EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Let it snow baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, with any April snow event, it will be elevational dependent. That's not to say there won't be any snow in the valleys, but the heaviest accumulations - should a large storm occur - would be aoa 1,200'. Once to 2kft, some problems could occur due to the weight of the snow on limbs and power lines. The GFS ensembles have had decent hits and also duds for a few days now. The euro, not the supreme leader it used to be, is weaker and further east. But it has had strong runs (0z Sunday) which blasted the apps. The ECENS show a deep trough and some spread in low pressure position on Friday, which means a storm is still very much on the table there. The 0z GFS is just WOW. Widespread 12"+ from IDI to JST to AOO to UNV and IPT to MPO. Lower susq would miss out on the big stuff, but still get some wet, sloppy snow. The trough has been getting more and more impressive for a few days now, so I would suspect by tomorrow's 12z runs we should have some consensus on whether a major storm will form - but the details of track and qpf will need to be worked out until the 12z Thursday runs. Check out the GFSens for 12z Friday: Hour 84 from 0z ens Error 404 on the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 MMM 12Z NAM is sexy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Error 404 on the link. Fixed. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're spot on! It would vary from 8 to 11:1. thanks Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, with any April snow event, it will be elevational dependent. That's not to say there won't be any snow in the valleys, but the heaviest accumulations - should a large storm occur - would be aoa 1,200'. Once to 2kft, some problems could occur due to the weight of the snow on limbs and power lines. The GFS ensembles have had decent hits and also duds for a few days now. The euro, not the supreme leader it used to be, is weaker and further east. But it has had strong runs (0z Sunday) which blasted the apps. The ECENS show a deep trough and some spread in low pressure position on Friday, which means a storm is still very much on the table there. The 0z GFS is just WOW. Widespread 12"+ from IDI to JST to AOO to UNV and IPT to MPO. Lower susq would miss out on the big stuff, but still get some wet, sloppy snow. The trough has been getting more and more impressive for a few days now, so I would suspect by tomorrow's 12z runs we should have some consensus on whether a major storm will form - but the details of track and qpf will need to be worked out until the 12z Thursday runs. Check out the GFSens for 12z Friday: Hour 84 from 0z ens Excellent, thank you. i have 1 question, what are the chances that a shift north and East could put us in the mix of this? I really inquire because we have a softball game that day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 MMM 12Z NAM is sexy for sure. That possible. It's showing some form of an inverted trough up west of the mtns, with a closed 700 to our west. Surface temps will be tricky in your area. It's just odd to see the SFC low soooo far south and moving ene, and us getting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 A nice 2-4" storm across south central this run with 3-6" into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 That possible. It's showing some form of an inverted trough up west of the mtns, with a closed 700 to our west. Surface temps will be tricky in your area. It's just odd to see the SFC low soooo far south and moving ene, and us getting much. There is a little primary that is in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Excellent, thank you. i have 1 question, what are the chances that a shift north and East could put us in the mix of this? I really inquire because we have a softball game that day.... A shift east and staying strong would help a bit. But again, elevation will be key to sig accums. Either way, I don't think you'd want to play in 2 to 3" of slush or 6" of wet snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 12Z NAM snow print out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A shift east and staying strong would help a bit. But again, elevation will be key to sig accums. Either way, I don't think you'd want to play in 2 to 3" of slush or 6" of wet snow! Thats why we use yellow balls! Just teasin.......thanks Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12Z NAM snow print out. That map shows a screwing for 2001kx and Clearfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That map shows a screwing for 2001kx and Clearfield County. We need to get him some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That map shows a screwing for 2001kx and Clearfield County. Turn your head sideways and look at that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That map shows a screwing for 2001kx and Clearfield County. lol it still shows snow so im good! i want the friday storm.. this winter hasnt been that bad really..i have had 12" on the ground(total) this winter..just no big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just for kicks, here's the daily April snowfall records for MDT. I assume -1 = trace. Believe it or not, there's snow entries for June 5, 1938, June 7, 1931 and July 9, 1930. WOW! (Maybe they measured dustbowl fallout back then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS has sped things up a bit. The model is usually better with WAA precip than the NAM. It almost always arrives faster than expected by a few hours. If this is the case, snow would start in the Laurels earlier in the morning and then spread east. This would support some higher totals than what I posted earlier this morning, adding 1 to 2 inches to those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Storm 2 still hanging around on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just for kicks, here's the daily April snowfall records for MDT. I assume -1 = trace. Believe it or not, there's snow entries for June 5, 1938, June 7, 1931 and July 9, 1930. WOW! (Maybe they measured dustbowl fallout back then). I forgot about the April 7th, 2003 snow. I went back and looked at my notes, we had 4" IMBY . 02-03 was a good year for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I won't lie...I'm not going to lose sleep if this east trend holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is what I have come up with for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 I won't lie...I'm not going to lose sleep if this east trend holds You mean trend east right off the coast? Ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I forgot about the April 7th, 2003 snow. I went back and looked at my notes, we had 4" IMBY . 02-03 was a good year for me I remember that one. It's the only time I think I ever built a snowman and mowed on the same day. Maybe I can dig thru my pics at home to see if I have it. I do not actually believe there was ever a true "snow" in June or July around here. Back then, maybe someone mistook hail for snow or something. But there were snow traces recorded on May 9, 1977 and May 10, 1966 when may then be the latest for actual MDT snow. EDIT: Here's the NWS link to the daily snowfall record table. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/climate/records_query.php?snow=1&length=All_Year&station=H&month1=03-&day1=29&submit=Table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The 12z GFS looks more reasonable compared to the 0z with the Thu nite-Friday storm. Most likely a little fast and too far east, but all in all pretty decent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The 12z GFS looks more reasonable compared to the 0z with the Thu nite-Friday storm. Most likely a little fast and too far east, but all in all pretty decent IMO. Agreed...last night was all out perfect set-up for snow. What are the other models showing? Are they further east with the second system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 I am liking the HI res model. Brings in some heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 CMC jumps aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 CMC looks pretty dry though, esp for State College west crowd here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 CMC looks pretty dry though, esp for State College west crowd here. Still better then the no storm is showed last night. Anyways here is the HI Res model. LOL Well i'll take like 8-12" from storm one. Precip is not over yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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