it happens.

I guess we will know by the middle of this upcoming cycle 2019 or so if we are getting into a decadal min.

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Yea...the projections made in that study are based on a climate model. We know climate model projections are shaky ground.

If any of the claims are true, you would think that similar solar levels compared to a Maunder Minimum could be deduced without needing a climate model. I don't know what to think!

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This blog goes into some detail - A 60-80% reduction in solar cycle activity is estimated to lower solar forcing by roughly 0.1 W/m2 - similar to only a couple of years of CO2 build-up - and any modest relief would be temporary as CO2 will persist in the atmosphere long after the sun has returned to normal.

 

http://climatephys.org/2015/07/12/a-blessing-from-a-star-little-ice-ages-and-the-fate-of-climate/

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This is just awful, it's on the verge of going mainstream and killing our chances. The 2008 minimum contributed to a sense that solar forcing was more important as a climate driver than it really is. The main driver of that event was ocean heat sequestration caused by la nina/-PDO.

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This is just awful, it's on the verge of going mainstream and killing our chances. The 2008 minimum contributed to a sense that solar forcing was more important as a climate driver than it really is. The main driver of that event was ocean heat sequestration caused by la nina/-PDO.

 

Where do you come up with this stuff?

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This is just awful, it's on the verge of going mainstream and killing our chances. The 2008 minimum contributed to a sense that solar forcing was more important as a climate driver than it really is. The main driver of that event was ocean heat sequestration caused by la nina/-PDO.

 

 

I totally disagree. History would argue against that assertion.  But the question is in what way has solar had an impact?  Certainly cooling has taken place in the past but is it due to other factors that low solar triggers: increased volcanic activity, increased high latitude blocking, ocean oscillation affects...etc.

 

The study of the impacts of solar activity on the climate is still in it's infancy.  So, I do not think we really know. It might even be that there are times it has large impacts & at other minimal. Either way it's way to premature to say "The 2008 minimum contributed to a sense that solar forcing was more important as a climate driver than it really is."

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What a shame, you guys are still living in the past.

 

Ever think that the cooling and heating processes were hollistic and evolving multiple sources? The only way to get cooling when CO2 is spiking 2ppm a year is to have a perfect culmination of factors such as low solar and favorable ocean dynamics.

 

Those days are over tho.

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What a shame, you guys are still living in the past.

Ever think that the cooling and heating processes were hollistic and evolving multiple sources? The only way to get cooling when CO2 is spiking 2ppm a year is to have a perfect culmination of factors such as low solar and favorable ocean dynamics.

Those days are over tho.

Are you implying that nature has zero influence now? If so then science does not support your subjective thesis.

AGW offsets or a better word might be dilutes natural cooling factors. For instance, global temps declined more during the 1946-1977 period from natural drivers that now would have less of a cooling affect due to AGW. Same factors may only produce a hiatus now due to greenhouse gas increase.

But my point is the natural drivers ARE NOT overwhelmed by AGW where they have zero affect.

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Natural drivers will always be influential but the system will start to fundamentally shift as a whole, changing the natural factors into a more pliocene mode.

 

We've seen small previews of this process in 2014/2015 with the enlargement of the hadley cell, especially on the Euroasian side.

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Natural drivers will always be influential but the system will start to fundamentally shift as a whole, changing the natural factors into a more pliocene mode.

We've seen small previews of this process in 2014/2015 with the enlargement of the hadley cell, especially on the Euroasian side.

Hmm...ok. At least you have it all figured out.

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This scientific abstract claims that solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover

 

http://m.phys.org/news/2016-08-solar-impact-earth-cloud.html

 

"The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. "

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17 hours ago, Chinook said:

This scientific abstract claims that solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover

 

http://m.phys.org/news/2016-08-solar-impact-earth-cloud.html

 

"The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. "

Also from the PhysOrg press release " The effect from Forbush decreases on clouds is too brief to have any impact on long-term temperature changes".  The observed long-term global warming isn't due to the Sun.

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