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Predicting the weather around here is becoming about as easy as doing it for say, San Diego... just with rain instead of sunshine. What a miserable weather pattern.

Agreed. I can barely remember any nice days this Spring so far.

We're currently running 4.00"+ above normal with precip YTD. We should have a little over 9.00", but we're right around 13.30"-13.40" I think.

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Agreed. I can barely remember any nice days this Spring so far.

We're currently running 4.00"+ above normal with precip YTD. We should have a little over 9.00", but we're right around 13.30"-13.40" I think.

Yeah, at home in Lebanon County we should be around 9-10" so far, and by tomorrow will likely be over 16" for the year...blech.

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Agreed. I can barely remember any nice days this Spring so far.

We're currently running 4.00"+ above normal with precip YTD. We should have a little over 9.00", but we're right around 13.30"-13.40" I think.

Any thoughts on when we might get 3 days or so of dry weather?

Also, what a horrible Good Friday.

Yea this is honestly pretty much the wettest pattern I've ever seen as far as I can remember, which isn't too far back being 25 haha. But still, I haven't really tried diving into any hard numbers at the climo sites yet but I'd have to think this could easily end up being the wettest April on record in parts of PA. Just came upon a source saying Williamsport's monthly record rainfall was 7.01" so they're already close.

To answer your question Jamie, it looks like the models are trying to squeeze a run from either mon-wed or tue-thur in a dry, warm regime before a system later that week. Before then though.. ugh. Thursday and/or Friday maybe ok this week.. we'll see. This wet pattern appears to continue for the most part in the models. With the temps below average in the northern tier of the US and early summer busting into the deep south states, we're unfortunately stuck in the middle of a major gradient causing all this really wet weather. It may be a couple weeks or so before we break into a much drier pattern as the seasonal northward movement of the jet eventually gets further north and takes us more out of the crosshairs of being drilled with rain 5/7 days a week. Later this spring might get interesting as far as a major severe weather event or two if the pattern continues to be active.

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Yea this is honestly pretty much the wettest pattern I've ever seen as far as I can remember, which isn't too far back being 25 haha. But still, I haven't really tried diving into any hard numbers at the climo sites yet but I'd have to think this could easily end up being the wettest April on record in parts of PA. Just came upon a source saying Williamsport's monthly record rainfall was 7.01" so they're already close.

To answer your question Jamie, it looks like the models are trying to squeeze a run from either mon-wed or tue-thur in a dry, warm regime before a system later that week. Before then though.. ugh. Thursday and/or Friday maybe ok this week.. we'll see. This wet pattern appears to continue for the most part in the models. With the temps below average in the northern tier of the US and early summer busting into the deep south states, we're unfortunately stuck in the middle of a major gradient causing all this really wet weather. It may be a couple weeks or so before we break into a much drier pattern as the seasonal northward movement of the jet eventually gets further north and takes us more out of the crosshairs of being drilled with rain 5/7 days a week. Later this spring might get interesting as far as a major severe weather event or two if the pattern continues to be active.

where was this pattern 2 months ago?

now that would have been fun...

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Yea this is honestly pretty much the wettest pattern I've ever seen as far as I can remember, which isn't too far back being 25 haha. But still, I haven't really tried diving into any hard numbers at the climo sites yet but I'd have to think this could easily end up being the wettest April on record in parts of PA. Just came upon a source saying Williamsport's monthly record rainfall was 7.01" so they're already close.

To answer your question Jamie, it looks like the models are trying to squeeze a run from either mon-wed or tue-thur in a dry, warm regime before a system later that week. Before then though.. ugh. Thursday and/or Friday maybe ok this week.. we'll see. This wet pattern appears to continue for the most part in the models. With the temps below average in the northern tier of the US and early summer busting into the deep south states, we're unfortunately stuck in the middle of a major gradient causing all this really wet weather. It may be a couple weeks or so before we break into a much drier pattern as the seasonal northward movement of the jet eventually gets further north and takes us more out of the crosshairs of being drilled with rain 5/7 days a week. Later this spring might get interesting as far as a major severe weather event or two if the pattern continues to be active.

Thanks.....I think arrowheadsmiley.png

I thought the same on severe weather. May might have a few, like you said.

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Wow, compared to earlier this morning say 4AM, the radar has really dried out. Had a few plain thunderstorms come through around 430AM and brought just over half an inch of rain, no big deal really. I wondering if the sun can peak through the cloud cover in a couple hours to possibly get some heating going before the cold front pushes by.

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Wow, compared to earlier this morning say 4AM, the radar has really dried out. Had a few plain thunderstorms come through around 430AM and brought just over half an inch of rain, no big deal really. I wondering if the sun can peak through the cloud cover in a couple hours to possibly get some heating going before the cold front pushes by.

yeah, its very overcast here in harrisburg.

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Sun's coming out down here now...you can see the thinning cloud deck in Lancaster on your image.

Yep, sun is peeking out in Harrisburg......

FYI. we have no water again. I understand HACC closed again, but the State is in after 2 days off and a 2 hour delay this am. They brought in Porta toilets for them. 1 per every 900 employees :facepalm:

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Looks like we should be ok for practice 330-530 today. It seems the chances of severe weather have diminished. Am i seeing that right?

I would think it only would stay par or increase with the sun coming out.

HRRR starting to hone in on a line developing across the valley later this evening.

cref_t3sfc_f05.png

Compared to an earlier run.

cref_t3sfc_f07.png

*hotlinked

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 172NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK405 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSPAC001-009-011-013-015-025-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-093-097-099-103-107-109-113-115-119-127-131-133-210300-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0172.110420T2005Z-110421T0300Z/PA. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREADAMS BEDFORD BERKSBLAIR BRADFORD CARBONCENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIACUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FRANKLINFULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATALACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANONLEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMINGMIFFLIN MONROE MONTOURNORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PIKESCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVANSUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNEWYOMING YORK$$ATTN...WFO...CTP...BGM...PHI...
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That front didn't play around. Was very windy earlier and it's down to 55 already.

This has been showing up for a few runs now on the euro and nam, and now the gfs:

nam_ref_042m.gif

With 850s and 6hr precip:

nam_pcp_042m.gif

This could get ugly on Friday. The Laurels northward could be in for a few inches of wet snow above 1800', and a cold rain/snow mix elsewhere. That high in new england is impressive.

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This has been showing up for a few runs now on the euro and nam, and now the gfs:

nam_ref_042m.gif

With 850s and 6hr precip:

nam_pcp_042m.gif

This could get ugly on Friday. The Laurels northward could be in for a few inches of wet snow above 1800', and a cold rain/snow mix elsewhere. That high in new england is impressive.

NAM continues the trend. Damn, it almost looks like straight snow here.

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This has been showing up for a few runs now on the euro and nam, and now the gfs:

This could get ugly on Friday. The Laurels northward could be in for a few inches of wet snow above 1800', and a cold rain/snow mix elsewhere. That high in new england is impressive.

DIE WINTER DIE!

This is getting seriously disgusting. Snow on April 22nd would just be running up the score on us.

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