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Central PA Thread


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Moderate-Heavy snow falling once again. Have to admit that I was one of those ppl that after the warm weather we had earlier in the month the internal switch to rooting for warmth was flipped..unfortunately I figured we were gonna pay. So now that there's snow back on the ground.. might as well root for the most ridiculous scenario since there's no real gettin out of this lousy pattern without this. :snowman:

I see the 18z models are tryin to edge the precip with the coastal back into central more. I'd be wary of a late westward shift in the models. It just seems like the pattern this season with our coastal events..where about 5-7 days out you'll see very powerful solutions on one or more of the globals, things back east in the 3 to 5 day range and then suddenly things are makin up ground back west in the last 48-72 hours prior. Recall the Sunday 0z European and Tuesday 0z GFS solutions which pretty much focused ground zero over our region with what would be one of the bigger late season storms we've ever seen. There was also the UKMET which had put out run after run of a sub 980 bomb right along the coast as well. I should also point out how far north the precip associated with this first wave got today. At any rate I don't think models will back up toward such extremes, but they could trend back that way some and deliver a heavier event to folks west/sw of just northeastern PA. A faster deepening low would help out at least the eastern folks south of I-80 and if its both that and ends up being further west than modelled than the focus of heavier precip would shift on most of central/eastern PA Something to keep in mind... otherwise, I like the current headline placement of winter storm watches and focus of the heaviest potential snowfall from further NE PA up into NY/interior New England, etc.

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Got about an inch on the valley floor in town, almost 2" at the studios at 1,800'. Higher terrain should be 2-3" I would think.

Mike, I'm leery like you about the GFS. It's odd for it to be the farthest west model this close. Brings several inches all the way back to me tomorrow night. If things get going soon enough (south) tomorrow afternoon, it just might score.

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I'm also treating the GFS with caution. I'm not seeing it coming that far west, or getting going that soon. I'm thinking a 1-2 type storm that will only lay on trees and grass.

It's odd when looking at the 18z mrefs. Every member is west. I thought maybe one or two skewed the mean, but no. Some are even west of the mtns with decent precip. But all come back to at least JST.

0z should be telling. Like I said.... it just might score.

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