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Central PA Thread


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Boy is tomorrow going to suck. Looks like even some high-elevation snow.

Yeah..... :gun_bandana:

Tomorrow evening and night might be quite a show around here. Higher elevations above 2kft may see some real issues with the weight/amounts of snow. Geesh.

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Just had a thunderstorm roll through, sending me running outside to get my windows up on my truck since I had completely forgotten they were down. Second storm off to the south that just went through JST looks to clip here too. Temps were about 77 and fell to 71.

Def not thrilled about this secondary wave making an all day rain event tomorrow for everyone, as well as maybe even some very high elevation wet snow as Tony had said. It def has the look of one on the models with the pool of sub 546 thickness residing in western PA on the GFS and NAM. But for pretty much everyone, yet another rain storm..followed by what looks like another one for the weekend.

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Just had a thunderstorm roll through, sending me running outside to get my windows up on my truck since I had completely forgotten they were down. Second storm off to the south that just went through JST looks to clip here too. Temps were about 77 and fell to 71.

Def not thrilled about this secondary wave making an all day rain event tomorrow for everyone, as well as maybe even some very high elevation wet snow as Tony had said. It def has the look of one on the models with the pool of sub 546 thickness residing in western PA on the GFS and NAM. But for pretty much everyone, yet another rain storm..followed by what looks like another one for the weekend.

Ugh. Next week looks chilly, also.

I bet these garden variety storms/showers has put a hurt on the severe threat, correct?

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It seems the chances for big storms in central/northern PA is declining thanks to these showers that passed through. It appears to be clearing out a little, but there probably is little time for the atmosphere to destabilize again for these areas. Places to the south and east appear to have a better chance later this evening.

Vis satellite:

sat_24.gif

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Ugh. Next week looks chilly, also.

I bet these garden variety storms/showers has put a hurt on the severe threat, correct?

Well, the sun has actually snuck back out here in the last 10-15 minutes. I think if we can get a period of a couple hours where we get at least some sun, we could fire off some more storms. If I were to throw an update on the severe outlook from this morning, i'd probably axe the 30% completely or focus it towards SE PA... but probably just axe it and keep the 15% zone. Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis stuff I just don't really see any overly good parameters outside of the good shear values. The central counties has/had some of the best surface lapses and a bit of CAPE so that's likely what fired off these quick storms. Mid level lapse rates though are just not there in western PA and they only start to get better once to us. Eastern PA and southeast NY look OK in that dept.

The best parameter I see attm with regards to the wind potential other than the shear is the downdraft CAPE, which is something that can measure the strength of thunderstorm downdrafts.

post-1507-0-16457000-1302549708.gif

Just like the mid-level lapse rates, it gets better the further east and southeast one goes. Unless theres a really good recovery of parameters in western PA, which might not happen... I think the overall threat of more widespread severe weather has shifted roughly east of about an AOO to Elmira, NY line.

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Afternoon CTP long term portion regarding potential snow, looks like a fun time to be up on top of say.. Blue Knob.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE CUTOFF IS NOW AGREED UPON BY ALMOST EVERY MDL AND PERTURBATION

OF THE ENSEMBLES...AND WILL CREATE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...LLVL ERLY

FLOW INTO THE STATE. IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING THAT THE TEMPS ARE

APRIL-LIKE...BECAUSE IT COULD MAKE SOME DECENT SNOW IF IT WERE JAN

OR FEB. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE CHC FOR RAIN LINGERS ALL OF MON

NIGHT AND STRETCHES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SFC/CLOSED UPPER LOW /RIGHT IN THE

SWEET SPOT FOR THE LAURELS/ FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN NJ PER THE

LATEST 06Z/12Z GUIDANCE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET

COUNTIES /AOA 2200 FT/ ARE UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY WET

SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...CONSIDERING 925 MB WET

BULBS TEETERING ON ZERO C...AND 850 MB WET BULBS SLIDING TO JUST

BELOW 0C BY 06Z WED...WITH THE NOSE OF THE -3 TO -4 ST DEVIATION

NERLY LLJ POINTED RIGHT INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN. NAM HAS SFC

TEMPS COOLING TO 33-36F IN THIS SAME ARE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A CHILLY/SOAKING RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IS APPEARING MORE

LIKELY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WED.

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My wife and i decided to plant a garden. (the decision was made yesterday) We are going to start small, 8x10... i have to scramble now to get the lumber, etc. My dad had a big garden, but i never have, so it should be an experience.

It's fun trying to figure out what all you are going to plant. Type of tomatoes etc.

Hardest part was trying to keep up with the weeds. I was always around gardens growing up. And I had some big gardens myself. But now all my wife plants is a few tomatoes and peppers.

I also have seen some cool organic gardens that use very little space.

Shorts on today...were getting closer. Humidity was up in the 70's earlier which made it seem warmer.

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It's fun trying to figure out what all you are going to plant. Type of tomatoes etc.

Hardest part was trying to keep up with the weeds. I was always around gardens growing up. And I had some big gardens myself. But now all my wife plants is a few tomatoes and peppers.

I also have seen some cool organic gardens that use very little space.

