All things Solar

[LakeEffectKing]

[Matt Rogers]

This is a chart I'm keeping that tracks this year against the last cycle and the start of the Dalton Minimum (Cycle 5). It's amazing to see that 2010 is struggling to keep up with the Dalton!

[WXinCanton]

nice graph! Very interesting.. Shame we lost the thread from eastern.

[aslkahuna]

Well we have a fresh start on the Solar thread. Over the cycle I hope to post photos of the more intersting Sunspot regions (if we get any).

Steve

[TXWXCHX]

This is a chart I'm keeping that tracks this year against the last cycle and the start of the Dalton Minimum (Cycle 5). It's amazing to see that 2010 is struggling to keep up with the Dalton!

Thank you for posting this beautiful graph! Yes, it's amazing to see that we've not yet caught up with the Dalton; we're finally getting some flare activity (sunspot 1121 and 1123 today), but nothing like the activity that was predicted for this cycle.

I'd love to see a graph like this with the Maunder, Sporer, Oort and Wolf minimums included as well... I don't suppose you've got one of them just lying around

[BethesdaWX]

Wow, we still have alot of catching up to do to even match the Dalton. I can't wait to see the effects once the lag ends.

We've already seen what it can do with the -AO.

[okie333]

Wow, we still have alot of catching up to do to even match the Dalton. I can't wait to see the effects once the lag ends.

We've already seen what it can do with the -AO.

Will be interesting to see what happens this winter. Remember that November 2009 had a predominantly +AO as well, so the 11/2010 +AO is nothing to worry about.

[kwt]

Wow that really is quite impressive to see how low solar activity is and yet globally we are going to get one of our warmest ever years, in a time when the sun really is quite low on sunspots.

[nzucker]

Wow that really is quite impressive to see how low solar activity is and yet globally we are going to get one of our warmest ever years, in a time when the sun really is quite low on sunspots.

The strong El Niño was the primary temperature signal this year; ENSO is usually responsible for year-to-year fluctuations on temperature.

Solar minimums have a 5-7 year lag period before they have any global cooling effect, which would mean we'd probably start to see the effects of this minimum by 2013 or so. Solar factors are more important on longer time scales; major events like the Dalton and Maunder Minimum cooled the planet off on a 30-50 year timescale, not immediately.

[kwt]

Oh I'm not saying the ENSO isn't the major player because clearly it has been this year, still its pretty impressive given the El Nino weren't nearly as strong as 1998s event we've ended up being as warm as 1998 with a fairly prolonged solar min in place (though nothing obviously compared to some of the more historically slow cycles...for now!) which is only slightly up ticking and probably a slightly more aggressive La Nina.

As you says its something to watch in the long term, esp if we can get a -PDO/-AMO at the same time, wonder how low we could go with the AGW background warming?

[Matt Rogers]

Thank you for posting this beautiful graph! Yes, it's amazing to see that we've not yet caught up with the Dalton; we're finally getting some flare activity (sunspot 1121 and 1123 today), but nothing like the activity that was predicted for this cycle.

I'd love to see a graph like this with the Maunder, Sporer, Oort and Wolf minimums included as well... I don't suppose you've got one of them just lying around

That's a great idea. I should try to match up to those other cases too. This was the most "recent" minimum, so I guess I trusted the data better.

[Matt Rogers]

Oh I'm not saying the ENSO isn't the major player because clearly it has been this year, still its pretty impressive given the El Nino weren't nearly as strong as 1998s event we've ended up being as warm as 1998 with a fairly prolonged solar min in place (though nothing obviously compared to some of the more historically slow cycles...for now!) which is only slightly up ticking and probably a slightly more aggressive La Nina.

As you says its something to watch in the long term, esp if we can get a -PDO/-AMO at the same time, wonder how low we could go with the AGW background warming?

My guess is that 3 of the 4 global datasets (UAH, RSS, HadCrut) will come in cooler than the 1998 peak and as you noted, the El Nino was weaker but certainly we've injected lots more CO2 since 1998.

