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Central PA Thread


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Storm rolling through Northern Lebanon is dropping pea sized hail.

Recently been given severe status.

That confirms what I thought...it was quite loud on the skylights at the warehouse in Fredericksburg. Our driveway flooded with muddy water for the second time this week with that storm...what a mess. Up to 4.28" of rain for the month, most of that this week. I want sun!

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That cell yesterday in Dauphin has been confirmed as a tornado.

Petition to rename thread Central Pennsylrania.

Either that or perhaps naming the actual system causing all the rain, since it likes to think it's a dying tropical system with its constant spiraling bands of heavy rain/thunderstorms.

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE STATE WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL WEEK LONG WITHSEVERAL...HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES /AND POSSIBLE MCS REMNANTS/TRAVERSING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND RIDING ALONG A NEARLYSTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED BETWEEN THE LOWER GLAKES ANDMID ATLANTIC COAST.SOME OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING WITH THEM LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ANDSTRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM UNDER THE MILD SW FLOW WITH MOSTDAYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE THEWARMEST WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THECENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80SELSEWHERE.THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE APPEARS TO BETARGETED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT/LEETROUGH PRECEDES THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK /AND COLD FRONT/ SLIDING EAST TWD LAKE ERIE BY 00Z TUESDAY.850 MB TEMPS PEAK AT AROUND 16C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHPWATS NEAR 30MM. IMPRESSIVE EHI VALUES OCCUR DURING...AND JUST AFTERTHE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND REACH 2-3 M2/S2 ACROSS A LARGE AREA OFTHE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.SHOULD THIS SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TOSEE SPC PLACE PARTS OF THE STATE UNDER A MDT RISK OF SVR TSRA /WITHA TORNADO THREAT/ FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE STATE WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL WEEK LONG WITHSEVERAL...HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES /AND POSSIBLE MCS REMNANTS/TRAVERSING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND RIDING ALONG A NEARLYSTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED BETWEEN THE LOWER GLAKES ANDMID ATLANTIC COAST.SOME OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING WITH THEM LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ANDSTRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM UNDER THE MILD SW FLOW WITH MOSTDAYS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE THEWARMEST WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THECENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80SELSEWHERE.THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE APPEARS TO BETARGETED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT/LEETROUGH PRECEDES THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK /AND COLD FRONT/ SLIDING EAST TWD LAKE ERIE BY 00Z TUESDAY.850 MB TEMPS PEAK AT AROUND 16C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHPWATS NEAR 30MM. IMPRESSIVE EHI VALUES OCCUR DURING...AND JUST AFTERTHE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND REACH 2-3 M2/S2 ACROSS A LARGE AREA OFTHE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.SHOULD THIS SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TOSEE SPC PLACE PARTS OF THE STATE UNDER A MDT RISK OF SVR TSRA /WITHA TORNADO THREAT/ FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

the EHI levels are pretty impressive... we are in late may which has brought some memorable outbreaks in the northeast. with high instability and deep shear... we have a pretty decent shot at severe outbreak....and some strong imo just looking at the set up. once the 00z suite comes in tonight, we'll have a much better idea but right now i really like this threat mainly because right now the timing looks perfect.

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tomorrow will be interesting but clouds will likely limit a huge outbreak from occurring. here is CTP's updated AFD

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD WARMER ANDMORE HUMID. BASIC PATTERN OF BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEESTABLISHED AND MODEL FCST LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT ANY LINGERINGCOOL AIR DAMMING SHOULD SCOUR OUT IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOONHOURS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE IN THE WAY OFINSTABILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERESTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.NAM PRODUCES MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1KM EHI`S OF 1.5 TO2.5 OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THERETREATING WARM FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT CAN GAIN SOME GUSTO WILLHAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE...ELEVATING THE SEVERE/TORNADICPOTENTIAL. AS ALWAYS...THE LIMITATION WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICHAT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE CONSIDERABLE OVER MUCH OF THE

REGION...ESPECIALLY THE EAST.

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You obviously don't have much to do outside, Zack.

Enough with the rain, already.

I'm so far behind because of the rain. It took me 5 hours to mow Saturday, normally takes me 2- 2 1/2 tops. I haven't even got the garden in yet.

off topic. heading your way tuesday (E-town HS) for 1st round playoff game......that is if we don't get rained out

and we currently have Lt. rain in Harrisburg, i know, no big shock

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I'm so far behind because of the rain. It took me 5 hours to mow Saturday, normally takes me 2- 2 1/2 tops. I haven't even got the garden in yet.

off topic. heading your way tuesday (E-town HS) for 1st round playoff game......that is if we don't get rained out

and we currently have Lt. rain in Harrisburg, i know, no big shock

Well now, how about that? My daughter has a softball game Tuesday night (6pm) in E-town right down from the high school! (She plays 10U)

Good luck, by the way...

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