Shorts on today...were getting closer. Humidity was up in the 70's earlier which made it seem warmer.

I have a 18X100 garden (plus a few small ones on the side) that's all organic.

What I do for weeds is throw all my grass clippings in there as mulch. Doesn't entirely stop them but it helps a lot.

I start planning in December, lol, so I make sure I get what I want from the seed places I order from, like Baker Creek, Heirloom Seeds, etc. I do all heirlooms also.

The toughest place in PA to garden would have to be northcentral. I mean, they can get frost in June and August, lol.

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I have a 18X100 garden (plus a few small ones on the side) that's all organic.

What I do for weeds is throw all my grass clippings in there as mulch. Doesn't entirely stop them but it helps a lot.

I start planning in December, lol, so I make sure I get what I want from the seed places I order from, like Baker Creek, Heirloom Seeds, etc. I do all heirlooms also.

The toughest place in PA to garden would have to be northcentral. I mean, they can get frost in June and August, lol.

Tell me about it, we have a HUGE garden, almost an acre big, full of corn, tomatos, potatos, peppers, strawberries, squash, onions, beans, you name it we have it. I love it because its all organic plus we have enough to where my Mom cans all the leftovers for the winter. It sucks sometimes because its almost impossible to determine when the last frost is going to be :gun_bandana:

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I was wondering what might happen up on say Port Matilda Mountain near Philipsburg or even Skytop. Probably just flakes.

It's going to be soooo marginal for anyone. The best place is above 22 or 2300 feet like ctp said. We had an event a few weeks ago that had mostly rain for many of us. Eastern Cambria and eastern Somerset counties got slammed with 5 to 8" of snow. It was the onset of a warmup. We'll see what the nam delivers in a few minutes... but I'd bet on more rain certainly than anything else.

If this were two months ago, we'd be dancing in the streets already! :snowman:

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Severe fail. Now rain fail maybe? lol 1-2" possible. It probably fails too.

That sounds high. I would say an inch is certainly possible tho.

Still looks marginal back this way for snow tomorrow night and Weds AM. Nam 925 temps get cool enough by 2 or 3 am, but the precip is lighter then. It's still enough to produce some light accums however above 2kft.

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That sounds high. I would say an inch is certainly possible tho.

Still looks marginal back this way for snow tomorrow night and Weds AM. Nam 925 temps get cool enough by 2 or 3 am, but the precip is lighter then. It's still enough to produce some light accums however above 2kft.

Just going what NWS says.

Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperature falling to around 54 by 5pm. Northeast wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

94ewbg.gif

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What a monumental bust on the severe weather today. I hadn't been impressed with the prospects of an outbreak a few days ago but warmed up to them in the last couple days. Shoulda known better.. although i'm pretty surprised that we had virtually no warned cells in the entire region. Just didn't happen today.

It's back to the routine of crappy rainstorms and chilly temps tomorrow night, new NAM fwiw doesn't seem to be as robust with QPF as it did on todays 12z. P-types do flash a lil blue in the mountains, and 850s cool to zero eventually.. so some very high elevation snows remain possible.

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Tell me about it, we have a HUGE garden, almost an acre big, full of corn, tomatos, potatos, peppers, strawberries, squash, onions, beans, you name it we have it. I love it because its all organic plus we have enough to where my Mom cans all the leftovers for the winter. It sucks sometimes because its almost impossible to determine when the last frost is going to be :gun_bandana:

lol....people will see my garden and say, hey, you have a big garden. Then I hear about these gardens and think no I don't.

I bet it sucks with frost up there.

We had a decent break in the rain but now it's back. Miserable.

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lol....people will see my garden and say, hey, you have a big garden. Then I hear about these gardens and think no I don't.

I bet it sucks with frost up there.

We had a decent break in the rain but now it's back. Miserable.

I remember growing up my Grandfather had a big garden. Back then no rototillers, he dug it by hand. He would come home from work, eat supper and then dig garden.

Frosts we was looking for all kinds of stuff to cover the plants. And I used to help him carry water to water the plants.

The big reward was he would take us for an ice cream cone.

Good Memories

Light rain starting here. 0.04" of rain so far today.

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lol....people will see my garden and say, hey, you have a big garden. Then I hear about these gardens and think no I don't.

I bet it sucks with frost up there.

We had a decent break in the rain but now it's back. Miserable.

Lol yeah I know what you mean, but around here and practically all the rural areas its fairly normal to have massive gardens and practically farms. Its funny because alot of people have called Potter and McKean counties the modernized amish. Alot of families are very self-sufficient here, but live like any other modernized city family, I guess that life-style can apply to any rural area just because families can own vast amounts of land. I love it and wouldn't trade it for anything, I'm very fortunate to have homemade/cooked meals most every night, my roomates envied me when I brought canned jams, fresh baked breads/deserts to the dorm, but of course I shared lol :thumbsup:

Yeah the frost are absolutely miserable, I remember a few years ago we had a late frost in late June , the sad thing is there are records of July and August frost here :arrowhead: We just have to cover everything up and hope nothing dies . If it wasn't for the rototiller, life would suck lol.

I'm wondering how much QPF we are going to get with this cutoff low before it moves on out, so far only .28".

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