[TXWXCHX]

That's a great idea. I should try to match up to those other cases too. This was the most "recent" minimum, so I guess I trusted the data better.

It's confusing, isn't it? It's a veritable hotbed of controversy on how to compare sunspot counts from cycles previous to the modern era. Since we may be counting sunspots now which may have been undetectable to observers in prior eras, there's a lot of disagreement on how to interpret data. Many observers allege that we are counting sunspots now which would have never been considered by previous observers, due to the fact that they are too small to be seen by the naked eye. I'm not sure when those "mini" sunspots began to be included in the counts, but it's entirely possible that we would have an even lower sunspot count were we to count only "naked eye" sunspots, making this cycle even more extreme in terms of low activity.

For purposes of comparison, I'm pretty sure there are some charts available for "naked eye" counts of modern era sunspots. I'll see if I can find them on solarcycle24.com...

[Harry]

This is a chart I'm keeping that tracks this year against the last cycle and the start of the Dalton Minimum (Cycle 5). It's amazing to see that 2010 is struggling to keep up with the Dalton!

Very nice Matt.

Very telling too.

It's confusing, isn't it? It's a veritable hotbed of controversy on how to compare sunspot counts from cycles previous to the modern era. Since we may be counting sunspots now which may have been undetectable to observers in prior eras, there's a lot of disagreement on how to interpret data. Many observers allege that we are counting sunspots now which would have never been considered by previous observers, due to the fact that they are too small to be seen by the naked eye. I'm not sure when those "mini" sunspots began to be included in the counts, but it's entirely possible that we would have an even lower sunspot count were we to count only "naked eye" sunspots, making this cycle even more extreme in terms of low activity.

For purposes of comparison, I'm pretty sure there are some charts available for "naked eye" counts of modern era sunspots. I'll see if I can find them on solarcycle24.com...

Hi stranger..

That is a very good point you bring up which i have wondered about as well. How much may have been missed? Heck as is i have a hard enough time seeing some of the ones on the enlarged images and believe me my eye site is good.

[LakeEffectKing]

Thank you for posting this beautiful graph! Yes, it's amazing to see that we've not yet caught up with the Dalton; we're finally getting some flare activity (sunspot 1121 and 1123 today), but nothing like the activity that was predicted for this cycle.

I'd love to see a graph like this with the Maunder, Sporer, Oort and Wolf minimums included as well... I don't suppose you've got one of them just lying around

Probably something like this :

[TXWXCHX]

Probably something like this :

Actually, that's probably pretty accurate lol they kinda flatlined there for a while...

[Matt Rogers]

It's confusing, isn't it? It's a veritable hotbed of controversy on how to compare sunspot counts from cycles previous to the modern era. Since we may be counting sunspots now which may have been undetectable to observers in prior eras, there's a lot of disagreement on how to interpret data. Many observers allege that we are counting sunspots now which would have never been considered by previous observers, due to the fact that they are too small to be seen by the naked eye. I'm not sure when those "mini" sunspots began to be included in the counts, but it's entirely possible that we would have an even lower sunspot count were we to count only "naked eye" sunspots, making this cycle even more extreme in terms of low activity.

For purposes of comparison, I'm pretty sure there are some charts available for "naked eye" counts of modern era sunspots. I'll see if I can find them on solarcycle24.com...

Someone had sent me this "Layman's Sunspot Count" at one point.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

[wxdudemike]

This is a chart I'm keeping that tracks this year against the last cycle and the start of the Dalton Minimum (Cycle 5). It's amazing to see that 2010 is struggling to keep up with the Dalton!

Very nice! Where did you get this chart?

[aslkahuna]

The actual equation for the sunspot number is R= (10g+s)k where k is a constant based upon telescope aperature and the observer. The Wolf number from Zurich for over a Century (and may still be) was determined using an excellent Fraunhofer 80mm refractor with a Polarizing filter. What for many years has been known as the American Sunspot number from the AAVSO's Solar Division was determined by using observations from many observers using various size telescopes (my scope was a 108 mm f/10 reflector and my k was about 0.9). For whatever reason, the American R numbers are usually higher than the International numbers from Zurich and to maintain as much consistency as possible, the latter numbers are and should always be used in any discussion of sunspot numbers.

