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CTP updated forecast.

Wednesday: Snow. High near 40. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. (Eh idk about that)

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

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12z EC showing .25 to .35 leq from JST/FIG east to MDT for Weds

Sfc temps a little warm around MDT, topping out in the mid 40s at 18z. Might be a little warm considering the cold night and clouds arriving b4 daybreak

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Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb.

Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome.

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CTP updated forecast.

Wednesday: Snow. High near 40. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. (Eh idk about that)

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

If, and that's a big word here, but if you have a temp of 40 during the day on Wednesday, you better have some really, really heavy rates to overcome daytime radiation and temps that marginal to see any accumulation.

Just sayin'...

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190072_211892352160974_203514829665393_913457_3389947_n.jpg

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

AWXC UNIT

2:15 PM MAR 29 2011

...THE ANALYSTWXCAST PENNSYLVANIA UNIT HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

...ADAMS, ALLEGHENY, ARMSTRONG, BEAVER, BEDFORD, BLAIR, BUTLER, CAMBRIA, CENTRE, CLEARFIELD, CLARION,

CUMBERLAND, ELK, FAYETTE, FOREST, FRANKLIN, FULTON, GREENE, HUNTINGTON, INDIANA, JEFFERSON, JUNIATA,

LAWRENCE, MERCER, MIFFLIN, PERRY, VENANGO, WASHINGTON, & WESTMORELAND...

...IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TILL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTH PUSHING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE

COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SOME RAIN IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW

AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. OVER 2 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.

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If, and that's a big word here, but if you have a temp of 40 during the day on Wednesday, you better have some really, really heavy rates to overcome daytime radiation and temps that marginal to see any accumulation.

Just sayin'...

It is only going to be warm in the morning. Temps are supposed to fall to 32 by about 4pm.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb.

Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome.

Well, things have come west a bit since 0z on the euro. We still have 3 days and 5 more runs of the euro.

And again, this model isn't the guru it used to be.....so take with a grain of salt and compare the GFS, UK, JMA (which has gotten better), and ensembles to each other.

Have fun!

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Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb.

Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome.

You know, I've been on the "we're going to get more snow down here" syndrome since mid February...

Any chance if this thing pans out Friday that we call this the "Maytown Mauler"? :)

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Mt Holly's discussion of Friday's storm -

COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ALL BETS ARE THEN OFF AS THE

LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE GFS THERMAL FIELD

IS COLDER THAN THE UKMET OR CAN GGEM (HI RES ECMWF NOT VIEWABLE IN

TIME). BUT TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, IT DEPENDS UPON WHERE THE

DEFORMATION BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF AS DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE

THE RAIN TO SNOW REGARDLESS OF LOCATION. PAY ONE NOW OR PAY ONE

LATER, WE SUPPOSE IF THE LOW WOULD TREND FARTHER TO THE WEST, THIS

WOULD INCREASE THE HYDRO CONCERNS PARTICULARLY IN NJ AS EVENT TOTAL

QPF BY THE GFS/CAN GGEM AND UKMET ARE AVERAGING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING OUR AREA AS FRIDAY CONTINUES AND ONCE

THE INTENSITY IS LOST, PRECIPITATION COULD GO BACK TO RAIN. BECAUSE

OF MARGINAL TEMPERATURES THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HEAVY WET

SNOW EVENT, NOT EXACTLY A UTILITY`S DREAM. WE LOADED IN SOME

CONSERVATIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW, BUT THIS SHOULD BE

VIEWED AS A VERY FIRST GUESS WITH REVISIONS TO FOLLOW. BROUGHT MIN

TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING FASTER OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANTICIPATED

MIXING OR CHANGEOVER AND WITH SNOW PROBABLE ON THE GROUND IN PARTS

OF OUR CWA, WENT BELOW MEX MOS FOR MAX TEMPS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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