Steve

[BethesdaWX]

Oh I'm not saying the ENSO isn't the major player because clearly it has been this year, still its pretty impressive given the El Nino weren't nearly as strong as 1998s event we've ended up being as warm as 1998 with a fairly prolonged solar min in place (though nothing obviously compared to some of the more historically slow cycles...for now!) which is only slightly up ticking and probably a slightly more aggressive La Nina.

As you says its something to watch in the long term, esp if we can get a -PDO/-AMO at the same time, wonder how low we could go with the AGW background warming?

"AGW background warming"? Not saying its not possible, and even slightly logical, but, case in point, we haven't warmed at all for 1.5 deacdes... or since the late 90's... this with the Solar Max thru the early 2000's, +AMO/+PDO, and 2 super nino's w/ 70% dominance.

Solar Lags are between 5-9 years after the historic max we just came out of, I wouldn't expect to see any cooling yet.

CO2 mosty likely didn't cause the MWP, yet global anoms were as high or higher than today's.

Using the 2006 SST anomm generally, a cooling trend over the past 3 millenium

[TXWXCHX]

The actual equation for the sunspot number is R= (10g+s)k where k is a constant based upon telescope aperature and the observer. The Wolf number from Zurich for over a Century (and may still be) was determined using an excellent Fraunhofer 80mm refractor with a Polarizing filter. What for many years has been known as the American Sunspot number from the AAVSO's Solar Division was determined by using observations from many observers using various size telescopes (my scope was a 108 mm f/10 reflector and my k was about 0.9). For whatever reason, the American R numbers are usually higher than the International numbers from Zurich and to maintain as much consistency as possible, the latter numbers are and should always be used in any discussion of sunspot numbers.

Steve

Thank you for the clarification! So, for historical comparison purposes regarding current cycle vs. past minimums in this discussion, the Zurich numbers would be considered the most accurate. I thought this might be true but it's nice to hear from someone else on the board so I don't suffer a massive beatdown for using the "wrong" protocols . You wouldn't believe the kind of fury that can provoke on some boards (or maybe you would)...

[TXWXCHX]

Someone had sent me this "Layman's Sunspot Count" at one point.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

The Landscheidt site is a wonderful resource; Landscheit, Smith, Jose et al deserve more respect than they frequently get from some quarters. It is SO frustrating to try and discuss solar sciences/astronomy/space weather on some boards, only to have the uninformed declare it "astrology"!

Here's another website from an observer whom I have enjoyed for some not-so-light reading; perhaps you could use some of his information for more pretty pretty graphs -

http://users.telenet...sens/Index.html

Jan Janssen is well respected in the solar sciences community, and he has some wonderful sets of data (using historic numbers)! I wish I could understand even half of it... my head hurts just trying to grasp the most basic information in all this.

[Matt Rogers]

The Landscheidt site is a wonderful resource; Landscheit, Smith, Jose et al deserve more respect than they frequently get from some quarters. It is SO frustrating to try and discuss solar sciences/astronomy/space weather on some boards, only to have the uninformed declare it "astrology"!

Here's another website from an observer whom I have enjoyed for some not-so-light reading; perhaps you could use some of his information for more pretty pretty graphs -

http://users.telenet...sens/Index.html

Jan Janssen is well respected in the solar sciences community, and he has some wonderful sets of data (using historic numbers)! I wish I could understand even half of it... my head hurts just trying to grasp the most basic information in all this.

Wow, great site, thanks! This Ap index is impressive (as of Sep 2010):

[Isotherm]

Wow, great site, thanks! This Ap index is impressive (as of Sep 2010):

Landscheidt is a phenomenal solar forecaster. I used his research on the Ap/aa index and galactic cosmic rays in my winter outlook this fall. He found some impressive positive correlations w/ the aa/ap and the NAO, and a strong negative correlation w/ the GCR and NAO. All suggest a winter DJF NAO value slightly negative IMO. And thus far, I believe the low solar environment (namely geomagnetic activity, not necessarily sunspots, as the former has a much higher correlation) has had an impact on the increased tendency for blocking in the nern latitudes.

[TXWXCHX]

Landscheidt is a phenomenal solar forecaster. I used his research on the Ap/aa index and galactic cosmic rays in my winter outlook this fall. He found some impressive positive correlations w/ the aa/ap and the NAO, and a strong negative correlation w/ the GCR and NAO. All suggest a winter DJF NAO value slightly negative IMO. And thus far, I believe the low solar environment (namely geomagnetic activity, not necessarily sunspots, as the former has a much higher correlation) has had an impact on the increased tendency for blocking in the nern latitudes.

I look forward to seeing your research! Landscheit truly is fascinating, and his work is really just now beginning to be discussed in an unbiased, open manner by the greater "peer reviewed" science community.

[Isotherm]

I look forward to seeing your research! Landscheit truly is fascinating, and his work is really just now beginning to be discussed in an unbiased, open manner by the greater "peer reviewed" science community.

Txwxchx - I posted my outlook on Eastern a few weeks ago, but reposted here as well last week. Here's the link to it: it turned into a great discussion thread.

http://www.easternus...utlook-2010-11/

Edit: images aren't showing up on that one anymore. Here's a link to the repost on this board:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/390-my-winter-outlook-2010-11/

[DMADKAT]

RIGHT BACK TO ZERO SUNSPOTS TODAY (DECEMBER 19, 2010) CAN'T BELIEVE THEY COUNTED THAT LAST SUNSPOT. I KNOW THOSE TINY THINGS WEREN'T SEEN BACK IN THE DAY. TODAYS SUN IS INDEED IN A MAUNDER STATE AS WE WATCH COLD, SNOW RECORDS DROP AROUND THE WORLD.

[WXinCanton]

Not quite Maunder, Dalton maybe but we have a ways to go to be in a Maunder. AND WHY ARE YOU YELLING AT US?

[DMADKAT]

Not quite Maunder, Dalton maybe but we have a ways to go to be in a Maunder. AND WHY ARE YOU YELLING AT US?

It will be approaching the Maunder at this rate soon, as we are still under cutting the Dalton averages at this point. Winters were brutal in the Dalton years in both Europe and America . Those years seem to be returning . Europe has really taking it hard the last two winters, and we have had a block buster December this year. Definitely something to really watch .

[LakeEffectKing]

It will be approaching the Maunder at this rate soon, as we are still under cutting the Dalton averages at this point. Winters were brutal in the Dalton years in both Europe and America . Those years seem to be returning . Europe has really taking it hard the last two winters, and we have had a block buster December this year. Definitely something to really watch .

I wonder how many people may have been stranded in the blizzard, in a hybrid vehicle, wondering if their decision to "do their part", might have been not such a "good call" if they needed to stay warm in their vehicle overnight....I hear they don't quite generate the heat that my 8 cylinder "hog" does....

But I digress, as much as we don't "know" about climate, the same certainly can be said about the Sun. If the low minimums do indeed correlate with colder global temps (and not measured by Hansen's agenda driven, every other month altered global temp. record) then we indeed run the risk of putting lives at risk by taxing, guilt tripping, minimizing those infrastructures that currently thrive on FF use. (Home heating, automobiles, etc...) If indeed AGW has merit, but still can be suseptible to deep minimums, volcanoes, extreme -NAO's, then I dare say the warmists have an obligation (if objective) to point out that current FF use right now is OK to save lives during extreme cold. But you'd probably hear them more likely say "let them be sacrificed.....the world needs population control"......oh....that's right, that's already been quietly accepted as a long term solution by some in the extreme AGW camp.